2016 Postmortem

Zynx

(21,328 posts) Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:20 PM Apr 2016

If you say Sanders is in a better position than Obama was, you're deluded or a liar.

There's no other option. You either don't know what the facts are or you are intentionally trying to deceive people. In the first case, I feel sorry for you. In the second, I detest you.

This was the pledged delegate race in 2008:

Oh, sorry, Clinton was never in the lead. In fact, she was in the hole for all of it.

Sanders is in a much much much weaker position. There's no question about it.

19 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

If you say Sanders is in a better position than Obama was, you're deluded or a liar. (Original Post) Zynx Apr 2016 OP

Yup. This race is a blowout by comparison. CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #1

Has *ANYONE* said that? Or is this an obvious strawman? JonLeibowitz Apr 2016 #2

Quite. Codeine Apr 2016 #5

So. One person. Not a serious poster, not anyone I even recognize as a Bernie supporter. O-kay. JonLeibowitz Apr 2016 #9

Yep. I've run into at least a half dozen here or on Facebook who think this. Zynx Apr 2016 #6

A certain poster was spreading that nonsense Codeine Apr 2016 #3

Apples/Oranges. Sanders has Obama, the Pope, Biden, Carter, and Warren in his camp. CentralCoaster Apr 2016 #4

Sanders has Obama in his camp? Zynx Apr 2016 #8

Those do appear to be the only two choices available... NurseJackie Apr 2016 #7

Quite a few State Primaries have shifted to a later date jimmy_crack_corn Apr 2016 #10

Do you know how much worse his position is in the southern states? Zynx Apr 2016 #11

This year the south voted first. The south voted much later in 2008 jg10003 Apr 2016 #12

We're over 35 primaries in. Zynx Apr 2016 #13

The point is that the schedule was unfavorable to any candidate to the left of Clinton. jg10003 Apr 2016 #14

Hillary won CA in 2008, unless you forgot. Zynx Apr 2016 #16

Obama, not Clinton, carried the south in 2008 (nt) Recursion Apr 2016 #17

She was ahead for one day Recursion Apr 2016 #15

I don't count the first three contests. They're small and not really important to the delegate race. Zynx Apr 2016 #18

Notably, the spread was much smaller then. joshcryer Apr 2016 #19

CrowCityDem

(2,348 posts)

1. Yup. This race is a blowout by comparison.

Reply to Zynx (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:30 PM

Apr 2016

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)

2. Has *ANYONE* said that? Or is this an obvious strawman?

Reply to Zynx (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:31 PM

Apr 2016

I have seen people say that Bernie did better in NY than Obama did vs Clinton. One can observe that fact and still not be claiming what you are disproving.

Codeine

(25,586 posts)

5. Quite.

Reply to JonLeibowitz (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:34 PM

Apr 2016

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1798553

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1798730

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1798581

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)

9. So. One person. Not a serious poster, not anyone I even recognize as a Bernie supporter. O-kay.

Reply to Codeine (Reply #5)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:38 PM

Apr 2016

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

6. Yep. I've run into at least a half dozen here or on Facebook who think this.

Reply to JonLeibowitz (Reply #2)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:34 PM

Apr 2016

They also will cite Michigan to make the same argument.

Codeine

(25,586 posts)

3. A certain poster was spreading that nonsense

Reply to Zynx (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:32 PM

Apr 2016

all over the board yesterday, and still hasn't bothered to respond to the refutations. That leads me to believe it was a deliberate untruth.

CentralCoaster

(1,163 posts)

4. Apples/Oranges. Sanders has Obama, the Pope, Biden, Carter, and Warren in his camp.

Reply to Zynx (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:33 PM

Apr 2016

While Hillary has the FBI and the DOJ in her rear view mirror.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

8. Sanders has Obama in his camp?

Reply to CentralCoaster (Reply #4)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:36 PM

Apr 2016

Also, Bernie has far fewer voters in his camp.

I won't even bother with the FBI investigation issue. We don't have a clue what's happening there.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

7. Those do appear to be the only two choices available...

Reply to Zynx (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 08:36 PM

Apr 2016

... the only ones that make sense, anyway.

jimmy_crack_corn

(79 posts)

10. Quite a few State Primaries have shifted to a later date

Reply to Zynx (Original post)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:17 PM

Apr 2016

Actually a lot of the states that are left already had their primary by April 20th 2008 !

In 2008

5-Feb Connecticut
5-Feb Delaware
12-Feb Maryland
22-Apr Pennsylvania
4-Mar Rhode Island
6-May Indiana
3-May Guam
13-May West Virginia
20-May Kentucky
20-May Oregon
9-Feb Virgin Islands
1-Jun Puerto Rico
5-Feb California
3-Jun Montana
5-Feb New Jersey
5-Feb New Mexico
5-Feb North Dakota
3-Jun South Dakota
12-Feb District of Columbia

IN 2016

26-Apr Connecticut
26-Apr Delaware
26-Apr Maryland
26-Apr Pennsylvania
26-Apr Rhode Island
3-May Indiana
7-May Guam
10-May West Virginia
17-May Kentucky
17-May Oregon
4-Jun Virgin Islands
5-Jun Puerto Rico
7-Jun California
7-Jun Montana
7-Jun New Jersey
7-Jun New Mexico
7-Jun North Dakota
7-Jun South Dakota
14-Jun District of Columbia

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

11. Do you know how much worse his position is in the southern states?

Reply to jimmy_crack_corn (Reply #10)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:30 PM

Apr 2016

Obama won the South. Bernie has gotten destroyed there.

Obama won Illinois by 32 points, netting a lot of delegates. Hillary won narrowly.

Obama won Maryland by a big margin. Hillary will win by 20+.

It goes on.

jg10003

(976 posts)

12. This year the south voted first. The south voted much later in 2008

Reply to Zynx (Reply #11)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:39 PM

Apr 2016

In 2008 only 5 southern states were among the first 25 primaries:
1. Alabama
2. Arkansas
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. South Carolina

In 2016 11 southern states were among the first 25 primaries:
1. Alabama
2. Arkansas
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. Louisiana
6. Mississippi
7. Oklahoma
8. South Carolina
9. Tennessee
10. Texas
11. Virginia

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

13. We're over 35 primaries in.

Reply to jg10003 (Reply #12)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 09:41 PM

Apr 2016

We're far closer to the end than the beginning.

jg10003

(976 posts)

14. The point is that the schedule was unfavorable to any candidate to the left of Clinton.

Reply to Zynx (Reply #13)

Thu Apr 21, 2016, 10:00 PM

Apr 2016

By having all the southern primaries first the DNC was giving Clinton a big head start. In 2008 all of the following states had voted by the end of February.
Michigan
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Washington
Wisconsin

In 2008 California had its' primary on February 5. This year the California primary is in June. Schedules are created for a reason. This schedule was designed to give Clinton every possible advantage over any potential rival.