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Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:51 PM Apr 2016

Not a single super-delegate is bound to either candidate

until the convention which takes place in Philadelphia July 25th-28th.

There are still 19 states yet to vote in their primaries and caucuses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

No one can say for certain what the final tally will be in won pledged delegates or popular vote until those states vote.

No one can say for certain as to which candidate the super-delegates will ultimately commit themselves to until the convention in late July.

All manner of things can and will happen between now and then some of it may be predicted, much of it un-predicted but no one has a crystal ball.

Any calls to end the Democratic Primary race now is a disservice to the tens of millions of Americans that have yet to vote.

44 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Not a single super-delegate is bound to either candidate (Original Post) Uncle Joe Apr 2016 OP
All true and thanks Uncle Joe! haikugal Apr 2016 #1
yes! it aint over! nt restorefreedom Apr 2016 #2
I live in PA and I haven't even voted yet! farleftlib Apr 2016 #3
This should be pinned to the front page. nt silvershadow Apr 2016 #4
Sanders should stay in the race. But he should also do nothing that would hurt Clinton geek tragedy Apr 2016 #5
The same holds true for Hillary and her campaign which was "predicted" to win Michigan by 99% Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #9
that was hypothetical, predicted poll numbers. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #12
Your post was a hypothetical assumption. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #13
point being he should not do anything that could hurt Clinton if she's the eventual nominee geek tragedy Apr 2016 #15
I believe that's sound advice for both candidates. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #18
getting into who's to blame won't accomplish much--either between us or between geek tragedy Apr 2016 #20
Your post #15 argues against Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #22
accusations of breaking the law are a dramatic escalation, and should be geek tragedy Apr 2016 #23
"Demeaning nicknames" and what is an "attack haiku"? Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #28
This geek tragedy Apr 2016 #30
I don't think Bernie should drop out griffi94 Apr 2016 #6
Only by #berniemath does Sanders remain a viable candidate Tarc Apr 2016 #7
Super delegates have never overturned the pledged delegate result KingFlorez Apr 2016 #8
That's correct and no one knows what the final pledged delegate result will be. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #10
It's not about knowing anything for certain Corporate666 Apr 2016 #17
I do believe you are indulging in hyperbole and cynicism. n/t Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #19
What hyperbole? Corporate666 Apr 2016 #44
True. But, considering that Sanders is an Independent running as a Dem .. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #11
If Bernie wins the most pledged delegates once "all" the states have voted should his number Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #16
What's the word the Sanders campaign uses? Flipped? Yes, I like that better. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #38
Hint: Bernie gave the Dem establishment the Senate majority in 2010. Waiting For Everyman Apr 2016 #43
Im going to guess Bill Clinton is voting for Hillary Travis_0004 Apr 2016 #14
Enhance and strengthin' the party, or tear apart and create chaos. Keeping telling yourself. seabeyond Apr 2016 #21
The New York Times Editorial Board and AP exit polls from yesterday's primary would disagree Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #25
So? A newspaper wants to keep the horse race going, fuck the health of our party or strength in GE. seabeyond Apr 2016 #29
It's wasn't just a newspaper the AP exit polls from yesterday's primary confirmed as much. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #31
it ain't over 'til it's over, and, as you say, anything can happen betwn now & the convention amborin Apr 2016 #24
It ain't over till Bernie says it's over. Autumn Apr 2016 #26
Till his donors say it's over. merrily Apr 2016 #32
That's something that will never be said cause his donors are going to keep on donating. Autumn Apr 2016 #33
I donated this morning. merrily Apr 2016 #34
I upped my monthly and kicked in extra Autumn Apr 2016 #35
If we throw in another $10 for every nasty post here about Bernie and his supporters, he should be merrily Apr 2016 #39
Damn it I would have to mortgage my house if we did that. Autumn Apr 2016 #42
I hope enough are swayed away from corporate interest. Zira Apr 2016 #27
I do as well, Zira. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #36
you too! Zira Apr 2016 #37
You figured that out, did you? brooklynite Apr 2016 #40
19 states haven't voted yet, until they do, there are no final numbers. Uncle Joe Apr 2016 #41
 

farleftlib

(2,125 posts)
3. I live in PA and I haven't even voted yet!
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:54 PM
Apr 2016

It ain't over til it's over.

It shouldn't need to be spelled out this early but some people are very afraid
of the primary running its course even though they think their candidate is a
shoo-in. Thanks for posting.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
5. Sanders should stay in the race. But he should also do nothing that would hurt Clinton
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 06:58 PM
Apr 2016

in the general election should she be the nominee, as is about 99% certain. Our side winning in November is the most important consideration.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
12. that was hypothetical, predicted poll numbers.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:15 PM
Apr 2016

We're now at a stage where the real numbers apply. Votes and delegates.

