30+ in PA alone

i think he has a good shot at winning PA. Even is he doesn't, i expect Bernie to go on another winning streak after next tuesday. The map looks good for Bernie after Tuesday. I expect Bernie to win almost every single state that is left in the West.

So far I'm correct. But lets go through it. And remember, everywhere Bernie doesn't win 60-40 (really like 75-25 including Supers) he falls further behind

Bernie win or lose

April 16
CT Loss
DE Loss
MD Loss
PA Loss
RI Loss

May 3
IN Likely loss

May 7
Guam Loss

May 10
WV Loss

May 17
Kentucky Likely loss
Oregon Win

June 4
VI Loss

June 5
PR Loss (probably pretty badly with 60 delegates on the line)

June 7
CA Loss
MT Win
NJ Loss (126 delegates and lose badly)
NM Loss
ND Win
SD likely loss

June 14
DC Loss

I think that may be another large landslide for Bernie.

It will be like Rubio in PR this year.

Feb 1
March 24
April 47 = 71. That's math too. Most of these posts seem to be devoted to denying the numbers of experts like, well pretty much all pollsters, statisticians and political scientists, since none of their numbers add up to Inevitability = Sanders Victory.

Thats all it would take...if he can get to around 100 down by CA, he's in good shape.

She needs 40%; He needs 58% of remaining legitimate delegates (i.e. not counting SDs). That's not a massive difference.

The reason Hillarians are trying to bully us into giving up is that they are scared. They are not as confident as they pretend.

In a proportional race, it is extremely massive.

You'll feel better for a while.

I think Hillary will lose in the three states i mentioned, i believe Hillary will lose those three states badly, and Bernie will be able to win almost all of the delegates in those states.

You assume Bernie won't be able to win a landslide going forward, he has won them before, and he will win some more going forward.

Landslide victories aren't that rare, we have already have a few landslides in just this cycle alone.

This entire race everybody knew what was going to happen. Hillary would have a huge lead, then Sanders would win, then Clinton (now) wins again then whatever until California.

Proportional delegate races don't let you close a deficit like that in reality.

Sanders inadequate strategic planning in the beginning is his downfall. He lost the early lead in high delegate minority states and he will not be able to overcome the deficit.

Now, tell us which states Hillary will win. And remember, Hillary won more votes and delegates in NY alone than Bernie won in the 7 states he won.

WA hasn't finished allocating delegates yet.

Bernie won at least 74 in WA alone. Hillary won 27 or less.
Bernie should pick up a few more during the second step in the process- so we could be looking at 50 delegates won in just one state for Bernie.

I fully expect similar results in the three states i have mentioned.

And lose 16?

I expect Bernie to win at least one state next week. After that, i think Bernie will go on another winning streak.

Bernie will probably sweep the rest of the west. Then it will come do to CA.
I also expect a landslide for Bernie in the Puerto Rico caucus.

Which one(s) ?

Their M.A.T.H. is actually an acronym for Mythological Assumption That Hillarywillwin.

For Bernie to pick up over 100 delegates, he'd have to win all three states by more than 50 points.

You think that's realistic?

Does anyone, other than the OP, HA Goodman and Seth Abramson, think that Bernie will win KY, IN and OR by 50 points?



Sid

it was possible in WA and i expect those states to deliver similar results for Bernie.

Those three states are all primaries, 2 of which are closed to Democrats only.

Sid

If he wins any of those states aside from Oregon by more than 20 I'll eat my own sock.

I'll bear that in mind.

so at least you'll remain consistent.

IN: 83
KY: 55
OR: 61

For a total of 199 delegates. Now let's evaluate this sentence;

Bernie picked up 50 more delegates than Hillary in just that one state alone.

I am talking net, Bernie will net tons of delegates over Hillary in those three states. Bernie may very well take all delegates in oregon just like he did in Vermont.

I just wanna be clear here; you think that Bernie Sanders can take these 3 states by 75%...even 85% for Oregon, giving her a zero there?

This is your belief?

and i do think he will win oregon in a landslide.

hillary has already won landslides this year, and Bernie has also won landslides this year.

And yes, Bernie will win more landslides this year. Landslide victories aren't rare, as we have seen plenty of landslides this year.

Stop pretending that landslides are rare, they aren't.

Even if he wins, I don't see Bernie winning by a landslide in PENN, CT, Maryland, RI or Delaware.
The math is indeed against Sanders.
But, anything can happen.
I just don't see it happening, sadly.

