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Csainvestor

(388 posts)
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:06 PM Apr 2016

KY is VERY favorable to Bernie

Do the research and you will see why i am overly confidant he will win it BIG.

I think he will win KY OR and Indiana, he will pick up 100 delegates over Hillary in just these 3 states.

I also expect Bernie to win the puerto rico caucus. I also believe Bernie will win every single state (excluding CA) left in the west.

By the time CA rolls around Hillarys lead will be tiny.

48 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
KY is VERY favorable to Bernie (Original Post) Csainvestor Apr 2016 OP
Yes KY will overcome a 240 delegate lead MattP Apr 2016 #1
A little reading of the OP might help Art_from_Ark Apr 2016 #5
If one could take time to read one would Gwhittey Apr 2016 #29
RIF Lizzie Poppet Apr 2016 #7
You're dreaming. Wake up, roll over and MineralMan Apr 2016 #2
You don't appear to be familiar with the concept of proportional allocation. nt Cali_Democrat Apr 2016 #3
This post is all kinds of awesome...nt SidDithers Apr 2016 #4
Post removed Post removed Apr 2016 #6
Okay, that's really the last shitty, race-baiting load of assdrool I'm willing to tolerate from you. Lizzie Poppet Apr 2016 #10
The ironic thing is my ultra accurate predicting model (6 for 6!) has it going to Hillary Godhumor Apr 2016 #11
The only diverse parts of the state are Louisville and Lexington RandySF Apr 2016 #18
My point was that my model says Kentucky, of all places, is too diverse for him to win Godhumor Apr 2016 #19
Hilarious? You've always come across as a really reasonable person Kentonio Apr 2016 #46
Nah. Just let a troll who spammed the same thing over and over get to me Godhumor Apr 2016 #47
Clinton's lead is narrowing, just 43-38 with a 4.4% MOE Qutzupalotl Apr 2016 #8
Who cares what cultists think? Lizzie Poppet Apr 2016 #12
OK. Let's say they tie. MineralMan Apr 2016 #13
To reach his amusing 100 net delegate goal, Sanders has to win 75% of each state Gothmog Apr 2016 #16
She had a 44 point lead in June. Qutzupalotl Apr 2016 #17
You do know the other poll you cited isn't viable enough to be aggregated, right? Godhumor Apr 2016 #20
So you're sticking with a 10-month-old poll. Qutzupalotl Apr 2016 #21
No. I'm pointing out that you didn't cite a real poll Godhumor Apr 2016 #22
PPP is not real. OK. Qutzupalotl Apr 2016 #25
Reading comprehension. Godhumor Apr 2016 #26
Both polls I cited were from PPP: Qutzupalotl Apr 2016 #27
Who let the kids into DU? Isn't there an age requirement to be here? randome Apr 2016 #9
This Kentucky Woman is seeing Bernie bumper stickers everywhere. MelissaB Apr 2016 #14
I love Kentucky, was stationed at Fort Campbell Joob Apr 2016 #39
KY, Oregon and Indiana have a total of 199 delegates Gothmog Apr 2016 #15
Are all of you incapable of doing research Csainvestor Apr 2016 #23
This time around Bernie will win KY like Hillary won in 08 Csainvestor Apr 2016 #24
Does your research cover eelctionf fraud? Gwhittey Apr 2016 #31
It's a closed primary KingFlorez Apr 2016 #28
They don't like Obama in that state Csainvestor Apr 2016 #30
The people who don't like Obama voted in the GOP caucus KingFlorez Apr 2016 #32
Nope Csainvestor Apr 2016 #33
I hope you are right. Unicorn Apr 2016 #34
FYI DU'ers, the same user is basically just reposting the same nonsense repeatedly here today Tarc Apr 2016 #35
Kentuckian Checking in Here Bayard Apr 2016 #36
It doesn't count mcar Apr 2016 #37
Indiana is an open primary state and early voting has been going on for weeks. I B Calm Apr 2016 #38
What research did you do? Corporate666 Apr 2016 #40
Let's see the analysis.... Adrahil Apr 2016 #41
So does this mean that when Bernie loses KY and IN, we won't be hearing the usual YouDig Apr 2016 #42
Will he have an audience with Kim Davis? Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #43
I would hope Sanders has somebody will slightly more awareness of how the delegate process mythology Apr 2016 #44
I think that your math is way off. Beacool Apr 2016 #45
No way Bernie wins Kentucky. cwydro Apr 2016 #48

