2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNot a single super-delegate is bound to either candidate
until the convention which takes place in Philadelphia July 25th-28th.
There are still 19 states yet to vote in their primaries and caucuses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
No one can say for certain what the final tally will be in won pledged delegates or popular vote until those states vote.
No one can say for certain as to which candidate the super-delegates will ultimately commit themselves to until the convention in late July.
All manner of things can and will happen between now and then some of it may be predicted, much of it un-predicted but no one has a crystal ball.
Any calls to end the Democratic Primary race now is a disservice to the tens of millions of Americans that have yet to vote.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)K&R!!
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)farleftlib
(2,125 posts)It ain't over til it's over.
It shouldn't need to be spelled out this early but some people are very afraid
of the primary running its course even though they think their candidate is a
shoo-in. Thanks for posting.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)in the general election should she be the nominee, as is about 99% certain. Our side winning in November is the most important consideration.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)We're now at a stage where the real numbers apply. Votes and delegates.
If Sanders plays nice, I'm sure Clinton would be happy to play nice too.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)Sanders should stay in the race. But he should also do nothing that would hurt Clinton in the general election should she be the nominee, as is about 99% certain. Our side winning in November is the most important consideration.
"Real numbers" insofar as total pledged delegates or popular votes are concerned don't apply until all the states have voted.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)No more accusing her of breaking the law, crap like that.
Run a positive campaign on the issues. He shouldn't be talking about her only the issues.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)"Run a positive campaign on the issues. He shouldn't be talking about her only the issues."
Hillary's campaign of working to "disqualify" Bernie after he won Wisconsin is what started this recent downward trend.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)them.
I can practically guarantee that if he says nothing bad about her, she'll reciprocate.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)the idea of "getting into who's to blame."
No more accusing her of breaking the law, crap like that.
Other than that case of "casting blame," I agreed with your post.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)left to the Republican primaries.
Along with attack haiku and demeaning nicknames.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)griffi94
(3,733 posts)I think he should go back to talking about things like the need for
income equality and climate change legislation.
Keep his rallies going and start drawing a sharp line between the Democrats and the GOP.
Work on getting some of his issues prioritized and be in position to
really contribute to the platform.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)We told you this awhile ago when he had to run the table at around 56%, now it's up to 58% or so. If projections hold (barring Michigan, they are pretty accurate) and Hillary takes 4 and they split RI next Tuesday, that puts Sanders up needing 62% of the rest.
I realize that for the generation used to getting participation trophies and where nobody fails a class anymore because F's lead to hurt feelings, this is tough pill to swallow, but...sometimes in life, you come in 2nd.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)it's about probabilities.
It's possible O'Malley could restart his campaign, and win 100% of the vote in all remaining states, becoming the nominee.
It's mathematically possible... so does that mean O'Malley should get back in because he has a chance to win? No. Because the probability is so low as to be virtually impossible.
It's mathematically possible that Bernie will only give up another 60 delegates between now and CA, and it's mathematically possible he will win California by 82% to 18%. But it is it probably, or likely, or even remotely possible? No. It's a virtual impossibility.
Everything from this point forward for Bernie is just about either ego, or jockeying for position in Clinton's administration, or keeping the money flowing to him and his friends. He has no reason to stay in the race.
He will drop out after he gets demolished next week and starts to become a laughing stock.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)Bernie has no chance to win.
He faces a MORE difficult race in 5 states next week than he did this week in NY. To have any indication that he could pull it off, he needed to win NY. He will be 300 delegates down a week from now. And he's behind in CA and NJ.
What chance does he have? You know he has none when people keep putting the word "mathematically" before the word 'possible'.
It's mathematically possible Kate Upton is going to be waiting in my car naked when I get out of work, profess her love for me and drag me into the back seat. Is it going to happen? No. Neither is Bernie winning the nomination.
Time to cut his losses.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)... and has done next to nothing for the Democratic establishment that he despises (aka, superdelegates), how many of HRC's supers do you think Sanders is going to steal?
He's a hint: it rhymes with Nero.
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)exceed that of Hillary's it wouldn't be "stealing."
