With weeks to go until the Democratic Party Convention in June and some 1,600 delegates yet to be awarded, it’s a tantalizing prospect for supporters of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to focus on two numbers: Hillary Clinton’s lead in pledged delegates (275) and the number of delegates still in play, in states that have not yet held nominating contests. Just two-thirds of the delegates have been awarded at this point.

The problem with Sanders’ increasingly gnarled path to victory isn’t just simple math — he needs to win an average of the remaining states by margins of 20 percent or more to overtake Clinton’s lead — it’s that the former Secretary of State’s 2016 candidacy is an entirely different one from the race she lost eight years ago. Clinton is winning this time because in terms of voter support, she’s the new Barack Obama.

Like Obama, it was Clinton who won Iowa this time around. Like Obama, it was Clinton who won South Carolina. Like 2008 Obama, 2016 Clinton has prevailed in North Carolina, Virginia, Louisiana, Missouri, Illinois and Georgia....The overwhelming reason? Like Obama, it’s Clinton who is now winning more of the African-American vote. She’s always enjoyed strong support among African-Americans, but in 2008, the black vote went to the man who would become the nation’s first black president.

Now, it’s different. In both 2008 and 2016, “There’s a relatively stable coalition for each candidate, resulting in fairly predictable vote shares in every state,” Daniel Donner, a contributor at Daily Kos Elections who has studied both the 2008 and 2016 primaries, tells Newsweek . Sanders is supported by a fairly diverse base, largely because the Democratic party is diverse. Clinton’s base is simply more diverse. In New York, for example, nearly one-third of Sanders voters were minorities; Clinton’s were 49 percent minority. Sanders does better with the young, Clinton with the old; Clinton does better with holders of postgraduate degrees and worse with northern rural voters. But by far the most important difference between why she lost in 2008 and why she’s winning in 2016 is minority support.


....All of which explains why Sanders adviser Tad Devine suggested in an NPR interview that the campaign may need to “re-evaluate” after Tuesday’s contests, where five more states hold primaries.