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
5. A little reading of the OP might help
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:12 PM
Apr 2016

The OP is saying that Kentucky, Indiana, and Oregon together may bring Bernie 100 delegates closer to Hillary. And Puerto Rico will also likely be in Bernie's camp.

 

Gwhittey

(1,377 posts)
29. If one could take time to read one would
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:54 PM
Apr 2016

not be fooled by HRC many bullshits. So consider what you are admonishing to read.

Response to Csainvestor (Original post)

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
10. Okay, that's really the last shitty, race-baiting load of assdrool I'm willing to tolerate from you.
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:18 PM
Apr 2016

You were one of the few Princess Weathervane acolytes left off my Ignore list, but your race-baiting propaganda has reached a new low.

Bye, Felicia...

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
11. The ironic thing is my ultra accurate predicting model (6 for 6!) has it going to Hillary
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:20 PM
Apr 2016

Because there are more black people in Kentucky than in states that he wins.

...

...

...


Think about the implications of that for a minute.

RandySF

(58,911 posts)
18. The only diverse parts of the state are Louisville and Lexington
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:27 PM
Apr 2016

And Lexington is a college town. She might do well around Frankford, though.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
19. My point was that my model says Kentucky, of all places, is too diverse for him to win
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:29 PM
Apr 2016

Kentucky!

That small number of POC is still too big for him to claim victory according to my demographic model.

Frankly, I think that is hilarious.

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
46. Hilarious? You've always come across as a really reasonable person
Sat Apr 23, 2016, 05:34 AM
Apr 2016

Who posted sensible intelligent posts that have been really interesting and informative. Please don't tell me you've now fallen into gutter posting too.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
47. Nah. Just let a troll who spammed the same thing over and over get to me
Sat Apr 23, 2016, 08:33 AM
Apr 2016

I'm back to my usual ways.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
13. OK. Let's say they tie.
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:20 PM
Apr 2016

Then they divide KY' s 55 delegates. No gain for either. Every state allocates delegates proportionally to the election or caucus results. You did know that, right?

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
20. You do know the other poll you cited isn't viable enough to be aggregated, right?
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:31 PM
Apr 2016

As the RCP link nicely shows.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
22. No. I'm pointing out that you didn't cite a real poll
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:38 PM
Apr 2016

There has been zero actual polling on Kentucky since June of last year.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
26. Reading comprehension.
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:45 PM
Apr 2016

Your first poll from wherever isn't a real poll. The last real poll was last June (Which would be PPP).

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
9. Who let the kids into DU? Isn't there an age requirement to be here?
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:17 PM
Apr 2016

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]

MelissaB

(16,420 posts)
14. This Kentucky Woman is seeing Bernie bumper stickers everywhere.
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:21 PM
Apr 2016

I LOVE it. I do think he will do well here.

Joob

(1,065 posts)
39. I love Kentucky, was stationed at Fort Campbell
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 05:51 AM
Apr 2016

would always go fishing in Kentucky! Ya'll are awesome down there

Gothmog

(145,321 posts)
15. KY, Oregon and Indiana have a total of 199 delegates
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:22 PM
Apr 2016

Sanders would have to win 75% in each state to reach your goal. That is not likely.

