Fun little prop bets for next round of primaries: over/under on when races are called

As I think most people know, I'm a numbers guy, and I got bored last night. So I did a little research, tinkered with a small model and came up with some numbers that I think we can have some fun with.

So here is how this works, I'm going to give each of the 5 states that vote on the 26th along with a "% of vote in" number. That number represents how much of the vote is counted before a race is called for either Hillary or Bernie. You take the over or under on that number for each state.

Obviously, this is just for fun, so no asking me to make a bet for an actual exchange of goods or services. And, yes, I did put work into how I came up with these numbers. Ideally, they represent where half of respondents take the over and half take the under.

Anyway, here are your states and base "% of votes tallied"

Maryland -- 1%

Delaware -- 10%

Pennsylvania -- 20%

Connecticut -- 50%

Rhode Island -- 75%


And a bonus, over/under on Clinton's total delegate spread increasing by 50 delegates



My choices:

Maryland -- 1% UNDER Will be called for Clinton when polls close

Delaware -- 10% UNDER Called for Clinton

Pennsylvania -- 20% UNDER Called for Clinton when Philly and Pittsburgh have enough returns in

Connecticut -- 50% OVER Think 50% is probably right around when it will be called. Expect it to go for Clinton

Rhode Island -- 75%. OVER In my opinion, a true toss-up that won't be called until late. Think Sanders squeaks out a win.


Clinton net delegates +50 OVER Maryland and Delaware will be large blowouts and I expect her to win PA by around 15%.