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Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 11:10 AM Apr 2016

MSNBC: "Official--Clinton needs just 29% of remaining delegates, while Sanders needs 71%"...

Insurmountable odds, considering the proportional allocation system used by the Democrats.

Soooooo, looks like that's about all she wrote.

Sanders will soldier on, trying to deny reality and tossing rhetorical "live ordnance" in his wake, but the proverbial writing is on the wall.

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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MSNBC: "Official--Clinton needs just 29% of remaining delegates, while Sanders needs 71%"... (Original Post) Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 OP
Kicking for visibility. Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #1
And next week those numbers will be even more insane. Codeine Apr 2016 #2
But, how to convince Saint Bernardo and his disciples that it's over, Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #3
Devine's organization gets 800k a month so he definitely wants to keep it . . . brush Apr 2016 #5
It's at just about 60% for Sanders and 40% for Clinton right now Recursion Apr 2016 #4
These figures (29% Hill, 71% Bern) were announced on Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #6
Those numbers include superdelegates jcgoldie Apr 2016 #23
depending on whether one counts superdelegates or not. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #9
Oh, we do. Lol. Sanders abandoned wooing SDs same as Hortensis Apr 2016 #13
I posted downthread about this. HRC could win on pleged delegates alone Algernon Moncrieff Apr 2016 #24
Sanders team has successfully spun this 2383 pledged delegate number geek tragedy Apr 2016 #29
K & R nt Persondem Apr 2016 #7
Oof, look at those numbers. auntpurl Apr 2016 #8
It's over. OVER! NurseJackie Apr 2016 #10
Bernie's chance of being the Democratic nominee is ... NurseJackie Apr 2016 #11
Wow, it's worse than I thought for the guy. He should either BreakfastClub Apr 2016 #12
His behavior and demeanor in the coming days will be VERY telling... Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #16
I continue to be a stubborn optimist and believe he will exit with dignity and grace Maru Kitteh Apr 2016 #26
We can only hope that your optimism proves to be well-founded. Surya Gayatri Apr 2016 #28
I think Devine and Jealous are making a stooge out of him Maru Kitteh Apr 2016 #30
Yep (other than an unlikely indictment), she's got it locked up. Bernie holding out longer, hoping jmg257 Apr 2016 #14
neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to seal the nomination... grasswire Apr 2016 #15
Clinton could take the nomination by winning 67% of the remaining pleged delegates Algernon Moncrieff Apr 2016 #19
Whole lotta numbers being thrown around. Here are a few more: lagomorph777 Apr 2016 #31
That will likely worsen for Sanders next week after MD, CT, PA, DE, and RI vote Algernon Moncrieff Apr 2016 #17
He should be out by next Tuesday if he wants to speak at the convention.... bettyellen Apr 2016 #18
you are making the rules now? grasswire Apr 2016 #20
Can't distinguish between rules and opinions now? Now wonder everything is "authoritarian", LOL... bettyellen Apr 2016 #21
That's very misleading. She still needs over 1,000 elected delegates to win the nomination .... imagine2015 Apr 2016 #22
no it is not right as you well know. (nt) jcgoldie Apr 2016 #25
too bad about a possible fbi indictment hanging over the "frontrunner" nt restorefreedom Apr 2016 #27
 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
2. And next week those numbers will be even more insane.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 11:38 AM
Apr 2016

It's over. It's been over. Somebody drop the needle on "Let It Go" so we can move on already.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
3. But, how to convince Saint Bernardo and his disciples that it's over,
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 11:51 AM
Apr 2016

when they've got the cunning Weaver and Devine who keep egging them on, lying through their teeth about a "path to the nomination"?

I DO believe that it's mostly the ambitious Jane and the avaricious Weaver and Devine who are the drivers behind this.

brush

(53,784 posts)
5. Devine's organization gets 800k a month so he definitely wants to keep it . . .
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:02 PM
Apr 2016

going. I'm sure Weaver's compensation is hefty as well.

Oh yeah, on until the convention is their rallying cry.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
4. It's at just about 60% for Sanders and 40% for Clinton right now
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 11:55 AM
Apr 2016

Though some of the congressional district delegates in NY may switch over the next week or so, but that's about the area.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
6. These figures (29% Hill, 71% Bern) were announced on
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:07 PM
Apr 2016

Tamron Hall's news segment on MSNBC about an hour ago.

jcgoldie

(11,631 posts)
23. Those numbers include superdelegates
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:41 PM
Apr 2016

Theoretically they could change. You don't really need to include them to realize she has a lead thats nearly insurmountable. If you run the numbers using only pledged delegates, HRC needs 41.6% going forward and SBS needs 58.5% to reach a majority.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
9. depending on whether one counts superdelegates or not.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 12:54 PM
Apr 2016

Since Sanders has been legitimizing superdelegates (stupidly) that means it's pretty much over if he loses PA and MD next week.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
13. Oh, we do. Lol. Sanders abandoned wooing SDs same as
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:00 PM
Apr 2016

he abandoned wooing minority groups. It's not that he didn't want their votes, he just seemingly had better directions to invest his energy, like using TV time to call SDs and their role corrupt.

