2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMSNBC: "Official--Clinton needs just 29% of remaining delegates, while Sanders needs 71%"...
Insurmountable odds, considering the proportional allocation system used by the Democrats.
Soooooo, looks like that's about all she wrote.
Sanders will soldier on, trying to deny reality and tossing rhetorical "live ordnance" in his wake, but the proverbial writing is on the wall.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)It's over. It's been over. Somebody drop the needle on "Let It Go" so we can move on already.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)when they've got the cunning Weaver and Devine who keep egging them on, lying through their teeth about a "path to the nomination"?
I DO believe that it's mostly the ambitious Jane and the avaricious Weaver and Devine who are the drivers behind this.
brush
(53,784 posts)going. I'm sure Weaver's compensation is hefty as well.
Oh yeah, on until the convention is their rallying cry.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Though some of the congressional district delegates in NY may switch over the next week or so, but that's about the area.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Tamron Hall's news segment on MSNBC about an hour ago.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Theoretically they could change. You don't really need to include them to realize she has a lead thats nearly insurmountable. If you run the numbers using only pledged delegates, HRC needs 41.6% going forward and SBS needs 58.5% to reach a majority.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Since Sanders has been legitimizing superdelegates (stupidly) that means it's pretty much over if he loses PA and MD next week.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)he abandoned wooing minority groups. It's not that he didn't want their votes, he just seemingly had better directions to invest his energy, like using TV time to call SDs and their role corrupt.
And of course, he has had 0 interest in raising funds for mainstream Democrats. That he did give some attention to bringing along a handful of left-radical candidates just underlines the snub.
Yes, we count the superdelegates!
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)She has 1446 now. She'd need to win 67% of the remaining 1380 pledged delegates. That sounds far fetched until you look at the calendar of upcoming states, which is not favorable to Sanders. Next week does not look good for him, and after next week KY, NJ, and CA should be good states for Hillary.
Do I think she'll get 67%? No, but I think 55-60% is likely, and then the number of Superdelegates she'd need would be pretty low (something like 140).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)despite the fact it's complete horseshit.
So kudos to them for that.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)That looks pretty final.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)BreakfastClub
(765 posts)drop out graciously, or let it play out GRACIOUSLY. If he continues attacking Hillary, however, it quickly will become obvious that he was never a democrat and has no intention of supporting the democratic nominee. He used the party to get "exposure." Shame on him. It reminds me of Donald Dump.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)We'll see. But I hope I'm right.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)But, the Sanders we see today is no longer the "pure and principled" one he advertized last autumn.
His ego and ambition have run away with him, I fear.
The adulation of the crowds has gone to his head, and he now believes his own myth.
Will he come back down to earth without crashing the whole Party?
Maru Kitteh
(28,340 posts)But I believe he will snap out of it and take a higher road than they would have him take. Not sure what that road may be yet.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)for a better deal at the convention.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)..by convention.
And so it becomes a matter of wooing super delegates.
Those are the rules.
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)That's not as far-fetched as it sounds if you look at the upcoming list of states. Sanders would need to win over 85% of the remaining pledged delegates.
But let's just say everything from here on out splits 50/50.That gets Clinton to something like 2150 pledged delegates. She'd only need 248 SDs and she has 478 now, with more to be gotten. Sanders would need to convince over 230 of them to switch and not have Hilary gain any more SDs from now to the finish-- and that's assuming that Hillary takes only half of the remaining pledged delegates. The remaining calendar is favorable to her, and she'll likely take more. I'll concede 67% is not likely, but I think something in the 55/45 to 60/40 neighborhood is likely.
Sanders taking the nomination at this point is not impossible, but it is now in the realm of highly unlikely.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)(2,382 Needed to Win) - 4763 1930 1189
Delegates Won - 4051 1428 1151
Superdelegates - (712) 502 38
Not counting Superdelegates (assuming they don't want the outcome to appear as rigged as it actually is):
To win the majority of ELECTED delegates, a candidate needs 4051/2, or 2023 elected delegates.
There are (4051-1428-1151) = 1472 delegates remaining to be elected.
Bernie needs (2023-1151)/1472 = 59% of remaining elected delegates.
Hillary needs (2023-1428)/1472 = 40% of remaining elected delegates.
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)Closed primaries (except RI) and diverse states that are more in Clinton's wheelhouse.
Sanders still has some good states. Oregon and Indiana should both be good for him. He probably takes Guam. However, Kentucky should be a solid Clinton state. WV could go either way. Then we get to June 7th, with NJ and CA.
I'm not certain that HRC will close the deal in May, but I don't see any doubt after June 7th.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)Geez.
Chutzpah.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Yeah, it really isn't. Get a grip.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)before the convention.
Isn't that right?