2016 Postmortem

NRaleighLiberal

(60,018 posts) Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:08 PM Oct 2012

Worth reading - today's update on Early voting

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-mesmerizing_b_2027200.html

Early Voting Mesmerizing

Michael P McDonald

"With more than 10 million people already casting a ballot, early voting is on pace likely to exceed the 41 million cast in 2008. Next week will be crunch time as millions of people across the country cast ballots.

Everyone wants to know who is winning. In my commentary below I explain why I conclude Obama has narrow leads in Iowa and Nevada, Romney has a narrow lead in North Carolina, and in the remainder the early vote is not providing a clear direction yet. There is still ample time for conditions to change, but it will be increasingly difficult to do so as more votes pour in.

There are instructive patterns other than the horse race. The patterns of early voting in Florida and Ohio suggest that Obama supporters are successfully overcoming limitations in early voting enacted by those states' Republican governments.

To date, early voters have been primarily high propensity voters; strong partisans who know who they will vote for. In the coming week, the early voting volume will pick up substantially, and we will see more of the lower to moderate propensity voters who are more persuadable enter the early electorate. In some of these close states, there is still time for the candidates to gain advantage though early voting as we reach the critical home stretch."

snip

long, but quite interesting

11 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Worth reading - today's update on Early voting (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 OP

I just read another website that said NC looks better for Obama and FL looks better for Romney Renew Deal Oct 2012 #1

I think you are absolutely right! NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #2

Florida starts early voting this weekend bigdarryl Oct 2012 #3

NC looks good. Florida early voting starts tomorrow. grantcart Oct 2012 #8

I have absolutely no clue how someone can conclude Romney has a narrow lead in early voting in LisaL Oct 2012 #4

But are all NC Dems voting for Obama Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #5

I don't know that until the votes are counted. LisaL Oct 2012 #6

Because if the Dems get their votes in early, that gives more opportunity BlueStreak Oct 2012 #7

Dems voted early in 2008, and nobody stole their ballots. LisaL Oct 2012 #9

How would we know? BlueStreak Oct 2012 #11

Everyone who can vote early, should, including absentee VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #10

Renew Deal

(81,869 posts)

1. I just read another website that said NC looks better for Obama and FL looks better for Romney

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:22 PM

Oct 2012

I don't think anyone really knows what's going on.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,018 posts)

2. I think you are absolutely right!

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:24 PM

Oct 2012

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)

3. Florida starts early voting this weekend

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:30 PM

Oct 2012

With Al Sharpton down there with the Florida African American ministers getting people to the poll especially on Sunday's souls to the polls I'm not sure Romney is a sure bet to win that state

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

8. NC looks good. Florida early voting starts tomorrow.

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:06 AM

Oct 2012

LisaL

(44,974 posts)

4. I have absolutely no clue how someone can conclude Romney has a narrow lead in early voting in

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:33 PM

Oct 2012

NC.
All the numbers I've seen indicate more democrats had early voted than republicans in NC.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)

5. But are all NC Dems voting for Obama

Reply to LisaL (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:36 PM

Oct 2012

That's one question. Remember Obama won by only 14k in 2008. That said the numbers overall look encouraging provided Romney has registered fewer new voters than Dems.

LisaL

(44,974 posts)

6. I don't know that until the votes are counted.

Reply to Maximumnegro (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:42 PM

Oct 2012

But whoever came up with the idea that Romney has a narrow advantage doesn't know that either.
The recent poll showed Obama leading in early voting in NC. He has an edge right now. The question is, can it hold?

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

7. Because if the Dems get their votes in early, that gives more opportunity

Reply to LisaL (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 12:05 AM

Oct 2012

to "lose" the ballots, maybe?

Assumed in all this early voting discussion is the proposition that there will be unquestionable chain of custody and elimination of any tampering for the weeks that early ballots are sitting in election offices.

LisaL

(44,974 posts)

9. Dems voted early in 2008, and nobody stole their ballots.

Reply to BlueStreak (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:17 AM

Oct 2012

Democratic party encourages early voting. Obama himself voted early.

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)

11. How would we know?

Reply to LisaL (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 08:31 AM

Oct 2012

I'm not trying to be alarmist. I'm simply saying that when we close off one avenue of election tampering, the Republicans will take another avenue.

When saw substantial corruption of this nature in the Wisconsin recall election. I'm not sure that related to early voting, but it was dubious chain of custody in general, and magically appearing ballots.

One way to minimize that would be to require election boards to actually count the ballots at the end of each day so that the total numbers are on record.

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)

10. Everyone who can vote early, should, including absentee

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:29 AM

Oct 2012

Reply to this discussion