In addition, Clinton will be adding to her lead in Penn, Maryland and the other states voting next week

Csainvestor

(388 posts)
23. Are all of you incapable of doing research
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:41 PM
Apr 2016

Check demographics of how Hillary won in 2008 in Kentucky and you will have your answer.

What's the gun ownership rate in Kentucky as an example.

 

Gwhittey

(1,377 posts)
31. Does your research cover eelctionf fraud?
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:57 PM
Apr 2016

Or is KY no important enough for them to make "voter mistakes" like in NY,IL,MA etc?

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
28. It's a closed primary
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:53 PM
Apr 2016

Louisville will dominate the primary, which will be beneficial to Clinton. If anything I expect it to go narrowly to Clinton.

Csainvestor

(388 posts)
30. They don't like Obama in that state
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:55 PM
Apr 2016

Hillary is running as if this is Obama's third term, that's why I expect Bernie to win almost all of the West that's left.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
32. The people who don't like Obama voted in the GOP caucus
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:58 PM
Apr 2016

At least for the most part. What will be left is Democrats in Louisville who voted heavily for Obama.

 

Unicorn

(424 posts)
34. I hope you are right.
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:05 PM
Apr 2016

I want it for us and Bernie. And, that's the thing about that guy. Not only does he excite the youth vote and the progressives, we actually care about him personally. I want him to get great numbers and be happy.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
35. FYI DU'ers, the same user is basically just reposting the same nonsense repeatedly here today
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:07 PM
Apr 2016
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1803853

These people just don't understand basic math, and how insurmountable her delegate lead is. The OP actually thinks Sanders is going to start carrying states by 75-85%...

Bayard

(22,099 posts)
36. Kentuckian Checking in Here
Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:25 PM
Apr 2016

I'm in the boonies of Western KY, and sorry to say, don't think they'll be much voting going on around here at all.

BUT, Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green are all college towns, and have the majority of voters. I could see us going Bernie.

 

B Calm

(28,762 posts)
38. Indiana is an open primary state and early voting has been going on for weeks. I
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 05:46 AM
Apr 2016

voted for Bernie two weeks ago.

Corporate666

(587 posts)
40. What research did you do?
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 07:21 AM
Apr 2016

~200 delegates for the 3 states. For him to gain 100 over HRC, he will get 150 to her 50? So... win all three 75% to 25%? More than the margin he won NH by, more than he won any other state except his home state by (and he only won his home state by a little more than those numbers)?

I have an alternate, but more pleasible theory for how Sanders can pick up 100 delegates.

Hillary will summon Godzilla who will raze the city. Bernie will transform into Mothra and beat Godzilla back to the ocean. The voters will be so enamored by Bernie that they will vote for him as their lord and savior.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
41. Let's see the analysis....
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 07:26 AM
Apr 2016

According to 538, Kentucky only slightly favors Sanders, and what's more, it's a closed primary. I think that indicates a reasonable chance of a Clinton voctory.

I think Sander will win in Indiana. probably
by about 15 points, but that's just a gut feeling.... i live here.

oregeon will go for Bernie too, obviously.

But to net 100 delegates, he would have to win by margins of 75-25. That's fantasy in primary states, two of which are closed.

YouDig

(2,280 posts)
42. So does this mean that when Bernie loses KY and IN, we won't be hearing the usual
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 07:30 AM
Apr 2016

excuses about how those states don't matter?

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
44. I would hope Sanders has somebody will slightly more awareness of how the delegate process
Sat Apr 23, 2016, 12:33 AM
Apr 2016

works than you at the helm. This is amusing how utterly improbable this is. You are suggesting that Sanders will win each of these states at almost the rate he won Vermont.

Of course you somehow neglect to mention that Sanders will be substantially further behind after next Tuesday's contests where he is expected to lose at least the 3 largest states and at best pull to an effective draw in the other 2.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
45. I think that your math is way off.
Sat Apr 23, 2016, 12:38 AM
Apr 2016

As for Puerto Rico voting for Sanders, por favor, no me hagas reir.

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