2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary now has 1,094 elected delegates short of securing the 2,383 needed to win the nomination!
According to The Associated Press tally, Clinton has 1,289 elected delegates to Sanders's 1,045. To win requires 2,383 delegates.
It is extremely unlikely Hillary will pick up over 1,000 more elected (pledged) delegates in the remaining primaries.
So it is still probable that it will be an "Open" Democratic convention.
In that case, the "super delegates" will decide who wins the nomination.
And if Hillary continues to do so badly in the polls and among the youth and independent voters, many super delegates will abandon her, just as they did at the 2008 convention when hundreds switched to Obama.
As I wrote back on Mach 24th:
Especially those in states that Sanders won in primaries.
Democratic office holders don't want to go down with her in defeat in the General Election. They will get off that sinking ship and get
on the Bernie lifeboat."
And, other unpledged Hillary super delegates will follow the wishes of their voters and support Bernie if he won their state primary.
It will be and should be an "open" convention if either candidate fails to win enough elected delegates to secure the nomination.
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onehandle
(51,122 posts)Spolier label coming up...
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)If Hillary somehow captures the nomination the Republicans will pick anyone but Cruz or Trump who they think can easily beat Hillary and strengthen their control of Congress.
Don't you agree?
Loudestlib
(980 posts)Gomez163
(2,039 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)You are counting hundreds of unpledged super delegates who are free to vote for whomever they want, including Bernie.
That's a simple convention fact.
Are you challenging the convention and delegate selection rules?
Gomez163
(2,039 posts)Especially now that he is such a big loser and has crawled back home with his tail between his legs.
CentralCoaster
(1,163 posts)Small wonder that she's losing, about to be indicted, and can barely compete with a socialist.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)are going to abandon a candidate with such an enormous delegate and popular vote lead. Not going to happen.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Did you really mean to use the word enormous?
LOL
Codeine
(25,586 posts)He's in roughly the same spot he was after Super Tuesday. At this stage of the game with proportional allocation it's pretty much the definition of enormous.
Clinton was much closer then this to Obama and couldn't catch him even with a string of late wins. Bernie is straight done. It's all over but the cries of despair.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Do the math. Show me.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Over 50yrs old..I suspect super delegates will remain in Hillarys camp especially as her delegate and popular vote lead continues to expand...the math does not work for sanders, hasn't for awhile...since sanders history of not helping other democratic candidates get elected over the past 30 yrs...and his arms length approach to Democratic Party...not much will go his way I spite of the threats and harassment to super delegates...
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)
samrock
(590 posts)There are only 2 candidates getting delegates. After all the primaries are run how can the leader in delegates not have more than 50% + 1?????
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)He posts the same math illiterate argument every day deliberately obfuscating pledged delegate totals with total delegates necessary to win the nomination. By this ridiculous thought process any winning candidate needs 59% of the vote.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)you may not understand what is happening during the convention.
You seem very confused right now.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Despite your obvious attempts at confusing the issue. Thanks for your concern.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Maybe I can help you..
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Either way not my problem.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)It's not whoever leads in elected (pledged) delegates. If you reach the required number of total delegates needed to win the nomination (2,383) with only elected delegates you win the nomination without needing a single unpledged super delegate.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)What's next for Bernie Sanders?
By Jeff Zeleny, Brianna Keilar and Dan Berman, CNN
April 20, 2016
"At the end of the day the Democrats are going to have to decide who they want to elect in terms of who's going to be the best in November," Weaver said. "And clearly the polls are almost unanimous now that Bernie Sanders is a much more electable candidate in November."
Sanders, Weaver said, would work to win over superdelegates, the collection of more than 700 Democratic party officials and current and former elected leaders free to vote as they please at the national convention.
"They're going to want to win in November," Weaver said, citing Sanders' strong numbers with political independents and younger voters. "If you can't create a coalition with independent voters, you can't win the White House, you can't win the Senate, you can't bring additional people into the House, so this is what has to be built in November. It has to be Democrats along with independents to defeat the Republicans."
