Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 07:45 PM Apr 2016

So what the hell has happened to exit polling this year? Time was they were so good, the TV networks


would keep them under wraps, even hours after the polls closed, because they always were within 1-2% of the actual results. They actually knew who won as soon as the polls closed (and often hours before), but didn't want to spoil the fun for the viewers.

Suddenly this year, they're off by 6, 8, now 12 points??? Very strange indeed...
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
So what the hell has happened to exit polling this year? Time was they were so good, the TV networks (Original Post) reformist2 Apr 2016 OP
Because the system is hacked and rigged big time. bkkyosemite Apr 2016 #1
Wait... Buddyblazon Apr 2016 #2
Uh uh, Republicans!! No wait.. Maybe I should try the Oblivious angle Joob Apr 2016 #3
The reason seems pretty clear in NY. The exit polls in NY reported pnwmom Apr 2016 #4
Are you suggesting that over 200,000 provisional ballots were handed out? reformist2 Apr 2016 #5
I'm suggesting some large fraction of those people who identified themselves as independents pnwmom Apr 2016 #6
Exit polls are an exceptionally accurate measure of elections... pat_k Apr 2016 #7

Joob

(1,065 posts)
3. Uh uh, Republicans!! No wait.. Maybe I should try the Oblivious angle
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 07:56 PM
Apr 2016

But in all seriousness. Yeah, this is clear-cut corruption. Dunno who could be doing it. But it's silly to think it's because voters are dumb, or there was a screw up. Too many people disfranchised..

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
4. The reason seems pretty clear in NY. The exit polls in NY reported
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 07:56 PM
Apr 2016

that between 17-20% of the voters in that closed Democratic primary identified themselves as independents -- not Dems.

We also know that the lawyers who filed the lawsuit trying to get the primary opened were urging independent Bernie supporters to vote with a provisional ballot in case the law suit succeeded.

So, if they were following the advice that was all over reddit and elsewhere, independents were requesting provisional ballots and crossing their fingers that they'd be counted.

But they weren't, because provisional ballots are put aside to be checked against registration rolls -- not counted on election day. If the vote ends up being close, they can be counted IF the registration rolls show that they are Democrats.

So the pollsters were inadvertently including in their exit polls people whose votes weren't going to be counted.

New York's results WERE confirmed by the 538 aggregate of pre-election polls, which had predicted Hillary to be 15 points ahead. She actually won by 16 points -- an excellent result.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
6. I'm suggesting some large fraction of those people who identified themselves as independents
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 08:05 PM
Apr 2016

were independents and voted on provisional ballots.

But I don't know what the number was.

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
7. Exit polls are an exceptionally accurate measure of elections...
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 09:50 PM
Apr 2016

"So, what the hell has happened to exit polling this year?" is a question that needs to be examined VERY closely. I've looked around to see if any experts are discussing the question. So far have not.

An excerpt from Michael Parenti's "The Stolen Presidential Elections"

Exit polls are an exceptionally accurate measure of elections. In the last three elections in Germany, for example, exit polls were never off by more than three-tenths of one percent. Unlike ordinary opinion polls, the exit sample is drawn from people who have actually just voted. It rules out those who say they will vote but never make it to the polls, those who cannot be sampled because they have no telephone or otherwise cannot be reached at home, those who are undecided or who change their minds about whom to support, and those who are turned away at the polls for one reason or another. Exit polls have come to be considered so reliable that international organizations use them to validate election results in countries around the world.


http://www.michaelparenti.org/stolenelections.html
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»So what the hell has happ...