And of course, he has had 0 interest in raising funds for mainstream Democrats. That he did give some attention to bringing along a handful of left-radical candidates just underlines the snub.

Yes, we count the superdelegates!

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
24. I posted downthread about this. HRC could win on pleged delegates alone
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:43 PM
Apr 2016

She has 1446 now. She'd need to win 67% of the remaining 1380 pledged delegates. That sounds far fetched until you look at the calendar of upcoming states, which is not favorable to Sanders. Next week does not look good for him, and after next week KY, NJ, and CA should be good states for Hillary.

Do I think she'll get 67%? No, but I think 55-60% is likely, and then the number of Superdelegates she'd need would be pretty low (something like 140).

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
29. Sanders team has successfully spun this 2383 pledged delegate number
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:46 PM
Apr 2016

despite the fact it's complete horseshit.

So kudos to them for that.

BreakfastClub

(765 posts)
12. Wow, it's worse than I thought for the guy. He should either
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:00 PM
Apr 2016

drop out graciously, or let it play out GRACIOUSLY. If he continues attacking Hillary, however, it quickly will become obvious that he was never a democrat and has no intention of supporting the democratic nominee. He used the party to get "exposure." Shame on him. It reminds me of Donald Dump.

Maru Kitteh

(28,340 posts)
26. I continue to be a stubborn optimist and believe he will exit with dignity and grace
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:07 PM
Apr 2016

We'll see. But I hope I'm right.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
28. We can only hope that your optimism proves to be well-founded.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:38 PM
Apr 2016

But, the Sanders we see today is no longer the "pure and principled" one he advertized last autumn.

His ego and ambition have run away with him, I fear.

The adulation of the crowds has gone to his head, and he now believes his own myth.

Will he come back down to earth without crashing the whole Party?

Maru Kitteh

(28,340 posts)
30. I think Devine and Jealous are making a stooge out of him
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 02:51 PM
Apr 2016

But I believe he will snap out of it and take a higher road than they would have him take. Not sure what that road may be yet.

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
14. Yep (other than an unlikely indictment), she's got it locked up. Bernie holding out longer, hoping
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:00 PM
Apr 2016

for a better deal at the convention.

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
15. neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to seal the nomination...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:01 PM
Apr 2016

..by convention.

And so it becomes a matter of wooing super delegates.

Those are the rules.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
19. Clinton could take the nomination by winning 67% of the remaining pleged delegates
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:30 PM
Apr 2016

That's not as far-fetched as it sounds if you look at the upcoming list of states. Sanders would need to win over 85% of the remaining pledged delegates.

But let's just say everything from here on out splits 50/50.That gets Clinton to something like 2150 pledged delegates. She'd only need 248 SDs and she has 478 now, with more to be gotten. Sanders would need to convince over 230 of them to switch and not have Hilary gain any more SDs from now to the finish-- and that's assuming that Hillary takes only half of the remaining pledged delegates. The remaining calendar is favorable to her, and she'll likely take more. I'll concede 67% is not likely, but I think something in the 55/45 to 60/40 neighborhood is likely.

Sanders taking the nomination at this point is not impossible, but it is now in the realm of highly unlikely.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
31. Whole lotta numbers being thrown around. Here are a few more:
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 03:08 PM
Apr 2016

(2,382 Needed to Win) - 4763 1930 1189
Delegates Won - 4051 1428 1151
Superdelegates - (712) 502 38

Not counting Superdelegates (assuming they don't want the outcome to appear as rigged as it actually is):

To win the majority of ELECTED delegates, a candidate needs 4051/2, or 2023 elected delegates.

There are (4051-1428-1151) = 1472 delegates remaining to be elected.

Bernie needs (2023-1151)/1472 = 59% of remaining elected delegates.
Hillary needs (2023-1428)/1472 = 40% of remaining elected delegates.

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,790 posts)
17. That will likely worsen for Sanders next week after MD, CT, PA, DE, and RI vote
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:05 PM
Apr 2016

Closed primaries (except RI) and diverse states that are more in Clinton's wheelhouse.

Sanders still has some good states. Oregon and Indiana should both be good for him. He probably takes Guam. However, Kentucky should be a solid Clinton state. WV could go either way. Then we get to June 7th, with NJ and CA.

I'm not certain that HRC will close the deal in May, but I don't see any doubt after June 7th.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
21. Can't distinguish between rules and opinions now? Now wonder everything is "authoritarian", LOL...
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:34 PM
Apr 2016

Yeah, it really isn't. Get a grip.

 

imagine2015

(2,054 posts)
22. That's very misleading. She still needs over 1,000 elected delegates to win the nomination ....
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 01:37 PM
Apr 2016

before the convention.

Isn't that right?
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