2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's 5 Reasons Why Bernie Is Taking The Battle All The Way To The Convention.
April 25, 2016
Bernie Sanders Wont Drop Out, Heres Why
by Thomas Knapp
Bernie Sanders says hes taking the Democratic presidential nomination contest all the way to the partys national convention in Philadelphia at the end of July. Believe it.
Path #1: Clintons health fails in a very big and very public way. Shes had multiple public fainting spells since 2005, including one resulting in a broken elbow in 2009. In 2012, she suffered a concussion and was hospitalized with cerebral venous thrombosis, a life-threatening blood clot condition. Her campaign health statement acknowledges these problems and throws in hypothyroidism to boot, although characterizing the 67-year-old as enjoying excellent health.
Path #2: Clinton is indicted in, or otherwise dragged down over, the Servergate affair, in which she appears to have illegally mishandled classified information while Secretary of State.
Path #3: Clinton comes to big legal or political grief over apparent connections between large donations to her familys foundation on one hand and her actions as Secretary of State on the other. For example, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia donated $10 million to the Clinton Foundation and Boeing donated $900,000. Later, Secretary Clinton cleared a $29 billion arms deal involving the two parties. You can see how that kind of thing looks. There may be some there there.
Path #4: The texts of Clintons Wall Street speeches, for which she received millions of dollars in honoraria, are leaked. Clintons refusal to release those texts tells us that their release would be politically damaging. Everything comes to light sooner or later. If its sooner that is, before July we may find out how just how damaging.
Any of these four scenarios might result in Hillary Clintons ignominious withdrawal from the presidential race and release of her delegates, followed by the partys scramble for an alternative nominee. If Bernie Sanders doesnt quit, he becomes the odds-on favorite for the job.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/25/bernie-sanders-wont-drop-out-heres-why/
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There is a 5th path to Bernie's nomination which I think is the most likely. Hillary will not win enough elected (pledged) delegates to capture the nomination which will enable the unpledged super delegates to vote for the candidate who they believe will have the best chance of defeating the Republican nominee. That would be Bernie. imagine2015
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)FarPoint
(12,415 posts)Lol...good one....I needed to smile.
highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)Wish it was a firmly Progressive one, and much happier if it turns out to be. If not, gonna raise a ruckus.
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)It's an honest concern. I remember how the Hillary campaign wanted to question Bernie's age or health and the Sander's campaign threat to release Hillary's medical records was enough to shut them up.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)dinkytron
(568 posts)rock
(13,218 posts)For putting some reality in this discussion.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Not sure why people would need five points. That one point covers it all.
MADem
(135,425 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)Sure his delegates will be 'represented' there.
But there will be no convention fight, and he will concede before the convention.
Faux pas
(14,686 posts)pa28
(6,145 posts)The Clinton campaign and the Democratic establishment want Bernie to drop out right now to create the appearance of a decisive victory. If Hillary lacks enough earned delegates to win outright they won't be able to make that claim with any credibility.
An uncontested win at the convention will allow the media and the party to sweep Bernie, his policy goals and his supporters under the rug by saying the primary was a mandate on the future of the party and they walked away with a clear win.
That's what they want and if there is any hope of changing the direction of party in a meaningful way this year it can't be given to them. Reason number 6 Bernie must stay in.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)SharonClark
(10,014 posts)As Counterpunch usually is.
brooklynite
(94,634 posts)Just as unlikely, but a much more colorful story.
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)"Lizard Person".
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)and the GE has yet to begin.
...
Clinton's image has undergone ups and downs over the course of the campaign season, just as it has over her entire 25-year career in the national spotlight. Overall, however, April so far has not been kind to the former secretary of state. Her net favorable rating has descended steadily to her current low point -- in the midst of a crucial stage of the primary season, which will help determine whether she'll emerge the clear winner over Bernie Sanders before the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this July.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/190787/clinton-image-among-democrats-new-low.aspx