2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDd anyone see Nate Silver on Bill Maher's show tonight?
He said Romney's momentum stopped about a week ago, and that Gallup is like the 5th dentist when you hear that saying, "4 out of 5 dentists recommend..."
From Silver's site:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)Gallup was something like +5.
Rand was Obama +6
Not sure how much of this stuff is relevant.
fugop
(1,828 posts)Yesterday was Romney 50-47, I think. Today it was 49-48. So Obama up 1, Romney down 1. I'll take that.
Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)I'm mixing up the terminology
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Or how he is doing with white voters?
Those seem to be the main concerns tonight that I see in other quarters.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)He predicts Obama will win the popular vote as well.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)He called the electorate more racially polarized than ever. He thought that Obama was down among white voters significantly, although I cannot remember the exact number. And that the real key to the election was "minority" (no longer minorities here in CA) turnout.
Used the analogy of a basketball team being up 3 points with a minute to go. They could still lose, but you would rather be up 3 than down 3 at this point.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)That sucks.
Hopefully it will be balanced out by other factors.
Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)he really downplayed the possibility of an EV/PV split ...
Atman
(31,464 posts)I actually even enjoyed Michael Steele. Much more human than the character he plays on Morning Joe.
I liked the way Nate described the way his polling analysis works. It doesn't matter if the Yankees were doing well last Spring...you have to look at recent performance, and Romney just isn't doing it, no matter how much the GOPpers hype "momentum." A betting man looks at trends and history, that's why he's betting on Obama.
I liked that explanation, too.
WeekendWarrior
(1,437 posts)exactly the same way Romney does. His demeanor is less abrasive, but the result is the same. His message is tailored to fit whatever audience he's in front of in order to make himself look good.
fugop
(1,828 posts)Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)he knows his niche, and he is willing to play to it ...
Politicub
(12,165 posts)I believe he's so opportunistic that he must have some benefit in mind for himself.
I still don't trust the man as far as I can throw him.
Several Obama republicans have come out of the woodwork this week - Colin Powell most notably. Maybe it's a new trend?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Has he dealt with those?
jenmito
(37,326 posts)LukeFL
(594 posts)Politicub
(12,165 posts)Even when I don't like him lowering the percentages for Obama, I know he's being as fair and empirical about it as possible.
But I do get a mood boost when things start trending up.
Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)he was really cool last night ...
Agree, I learned from 2010, I did not want to believe the Rs were going to destroy the House, but they did.
Even when Romney was making his push, I accepted the numbers Silver put out ...
sammytko
(2,480 posts)Not like last week.
I love Elliott Spitzer. I could listen to his voice all day and night.
Barney frank was great too.
And Nate was the cherry on top!
Geez, I'm terrible. Forgot the females name she wrote " the plutocrats". Good also.