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Why was Bernie so sure he was going to win? (Original Post) redstateblues Apr 2016 OP
Cuz....oligarchs! Banksters! CorkySt.Clair Apr 2016 #1
Shenanigans! Indydem Apr 2016 #9
It's about money to fly to Rome. RandySF Apr 2016 #2
Candidates live in a bubble nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #3
And they look to the good news in reports just like their supporters The Second Stone Apr 2016 #29
Yes, they need to keep themselves revved up. Hortensis Apr 2016 #46
Tad and Jeff playing him like a fiddle. $$$. nt LexVegas Apr 2016 #4
This. nt msanthrope Apr 2016 #8
I think we're seeing the real Bernie. Codeine Apr 2016 #5
Weaver and Devine are getting rich behind this nonsense, and they got a bug in his ear alcibiades_mystery Apr 2016 #6
i think candidates just say that to motivate people to vote. i'm pretty sure everyone does this La Lioness Priyanka Apr 2016 #7
Team Used Car (Devine Weaver) told him he'd win, I don't think Sanders is a details kinda guy uponit7771 Apr 2016 #10
Like FOX told Romney he was going to win. nt Jitter65 Apr 2016 #35
GDP is so quiet LOL- Everyone went to bed- Time to sing..a lullaby snooper2 Apr 2016 #11
He's listening to Weaver and Devine. They haven't served him well. brush Apr 2016 #12
and they send him on this misguided mission to Rome in the critical days of the primary DrDan Apr 2016 #45
Yes, yes — a Don Quixote mission if there ever was one. brush Apr 2016 #61
He's a politician. nt onehandle Apr 2016 #13
The numbers were pretty close. So why not? Rex Apr 2016 #14
But ya gotta say, the NY map is pretty pre-dominantly Sanders floppyboo Apr 2016 #26
Did you mean to reply to me? Rex Apr 2016 #27
oh, it looks like I'm replying to you, but only the first part! floppyboo Apr 2016 #68
Yeah I don't want him quitting at all, he needs to go the distance imo. Rex Apr 2016 #73
Bernie wins Jupiter! LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #59
What are you going on about? Don't let that NY map fool you. The votes are in NYC metro area . . . brush Apr 2016 #64
no. I think it's valid to talk about area. you win, no questions, but... I like the other metric ;) floppyboo Apr 2016 #69
He wasn't, but you don't go out there and say "we're going to LOSE tomorrow!" (nt) Recursion Apr 2016 #15
He knew he was going to lose all along. frazzled Apr 2016 #16
He has been in the next state the day of the vote all along. nt floppyboo Apr 2016 #28
And to keep them sending money. brush Apr 2016 #67
He didn't anticipate massive election fraud by the Democratic party AgingAmerican Apr 2016 #17
And there it is.... Adrahil Apr 2016 #50
You know why he didn't anticipate it? COLGATE4 Apr 2016 #57
The campaign's internal polling showed a close race CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #18
You realize that you have no idea what their internal polling said? brooklynite Apr 2016 #20
I heard Bernie at his PA rally, confidently discussing that they were going to do very well CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #21
"I heard Bernie at his PA rally" COLGATE4 Apr 2016 #58
Is it any wonder why the disillusioned voter is so disillusioned? LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #63
No. I find disillusioned people generally COLGATE4 Apr 2016 #66
Labeling people and disparaging them CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #72
I see that the word of the day is "disillousioned." CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #71
What are you suggesting? That Bernie didn't do internal polling? CoffeeCat Apr 2016 #70
He wasnt really workinclasszero Apr 2016 #19
Because he's a politician and politicians always say that -- Duh Armstead Apr 2016 #22
I believe he was being optimistic Dem2 Apr 2016 #23
Umm, no one run's for president by saying they won't win. Nt killbotfactory Apr 2016 #24
He never thought he would win New York... Silver_Witch Apr 2016 #25
And check out the very large margins he won by outside of NY NY floppyboo Apr 2016 #30
Huge Margins!!! Silver_Witch Apr 2016 #32
YUP! and outside of the financial and corporate districts he lost 3. Not surprised floppyboo Apr 2016 #33
He was sporting his "petulantly purple" look tonight (as I call it). Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #31
better than beige any day! nt floppyboo Apr 2016 #34
Not particularly healthy, though. Looks like a gasket about to blow. Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #36
better than pond scum floppyboo Apr 2016 #37
not pond scum, that's green - I like green. more like tree puke pollen floppyboo Apr 2016 #38
just don't mess with purple. That's an ascendant color and shouldn't be dissed floppyboo Apr 2016 #39
Do you use pond scum as a health supplement or source of nutrition? I'm afraid your non sequitur Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #40
shoot, that's not what I read. I thought you thought gaskets were purple floppyboo Apr 2016 #42
Probably because of this - Bernie is the lighter shade of blue.... jillan Apr 2016 #41
Such good news! Glad someone has the district count. floppyboo Apr 2016 #44
Reality check: delegates are awarded by Congressional district, not county onenote Apr 2016 #52
thanks! floppyboo Apr 2016 #55
There are 27 congressional districts in NY HillareeeHillaraah Apr 2016 #49
I don't think candidates ever predict losing! Onlooker Apr 2016 #43
He knew a win was a stretch... pat_k Apr 2016 #47
See this thread, redstateblues~ Cha Apr 2016 #48
The longer Bernie stays in the race, the more left Hillary has to run. B Calm Apr 2016 #51
Because the rallies were YUGE firebrand80 Apr 2016 #53
like this....sanders keeps getting contributions and there are many around sanders who benefit beachbum bob Apr 2016 #54
He thought the dirty tricks and emergency legal actions NurseJackie Apr 2016 #56
Perhaps he knew, but was not telling the truth so that he could raise more campaign contributions Freddie Stubbs Apr 2016 #60
Delusional? MoonRiver Apr 2016 #62
The Bernie Sanders camp rock Apr 2016 #65