Being that no Democratic contest is winner take all ... all the contests are proportional, it makes it more difficult to make up the difference.

Being that there is only 1 state and 2 islands left that have caucuses (and only for a total of 32 delegates) means that BS needs to win primaries, something that has been more difficult for him

Many of the primaries are closed (as are 2 of the 3 caucuses) and BS has had more difficulty winning in those states.

When you put all these reasons together, BS doesn't have a prayer.

oregon in landslides? He won 50 delegates more than Hillary in WA alone.

She won a landslides in states like texas and mississippi, that is only reason she has an advantage.

But it's all crumbs on the carpet at this point. He's not going to win. And he's certainly not going to get many super delegates unless he actually gets a majority of the pledged. I guarantee it and I can say that because I've witnessed first-hand the utter hate, vitriol and threats being heaped on the supers on Facebook. If I were a super, all those threats (and in some cases, doxxing of home addresses) would absolutely factor into my willingness to switch. Let's see, I think I'll go with the one who didn't endanger my wife and kids.

The states where there have been BS blowouts have almost exclusively been in small states and/or states that have not been very diverse. BS is going to run out of states before he ever leads in the pledged delegate count.

just like he did in nevada.

I REFUSE TO SUPPORT A PLUTOCRAT!

YOU DON'T HAVE TO!

were from caucus states. There's no way he gets anywhere close to the margins he needs in primaries. Especially after he falls further behind next week.

It's been impossible for him to win since Super Tuesday. In order to pickup 100 delegates just between those three states, he'd have to get 70% in Indiana and Kentucky, while keeping Clinton below viability in Oregon, all of which is highly unlikely to happen.

It's proportional.

First of all, 400 delegates are up next week and it looks like Hillary will win the majority of them. That makes her lead even bigger.

Then, even with 20 point wins in the Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky stretch, he'd only pick up 40 delegates. I strongly suspect he doesn't win Kentucky and Indiana by that much, if at all.

Hillary will win Puerto Rico in a huge blow out and probably pick up a net of 20-25 there. Bernie would then have to win CA by a mile to catch up.

The race is over. Deal with it and actually do the math.

it's a caucus state. And he will win a state or two next week. I also expect him to win landslides where he will make up lost ground.

the math argument is garbage because: I REFUSE TO VOTE FOR A PLUTOCRAT!

A statement like that statement will get you kicked of of DU soon.

i thought this was Democratic underground. not Plutocratic underground.

hillary is a plutocrat wearing a thin, shaky veneer that gives her the image of someone who actually gives a **** about Democracy

Sanders will have trouble winning one of them, just one. Right now he is favored in a single remaining state. And guess what, just to pull even with Hillary in pledged delegates he has to not only win all, he has to win all of them by margins comparable to 16% Hillary beat him in NY.

Possible, yes, but many things are possible which are so improbably that absolutely no one believes they will happen.

Notice that after which was evidently used to reassess his chances, Sanders had toned down his rhetoric on the campaign trail, a sure sign that he knows it's essentially finished.

Get ready for Bernie Sanders to endorse Hillary and ask you to support her and vote for her. I don't expect that to happen until right before the convention, but it will take you that long to get used to the concept.

In my exchange with the OP above, he thinks Sanders is going to get a shutout (i.e. 85%) in Oregon.

is because they are more aware than many Sanders supporters that game is rigged. They knew from the start that the machine would not allow Sanders to win. And we have seen this happen in most of major primaries. Exit polls are off in every place that uses counting machines. Caucuses are only honest way that seem to be because you have group of people watching other so you can not steal the election.

Clinton won the state in 2008 in a 66-30 blowout. This year, she won border states OH, TN and VA by double digits. She won nearby states AR and NC by double digits. The races in border states IL and MO were essentially ties. Kentucky, politically, is similar to its neighbors to the south, which are nothing but large Clinton victories. So what is it about Kentucky that has you thinking a big Bernie win is in store?

There's little doubt Bernie will rack up a big win in Oregon. A Bernie win of any magnitude in Indiana wouldn't surprise me at all. However, Bernie winning Kentucky, let alone by a massive margin, would be very surprising. What's your rationale here?

Hillary is Obama in this cycle in KY.

This year the DNC scheduled all the southern states early in order to prevent a progressive from gaining ground. The primary schedule was designed to protect Hillary's left flank.

For sanders to have any appreciable gain into Hilary's lead...especially after next week...