Will go Obama's direction sharply right before the election so Scotty can save face.


Gallup? I think they'll ride their bad numbers to the end just like they've done before.

Rand or Reuters. TPM shows them, but does not count them in the average. RCP doesn't even show them. RCP was counting Reuters early on but stopped. RCP does not even count PPP.

RCP does not use Internet polls. My guess is because they favor Obama.

agreement if they understood the demographic composition of the electorate. Rasmussen will alter his special sauce and save face. Gallup will pick up a late surge towards Obama by shifting the electorate more Dem. Prediction, one week from today, Gallup will show a statistical tie or small Obama lead.

They go all in. Ras will switch but Gallup will maintain a slim Romney lead up until the end.

show 50-49ish one way or the other, they will hedge their bets and hide behind the narrative of the horserace.

I think neither change and the other trackers simply show a close race with ties or Obama or Romney ahead by a point or two. If Obama wins, Gallup has some serious introspection to do. Rasmussen won't change. It is there to influence the electorate.

internet polls will ahve been the most accurate this cycle, as low response bias relative to demographics is most neutralized by this medium.

with the Generic ballot and House races. Totally internet based.