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
46. Yes, they need to keep themselves revved up.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:15 AM
Apr 2016

Also entirely common, politicians in his position always insist they are going to win with tremendous conviction. But good performances don't mean people should take political posturing seriously. He may be unfortunately narrow in his vision, but I see no reason to believe he did not understand his chances perfectly well.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
6. Weaver and Devine are getting rich behind this nonsense, and they got a bug in his ear
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:13 AM
Apr 2016

He likes the cheering, I think. Been warned against since the days of the agora. You get a taste for that adulation, and you throw all good sense and perspective out the window. At least, you do if you're a weak person, as Sanders increasingly appears to be. His will be a sad little footnote to history.

 

La Lioness Priyanka

(53,866 posts)
7. i think candidates just say that to motivate people to vote. i'm pretty sure everyone does this
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:13 AM
Apr 2016

if you don't suggest you are going to win, why would your supporters show up?

brush

(53,784 posts)
12. He's listening to Weaver and Devine. They haven't served him well.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:17 AM
Apr 2016

Last edited Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:50 AM - Edit history (1)

How did they expect him to win really? He just joined the party 9 months ago, hasn't contributed to down-ticket dems out of the huge sums he's collected, seemed to focus mostly on white votes, and his supporters have been calling Clinton, a lying, corrupt, corporate whore who is about to be perp-marched away in cuffs for months.

Not a winning formula.

DrDan

(20,411 posts)
45. and they send him on this misguided mission to Rome in the critical days of the primary
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:02 AM
Apr 2016

Last edited Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:49 AM - Edit history (1)

somehow thinking everyone would praise him for taking a higher path. But it came across more accurately like the political ploy it was

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
14. The numbers were pretty close. So why not?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:19 AM
Apr 2016

Besides, why would he think he was going to lose? That would be a strange strategy imo.

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
26. But ya gotta say, the NY map is pretty pre-dominantly Sanders
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:54 AM
Apr 2016

mostly by big margins. I get it - not the same volume of vote. So, sometimes that is a good thing - like senators by state. whatever.

I think you have to remember that the sanders campaign is being funded by people - a lot of people - who keep donating no matter what - and the deal is he values and respects that vote.

I challenge you to think of any enterprise you might take on that you make plain from the beginning is going to represent its investors and that their investment in you as their representative will determine the end of the game.

What do you want the man to do???? Would you walk away with the cash? That is what you are insinuating. And that is pretty darn immoral.

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
27. Did you mean to reply to me?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:57 AM
Apr 2016

If so I think you didn't understand my post very well. He still has a chance was my point. How you got to taking the money and running...I have no clue at all.

