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Renew Deal

(81,869 posts)
1. The Washington Post poll was Romney +1 today.
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 11:53 PM
Oct 2012

Gallup was something like +5.

Rand was Obama +6

Not sure how much of this stuff is relevant.

fugop

(1,828 posts)
4. +1 in Post was actually down from yesterday, right?
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 11:59 PM
Oct 2012

Yesterday was Romney 50-47, I think. Today it was 49-48. So Obama up 1, Romney down 1. I'll take that.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
7. Did Nate say whether Obama will win the popular vote?
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 12:04 AM
Oct 2012

Or how he is doing with white voters?

Those seem to be the main concerns tonight that I see in other quarters.

abumbyanyothername

(2,711 posts)
12. He said that there would be a 7% chance of a PV EV split
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 12:44 AM
Oct 2012

He called the electorate more racially polarized than ever. He thought that Obama was down among white voters significantly, although I cannot remember the exact number. And that the real key to the election was "minority" (no longer minorities here in CA) turnout.

Used the analogy of a basketball team being up 3 points with a minute to go. They could still lose, but you would rather be up 3 than down 3 at this point.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
19. "He thought that Obama was down among white voters significantly"
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 08:23 AM
Oct 2012

That sucks.

Hopefully it will be balanced out by other factors.

Atman

(31,464 posts)
2. Good show.
Fri Oct 26, 2012, 11:54 PM
Oct 2012

I actually even enjoyed Michael Steele. Much more human than the character he plays on Morning Joe.

I liked the way Nate described the way his polling analysis works. It doesn't matter if the Yankees were doing well last Spring...you have to look at recent performance, and Romney just isn't doing it, no matter how much the GOPpers hype "momentum." A betting man looks at trends and history, that's why he's betting on Obama.

WeekendWarrior

(1,437 posts)
8. In my opinion, Steele plays the room he's in
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 12:15 AM
Oct 2012

exactly the same way Romney does. His demeanor is less abrasive, but the result is the same. His message is tailored to fit whatever audience he's in front of in order to make himself look good.

Politicub

(12,165 posts)
15. Steele is interesting right now- he's been moderating his positions for the past couple of months
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:08 AM
Oct 2012

I believe he's so opportunistic that he must have some benefit in mind for himself.

I still don't trust the man as far as I can throw him.

Several Obama republicans have come out of the woodwork this week - Colin Powell most notably. Maybe it's a new trend?

Politicub

(12,165 posts)
14. Swoon - nate silver is my hero... He's the best at making sense of the gaggle of polls
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:03 AM
Oct 2012

Even when I don't like him lowering the percentages for Obama, I know he's being as fair and empirical about it as possible.

But I do get a mood boost when things start trending up.

Cosmocat

(14,568 posts)
16. The numbers are the numbers
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 08:07 AM
Oct 2012

he was really cool last night ...

Agree, I learned from 2010, I did not want to believe the Rs were going to destroy the House, but they did.

Even when Romney was making his push, I accepted the numbers Silver put out ...

sammytko

(2,480 posts)
20. Just watched it on the DVR. Great show. Good guests
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 08:35 PM
Oct 2012

Not like last week.

I love Elliott Spitzer. I could listen to his voice all day and night.

Barney frank was great too.

And Nate was the cherry on top!

Geez, I'm terrible. Forgot the females name she wrote " the plutocrats". Good also.

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