California, Here I Come...
(cross-posted from my DKos account)
As the Primary race progresses, and the outcome look (to most analysts) increasingly bleak for Senator Sanders, his supporters keep point to California as a reason to stay in. With 475 delegates up for grabs it’s certainly the way to sweep to victory at the last minute, right?
Well, yes if your approach is “absolutely anything can happen” (even if it frequently doesn’t). Let’s take a look at the current standing, the California opportunity and what they say about Bernie’s path to victory.
First, the basic parameters. There are 4051 elected (no super) delegates. 2383 are required for nomination, but let’s accept for discussion that the goal is to win a majority of elected delegates and then compete for the supers.
Currently, Hillary Clinton has 1443 to Sanders 1208, with 1400 remaining to be awarded in 15 States, DC, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Island and Guam. California remains the largest prize, with 475 delegates up for grabs. All contests award delegates proportionally, some with a 15% minimum threshold.
Sanders folks and some early polling suggest that California will be a close race. But that’s the problem; close isn’t enough. WINNING isn’t enough. Even if he got 100% of California’s delegates, he’d still need 343 more out of the remaining States, and getting those remains a huge burden. Let’s look at some realistic and UNREALISTIC scenarios.
1. If Sanders tied Clinton in California, he’d to win 63% of EVERY OTHER STATE to get a majority of elected delegates.
2. If Sanders won California with 60% of the vote, (something only Jimmy Carter came close to doing in a competitive Primary) he’d need 57% of EVERY OTHER STATE. That’s a threshold he’s hit only three times in Primary States (NH, VT and WI).
3. Even if Sanders won California with an astounding 70% of the vote? He’d still need a majority of delegates in every other contest.
Needless to say, these numbers don’t take into account the five races today, where Clinton has large leads in the two largest States (PA and MD) and is ahead or close in the other three.
I’m not saying Sanders should withdraw or suspend his campaign at this point. But at least be realistic about where this is going to end up. Clinton will have the most votes. She’ll have the most elected delegates. And her superdelegates aren’t going to shift on the basis of national head-to-head polls seven months out. We have our nominee.
(nb — the data references here is based on FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’s tallies)
= new reply since forum marked as read
But you'd better wait for the crowd to Bern the math and tell you its impossible for either candidate to win