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
68. oh, it looks like I'm replying to you, but only the first part!
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:30 AM
Apr 2016

I'm challenging the 'quit now' people. He can't quit! He is doing so much for everyone everywhere! Go Bernie!

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
73. Yeah I don't want him quitting at all, he needs to go the distance imo.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:34 PM
Apr 2016

People that complain, sure don't appear to like the democratic process very much.

brush

(53,784 posts)
64. What are you going on about? Don't let that NY map fool you. The votes are in NYC metro area . . .
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:56 AM
Apr 2016

not in that vast space upstate where the votes are sparse.

And even up there in the cities — Rochester, Buffalo and Syracuse, they voted for Hillary.

Guess yours was the same logic dominating the Sanders campaign. It was wrong.

Care to re-think this?

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
69. no. I think it's valid to talk about area. you win, no questions, but... I like the other metric ;)
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:32 AM
Apr 2016

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
16. He knew he was going to lose all along.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:21 AM
Apr 2016

You don't head off to Pennsylvania midday on election day in a state if you think you're going to win it. No poll ever suggested he would win. These campaigns know exactly where they stand days before elections. What was odd is that normally candidates dampen expectations rather than raise them. Over-promising not only is foolish, it makes you look foolish. That's why serious politicians don't do it.

It was just more bloviating and bragadoccio. Big macher stuff to try to impress gullible followers.



 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
50. And there it is....
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:04 AM
Apr 2016

If Nernie loses, it must be fraud.

Undemocratic, low turn out causes that he wins? Those are totally fair, of course.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
18. The campaign's internal polling showed a close race
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:24 AM
Apr 2016

and the CNN exit polling showed that Clinton only had a 4 percent lead against Sanders in New York.

Internal polling is the most accurate polling ever done. That polling drills down into specific cities/areas/counties and reveals a great deal of finely detailed data.

I think Sanders truly thought that it was a single digit race--and also that he was doing extremely well in many upstate counties. If a Clinton single-digit win had happened, combined with Bernie winning the majority of NY counties, he most likely would have won more delegates in New York.

So, there's a lot to process here. I'm processing it too.

Like---How can campaign internal polling AND the CNN exit polls show a very tight race within a few points, but the end result is a Clinton 15-point blowout.

Something seems off. It's a bit jarring.

brooklynite

(94,591 posts)
20. You realize that you have no idea what their internal polling said?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:27 AM
Apr 2016

And yet you're using it as a data point?

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
21. I heard Bernie at his PA rally, confidently discussing that they were going to do very well
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:43 AM
Apr 2016

tonight. He also said that they were going to do better than what people were saying. Campaigns routinely do internal polling, right? If it wasn't internal polling--on what was Bernie's optimism based?

Yes, I'm making some guesses, but I don't think they're outrageous guesses.

It would be odd if their campaign didn't do internal polling.

Furthermore, isn't it evident that their campaign is gobsmacked? The end result is not what they were expecting. Those expectations had to be based on something solid.

Given that the CNN exit polling was close, I'm deducing that the campaign's internals most likely showed similar numbers.


CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
72. Labeling people and disparaging them
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:47 AM
Apr 2016

when they see glaringly obvious problems with an election result--is part of the Republican/Bush playbook.

You can't squelch discussion.

Your schtick won't affect what I think; and it certainly will have no bearing on the Sanders campaign.

You have fun spinning your wheels from your keyboard.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
71. I see that the word of the day is "disillousioned."
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:43 AM
Apr 2016

Noticing that the CNN exit polls (Hillary leading by a very slim 4 percent) doesn't match the final result--and finding that curious, is part of a healthy, normal discussion.

Calling people names when they discuss the giant chasm between CNN's exit polling--and the final result--is not only infantile, it's disingenuous.

Calling me "disillusioned" (which is a strange choice of words) isn't going to change the fact that many are questioning the results.

Exit polls don't lie.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
70. What are you suggesting? That Bernie didn't do internal polling?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 10:38 AM
Apr 2016

Internal polling is as standard as it gets in campaigns.

Are you suggesting that Berne's campaign didn't do some internal polling in New York?

Bernie said throughout the week before yesterday's New York vote that his indications were that he was going to do well and that the race was close.

So, internal polling is some kind of unicorn now? LOL! You guys are silly.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
23. I believe he was being optimistic
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:45 AM
Apr 2016

He's had some positive surprises in the past and perhaps was hoping if he wished it, it would be so.