If Sanders plays nice, I'm sure Clinton would be happy to play nice too.

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
13. Your post was a hypothetical assumption.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:21 PM
Apr 2016


Sanders should stay in the race. But he should also do nothing that would hurt Clinton in the general election should she be the nominee, as is about 99% certain. Our side winning in November is the most important consideration.



"Real numbers" insofar as total pledged delegates or popular votes are concerned don't apply until all the states have voted.
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
15. point being he should not do anything that could hurt Clinton if she's the eventual nominee
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:24 PM
Apr 2016

No more accusing her of breaking the law, crap like that.

Run a positive campaign on the issues. He shouldn't be talking about her only the issues.

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
18. I believe that's sound advice for both candidates.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:28 PM
Apr 2016

"Run a positive campaign on the issues. He shouldn't be talking about her only the issues."

Hillary's campaign of working to "disqualify" Bernie after he won Wisconsin is what started this recent downward trend.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
20. getting into who's to blame won't accomplish much--either between us or between
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:45 PM
Apr 2016

them.

I can practically guarantee that if he says nothing bad about her, she'll reciprocate.

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
22. Your post #15 argues against
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:51 PM
Apr 2016

the idea of "getting into who's to blame."



No more accusing her of breaking the law, crap like that.



Other than that case of "casting blame," I agreed with your post.
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
23. accusations of breaking the law are a dramatic escalation, and should be
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:56 PM
Apr 2016

left to the Republican primaries.

Along with attack haiku and demeaning nicknames.

griffi94

(3,733 posts)
6. I don't think Bernie should drop out
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:00 PM
Apr 2016

I think he should go back to talking about things like the need for
income equality and climate change legislation.

Keep his rallies going and start drawing a sharp line between the Democrats and the GOP.

Work on getting some of his issues prioritized and be in position to
really contribute to the platform.


Tarc

(10,476 posts)
7. Only by #berniemath does Sanders remain a viable candidate
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:02 PM
Apr 2016

We told you this awhile ago when he had to run the table at around 56%, now it's up to 58% or so. If projections hold (barring Michigan, they are pretty accurate) and Hillary takes 4 and they split RI next Tuesday, that puts Sanders up needing 62% of the rest.

I realize that for the generation used to getting participation trophies and where nobody fails a class anymore because F's lead to hurt feelings, this is tough pill to swallow, but...sometimes in life, you come in 2nd.

Corporate666

(587 posts)
17. It's not about knowing anything for certain
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:27 PM
Apr 2016

it's about probabilities.

It's possible O'Malley could restart his campaign, and win 100% of the vote in all remaining states, becoming the nominee.

It's mathematically possible... so does that mean O'Malley should get back in because he has a chance to win? No. Because the probability is so low as to be virtually impossible.

It's mathematically possible that Bernie will only give up another 60 delegates between now and CA, and it's mathematically possible he will win California by 82% to 18%. But it is it probably, or likely, or even remotely possible? No. It's a virtual impossibility.


Everything from this point forward for Bernie is just about either ego, or jockeying for position in Clinton's administration, or keeping the money flowing to him and his friends. He has no reason to stay in the race.

He will drop out after he gets demolished next week and starts to become a laughing stock.

Corporate666

(587 posts)
44. What hyperbole?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 09:48 PM
Apr 2016

Bernie has no chance to win.

He faces a MORE difficult race in 5 states next week than he did this week in NY. To have any indication that he could pull it off, he needed to win NY. He will be 300 delegates down a week from now. And he's behind in CA and NJ.

What chance does he have? You know he has none when people keep putting the word "mathematically" before the word 'possible'.

It's mathematically possible Kate Upton is going to be waiting in my car naked when I get out of work, profess her love for me and drag me into the back seat. Is it going to happen? No. Neither is Bernie winning the nomination.

Time to cut his losses.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
11. True. But, considering that Sanders is an Independent running as a Dem ..
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:12 PM
Apr 2016

... and has done next to nothing for the Democratic establishment that he despises (aka, superdelegates), how many of HRC's supers do you think Sanders is going to steal?

He's a hint: it rhymes with Nero.

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
16. If Bernie wins the most pledged delegates once "all" the states have voted should his number
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:25 PM
Apr 2016

exceed that of Hillary's it wouldn't be "stealing."

Furthermore you can't "steal" any superdelegates if he or she gives themselves willingly.

Waiting For Everyman

(9,385 posts)
43. Hint: Bernie gave the Dem establishment the Senate majority in 2010.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:40 PM
Apr 2016

The majority for two years of that specific congress, as opposed to the minority. Do you think the Dem establishment benefited from that at all? Gee, I sure do. All of the committees were chaired by Dems instead of Repubs, do you think that mattered? One person was responsible for that, guess who?

