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pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:31 PM Apr 2016

Two types of voters can account for the early exit poll discrepancy in NY.

First, absentee voters were not included in the exit polls. Absentee voters are usually older voters and older voters strongly preferred Hillary.

Second, the voters who voted on provisional ballots. Provisional votes would only be counted if the voter turned out to be a registered Democrat. Independents were being encouraged to vote with provisional ballots, in case an emergency lawsuit resulted in an opened primary; and up to 20% of those exit polled said they were Independents. Since the injunction wasn't granted, the votes of non-Democrats would not be counted.

So the absentee votes, which favored Hillary, were not included in the exit polls; but the votes of Independents, which favored Bernie, were.

The 126,000 purged voters were not concentrated in neighborhoods known to have high support for Bernie, but spread throughout the borough, so they're less likely to be a factor.

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
1. A poll is just a poll and has a margin of error.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:34 PM
Apr 2016

The margin of error in an electronic voting machine is 0.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
7. Yes, a certain group here is convinced that every election is rigged, every machine hacked.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:42 PM
Apr 2016

Paranoia. It will eat you up.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
5. They use verifiable paper ballots in NY and they do have a very small but non-zero margin of error.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:41 PM
Apr 2016

For example, when the ballots are run through the machine two ballots could stick together and one might not register.

I'm sure electronic machines have a margin of error, as well. The advantage of paper is that it can always be recounted by hand, if necessary.

LiberalFighter

(50,994 posts)
3. New York needs to provide a breakdown on election stats.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:38 PM
Apr 2016

How many early voted by mail or in person. How many vote on election day. Also how many voted provisionally and those that were denied. And the reasons.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
6. Most of the problems that occurred there were in a county with very large numbers of Hispanics,
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:42 PM
Apr 2016

a group that strongly favored Hillary throughout the state -- so if the problems hurt anyone, it was probably Hillary.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
10. The county where they slashed the number of polling places was Maricopa county.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 05:10 PM
Apr 2016
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/25/3763198/arizona-voting-debacle/

In a primary election marked by confusion, inaccessibility, and blatant voter suppression, Tuesday night’s fiasco in Maricopa County, Arizona marked a new low.

Thanks to a decision by county election officials to slash the number of polling places from 200 to 60, some voters waited up to five hours to cast a ballot. Some polling places ran out of ballots. Reports surfaced of voters giving up and leaving without voting, and even fainting after waiting for hours in the Arizona heat. Thousands of provisional ballots still haven’t been counted.

The Arizona Republic found that most counties in the state provided, on average, a polling place for every 2,500 eligible voters per polling site. In Maricopa County, which has a large Latino and Native American population, it was one site per every 21,000 voters.

After first laying blame on the county’s voters for showing up in droves on election day, Maricopa County election administrator Helen Purcell took responsibility, arguing that her department had incorrectly assumed almost all residents would vote by mail and was trying to be “cost-effective.”

SNIP
 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
14. Thanks, and oops!
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 05:37 PM
Apr 2016

I misread and thought you had data on where the NY voters suffered purges. Would like to see that.

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