 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
25. He never thought he would win New York...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:49 AM
Apr 2016

..I guess you don't get the email from Bernie. He has been saying for weeks that all we hoped for was to pull in a lot of delegates WHICH HE DID. We knew Hillary would win by a small percentage, which she did - but Bernie did great and the momentum is ongoing.

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
39. just don't mess with purple. That's an ascendant color and shouldn't be dissed
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:46 AM
Apr 2016

yellows are okay - they can handle it.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
40. Do you use pond scum as a health supplement or source of nutrition? I'm afraid your non sequitur
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:51 AM
Apr 2016

makes no sense.

I was speaking of the health dangers connected with florid, flushed coloring, and you responded:

BETTER THAN POND SCUM.



floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
42. shoot, that's not what I read. I thought you thought gaskets were purple
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:47 AM
Apr 2016

and then I had the time to think about it, and realized you were using a bad metaphor. Gaskets are not purple. So I tried to think of another color for you. Hope it was helpful.

Editing again so as not to clog the thread - purple is better than beige. which I mistook for pond scum! Silly me. So I then suggested tree puke. No?

Anyways, I do have to say, Hillary in beige was quite likeable tonight. Softened her up

jillan

(39,451 posts)
41. Probably because of this - Bernie is the lighter shade of blue....
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:55 AM
Apr 2016


Ignore the comments - they're not mine

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
44. Such good news! Glad someone has the district count.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 03:06 AM
Apr 2016

It is quite the win over the 2 term home town senator when you look at it this way (which I do!!!) and she should be a little careful now. How, if she wants to keep touting her big wins, will she earn a coalition? I can't for the life of me see how she will do it. She can't throw her dirty money at them - so - then what?

No one has ever been challenged like this before.

onenote

(42,714 posts)
52. Reality check: delegates are awarded by Congressional district, not county
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:11 AM
Apr 2016

And Congressional districts are set by population size, not county boundaries. In other words, one Congressional district may contain all or parts of several of the less populous counties where Bernie did well and the densely populated counties where Clinton did well may contain multiple congressional districts.

Posting, or re-posting misleading information suggesting that Bernie might come out ahead in delegates in New York does no one any good.

 

HillareeeHillaraah

(685 posts)
49. There are 27 congressional districts in NY
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:55 AM
Apr 2016

He won 6. She won 21.

Sorry that your candidate lost.

Nuff said.


 

Onlooker

(5,636 posts)
43. I don't think candidates ever predict losing!
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:52 AM
Apr 2016

Of course Bernie would predict a win in the hope of inspiring his supporters to get out and vote. If his supporters listened to the pre-election day polls, they might not have bothered to vote at all. I have no doubt in states that Hillary lost, her supporters were telling her voters that she had a better chance of winning than the polls suggested.

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
47. He knew a win was a stretch...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:23 AM
Apr 2016

...but they had numbers -- exit polls like CNNs -- showing a much closer race (48-52).

Exit polls are expected to be extremely accurate. When he said "we'll do fine in NY" while he was speaking in PA, he was undoubtedly basing his assertion on a reasonable belief that the exit polls were reliable.

And they should have been. This notion of "re calibrating" in a "second wave" to match outcomes is just bizarre. (The bullshit CNN handed out.)

Exit polls are an exceptionally accurate measure of elections. In the last three elections in Germany, for example, exit polls were never off by more than three-tenths of one percent. Unlike ordinary opinion polls, the exit sample is drawn from people who have actually just voted. It rules out those who say they will vote but never make it to the polls, those who cannot be sampled because they have no telephone or otherwise cannot be reached at home, those who are undecided or who change their minds about whom to support, and those who are turned away at the polls for one reason or another. Exit polls have come to be considered so reliable that international organizations use them to validate election results in countries around the world.


http://www.michaelparenti.org/stolenelections.html




 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
54. like this....sanders keeps getting contributions and there are many around sanders who benefit
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:24 AM
Apr 2016

.....just saying, sanders is their golden goose regardless of him losing. Best to keep it all going as long as possible, duping the supporters, perhaps even duping sanders as its so easy to feed his EGO

rock

(13,218 posts)
65. The Bernie Sanders camp
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:02 AM
Apr 2016

Is not based on truth nor facts. How many times do I gotta say it? BS is not reality based!

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