Some of those Dems are probably still grateful for that, and any number of other things he has done in 26 years of caucusing with the Dems and almost always voting with them. But that's nothing, right?

Bernie doesn't even mention favors like giving Dems the majority, which is why most grassroots Dems don't know about it, but Hillary keeps track of every little favor she does and every little slight very carefully and never forgets either...




http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/hillary-clinton-hit-list-102067


p.s. As this OP rightly states, Hillary doesn't own the super delegates, and they have ZERO obligation to refrain from changing their minds. I don't think they should even be allowed to pick a side until all the voting is done, because it's misleading and gives the illusion of a commitment which doesn't exist, prejudicing the public's impression of the progress of the election.
 

Travis_0004

(5,417 posts)
14. Im going to guess Bill Clinton is voting for Hillary
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 07:22 PM
Apr 2016

So at the very least, she has one super deligate locked down.

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
25. The New York Times Editorial Board and AP exit polls from yesterday's primary would disagree
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:08 PM
Apr 2016

with you.




Sanders and Kasich Should Ignore Any Pressure to Quit

By THE EDITORIAL BOARDAPRIL 19, 2016

Mr. Sanders’s presence has made this an immeasurably more substantive race, in which both candidates’ policies have been better vetted, and as a result, better delineated. That’s the best preparation for the general election. Yes, Mrs. Clinton’s lead is nearly insurmountable, but it should be voters who erase the “nearly.”

Mr. Sanders has voiced the concerns and energized millions of young people, many of them voting for the first time. His candidacy has forced the party to go deeper on addressing issues like wealth inequality, college tuition costs and the toll of globalization — important points of distinction with Republicans. What’s more, Mr. Sanders’s commitment to small individual contributions has put the lie to Democrats’ excuses that they, too, must play the big money game to win. This is a message too seldom heard in the party that first championed campaign finance reform. That it’s back is long overdue, good for Democrats and good for campaigning. Mrs. Clinton “is clearly irritated by the fact that she has to deal with this guy,” the Democratic strategist David Axelrod said in an interview. “But he’s pushed her on a lot of issues in a positive way, and I think that his young supporters will be bitterly resentful if anyone tries to shove him out of the race.”

Voters are keeping these also-ran candidates going. When Mr. Sanders loses in a state, he raises more money, not less. Voters consistently choose Mr. Kasich as the Republican most likely to beat Mrs. Clinton. This refusal to anoint a front-runner in either party appears in poll after poll, as dispirited voters declare that they simply don’t like Mr. Trump, Mr. Cruz or Mrs. Clinton. This should be a wake-up call to leaders of both parties. They are missing something big about their own members’ priorities, and their mood. A spirited nominating season might teach them what voters actually want from their president. So far, voters are saying they aren’t willing to settle for a party favorite, and don’t want to be cheated out of a choice.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/opinion/sanders-and-kasich-should-ignore-any-pressure-to-quit.html?_r=0






Exit polls shows that Democrats are energized

WASHINGTON (AP) — As New York voters headed to the polls Tuesday, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they have been energized by the primary battles within their parties.

A majority of GOP voters say the candidate with the most votes going into the convention should be the party’s presidential nominee. And many voters from both parties say they’re concerned about the economy and Wall Street.


(snip)

Energizing or divisive?

Two-thirds of Democratic voters say the contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has been energizing for the party, while less than 3 in 10 consider it divisive.

But Republican voters hold the opposite view: Nearly 6 in 10 say their party has been divided by the heated nomination contest between billionaire Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Only 4 in 10 GOP voters say it has been energizing, exit polls show.

In the Democratic primary, about 7 in 10 supporters of each candidate said that they would definitely or probably vote for the other candidate in November.


https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/04/19/the-latest-how-primary-going/8Tv5buSVm9Edlhs8JBT9vJ/story.html

 

seabeyond

(110,159 posts)
29. So? A newspaper wants to keep the horse race going, fuck the health of our party or strength in GE.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:11 PM
Apr 2016

merrily

(45,251 posts)
39. If we throw in another $10 for every nasty post here about Bernie and his supporters, he should be
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:28 PM
Apr 2016

fine until 2020.

brooklynite

(94,591 posts)
40. You figured that out, did you?
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:29 PM
Apr 2016

Here's what you STILL haven't figured out:

Voters LIKE Hillary Clinton.

Elected and Party Officials LIKE Hillary Clinton.

Would they shift to Sanders if he won the popular vote? Most of them probably would.

But he's not. And he won't

Uncle Joe

(58,365 posts)
41. 19 states haven't voted yet, until they do, there are no final numbers.
Wed Apr 20, 2016, 08:34 PM
Apr 2016

As I stated many things can happen between now and then, some foreseen and much not anticipated.

You have no crystal ball.

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