2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo what the hell has happened to exit polling this year? Time was they were so good, the TV networks
would keep them under wraps, even hours after the polls closed, because they always were within 1-2% of the actual results. They actually knew who won as soon as the polls closed (and often hours before), but didn't want to spoil the fun for the viewers.
Suddenly this year, they're off by 6, 8, now 12 points??? Very strange indeed...
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Buddyblazon
(3,014 posts)I have an excuse for this. Just gimme a minute...
Joob
(1,065 posts)But in all seriousness. Yeah, this is clear-cut corruption. Dunno who could be doing it. But it's silly to think it's because voters are dumb, or there was a screw up. Too many people disfranchised..
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)that between 17-20% of the voters in that closed Democratic primary identified themselves as independents -- not Dems.
We also know that the lawyers who filed the lawsuit trying to get the primary opened were urging independent Bernie supporters to vote with a provisional ballot in case the law suit succeeded.
So, if they were following the advice that was all over reddit and elsewhere, independents were requesting provisional ballots and crossing their fingers that they'd be counted.
But they weren't, because provisional ballots are put aside to be checked against registration rolls -- not counted on election day. If the vote ends up being close, they can be counted IF the registration rolls show that they are Democrats.
So the pollsters were inadvertently including in their exit polls people whose votes weren't going to be counted.
New York's results WERE confirmed by the 538 aggregate of pre-election polls, which had predicted Hillary to be 15 points ahead. She actually won by 16 points -- an excellent result.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)pnwmom
(108,980 posts)were independents and voted on provisional ballots.
But I don't know what the number was.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)"So, what the hell has happened to exit polling this year?" is a question that needs to be examined VERY closely. I've looked around to see if any experts are discussing the question. So far have not.
An excerpt from Michael Parenti's "The Stolen Presidential Elections"
http://www.michaelparenti.org/stolenelections.html