Furthermore you can't "steal" any superdelegates if he or she gives themselves willingly.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)The majority for two years of that specific congress, as opposed to the minority. Do you think the Dem establishment benefited from that at all? Gee, I sure do. All of the committees were chaired by Dems instead of Repubs, do you think that mattered? One person was responsible for that, guess who?
Some of those Dems are probably still grateful for that, and any number of other things he has done in 26 years of caucusing with the Dems and almost always voting with them. But that's nothing, right?
Bernie doesn't even mention favors like giving Dems the majority, which is why most grassroots Dems don't know about it, but Hillary keeps track of every little favor she does and every little slight very carefully and never forgets either...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/hillary-clinton-hit-list-102067
p.s. As this OP rightly states, Hillary doesn't own the super delegates, and they have ZERO obligation to refrain from changing their minds. I don't think they should even be allowed to pick a side until all the voting is done, because it's misleading and gives the illusion of a commitment which doesn't exist, prejudicing the public's impression of the progress of the election.
Travis_0004
(5,417 posts)So at the very least, she has one super deligate locked down.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)with you.
Sanders and Kasich Should Ignore Any Pressure to Quit
By THE EDITORIAL BOARDAPRIL 19, 2016
Mr. Sanderss presence has made this an immeasurably more substantive race, in which both candidates policies have been better vetted, and as a result, better delineated. Thats the best preparation for the general election. Yes, Mrs. Clintons lead is nearly insurmountable, but it should be voters who erase the nearly.
Mr. Sanders has voiced the concerns and energized millions of young people, many of them voting for the first time. His candidacy has forced the party to go deeper on addressing issues like wealth inequality, college tuition costs and the toll of globalization important points of distinction with Republicans. Whats more, Mr. Sanderss commitment to small individual contributions has put the lie to Democrats excuses that they, too, must play the big money game to win. This is a message too seldom heard in the party that first championed campaign finance reform. That its back is long overdue, good for Democrats and good for campaigning. Mrs. Clinton is clearly irritated by the fact that she has to deal with this guy, the Democratic strategist David Axelrod said in an interview. But hes pushed her on a lot of issues in a positive way, and I think that his young supporters will be bitterly resentful if anyone tries to shove him out of the race.
Voters are keeping these also-ran candidates going. When Mr. Sanders loses in a state, he raises more money, not less. Voters consistently choose Mr. Kasich as the Republican most likely to beat Mrs. Clinton. This refusal to anoint a front-runner in either party appears in poll after poll, as dispirited voters declare that they simply dont like Mr. Trump, Mr. Cruz or Mrs. Clinton. This should be a wake-up call to leaders of both parties. They are missing something big about their own members priorities, and their mood. A spirited nominating season might teach them what voters actually want from their president. So far, voters are saying they arent willing to settle for a party favorite, and dont want to be cheated out of a choice.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/opinion/sanders-and-kasich-should-ignore-any-pressure-to-quit.html?_r=0
Exit polls shows that Democrats are energized
WASHINGTON (AP) As New York voters headed to the polls Tuesday, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they have been energized by the primary battles within their parties.
A majority of GOP voters say the candidate with the most votes going into the convention should be the partys presidential nominee. And many voters from both parties say theyre concerned about the economy and Wall Street.
(snip)
Energizing or divisive?
Two-thirds of Democratic voters say the contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has been energizing for the party, while less than 3 in 10 consider it divisive.
But Republican voters hold the opposite view: Nearly 6 in 10 say their party has been divided by the heated nomination contest between billionaire Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Only 4 in 10 GOP voters say it has been energizing, exit polls show.
In the Democratic primary, about 7 in 10 supporters of each candidate said that they would definitely or probably vote for the other candidate in November.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/04/19/the-latest-how-primary-going/8Tv5buSVm9Edlhs8JBT9vJ/story.html
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)Autumn
(45,105 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Autumn
(45,105 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Autumn
(45,105 posts)LOL
merrily
(45,251 posts)fine until 2020.
Autumn
(45,105 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)Peace to you.
brooklynite
(94,591 posts)Here's what you STILL haven't figured out:
Voters LIKE Hillary Clinton.
Elected and Party Officials LIKE Hillary Clinton.
Would they shift to Sanders if he won the popular vote? Most of them probably would.
But he's not. And he won't
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)As I stated many things can happen between now and then, some foreseen and much not anticipated.
You have no crystal ball.