2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders Still Strongest Candidate as New Poll Shows Trump and Clinton in Near-Tie
Sanders continues to trounce Trump by double digits, 51 to 40 percent, according to the George Washington University survey
Though the media and political establishment have all but declared Hillary Clinton the official Democratic presidential candidate, new polling on Monday shows that Bernie Sanders continues to fare significantly better when matched against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.
According to the latest George Washington (GW) University Battleground Poll, Clinton's lead over Trump has shrunk to 3 percentage points, with her besting the billionaire developer by just 46 to 43 percent nationally. What's more, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Sanders continues to trounce Trump by double digits: 51 to 40 percent in the GW poll, and 53 to 37.8 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.
<snip>
In an interview with NBC News late last week, the Vermont senator spoke to this trend.
"I think there are a lot of Democrats out there who are scared to death—as I am—about the possibility of a Trump presidency," Sanders said. "And the Democrats, by and large, want to see the strongest candidate possible to take on and defeat Trump or some other Republican. At this point, according to virtually all of the polls, that candidate is me."
cont . . .
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/04/25/sanders-still-strongest-candidate-new-poll-shows-trump-and-clinton-near-tie
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silvershadow
(10,336 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Maybe not you personally....dunno. But there's be 9 OP's if this showed Clinton thrumping Trump.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)and attack ads are pretty worthless IMO. You need votes to become the nominee. That is the true definitive measure.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)and he'd also snag some Republican votes.
Hillary polls abysmally with Independents, Republicans despise her and a good chunk of Democrats will never support her.
She would be a disaster in a GE race. She has no path to victory.
Sanders clearly does.
This is why Sanders should stay in until the convention. Neither candidate will have the magic number in pledged delegates--before the convention.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)With a big lead in actual pledged delegates.
With a much larger lead in both actual votes and pledged delegates
this time tomorrow.
Broward
(1,976 posts)
Arkansas Granny
(31,518 posts)with their slime, rumors and lies. They've pretty much left him alone, so far, but they would pile on full force if he were to become the Democratic nominee. They've used these tactics on Hillary for 30+ years and she's still standing. I don't know if Bernie would fare so well.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)But, you're talking to the willfully deaf. THEIR GUY IS BEYOND REPROACH, if you haven't heard.
His perfection cannot be impugned by any RW smear machine, so there.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)that's the Clinton campaign using that right wing crapola.
Either way the right wing will dump all kind of stuff on either candidate
Gothmog
(145,304 posts)These match up polls are worthless but they are all that Sanders has to make the electablity argument. Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010
The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/
Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.
s
No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race. Sanders would be a very weak general election candidate
Gothmog
(145,304 posts)These polls are worthless because Sanders has not been vetted by the media http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-three-weeks-go-three-margin-error-races-n493946
These match up polls are not meaningful at this stage
Gothmog
(145,304 posts)These polls are worthless because Sanders has not been vetted by the media http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-three-weeks-go-three-margin-error-races-n493946
These match up polls are not meaningful at this stage
Gothmog
(145,304 posts)The premise of Sanders' lame claim that he should stay in is that he is a better candidate in the general election. That claim is simply false. Sanders has not been vetted which means that Sanders is very vulnerable to attack ads. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/04/19/some-republicans-see-socialist-bernie-sanders-as-the-weaker-opponent/
This current situation is in many ways unprecedented, and makes it harder than ever to gauge which candidate is more electable this fall. We have one Democratic candidate who has been a major national figure for 25 years, and has been subjected to unrelenting national attacks for just as long, and one Democratic candidate who legitimately is significantly more liberal than many in the party.
And so, it’s at least possible that two decades of attacks on Clinton are baked into her polling against the GOP candidates. Nor can the possibility be dismissed that some of Sanders’s positions (middle class tax hikes as part of a transition to single payer, which he defends on the grounds that Americans would benefit overall) could be made into liabilities, if Republicans prosecuted attacks on them effectively. There is a danger in being too risk averse, of course, but that doesn’t mean there is no chance that Republicans could successfully use these positions to paint Sanders as an ideological outlier, as those GOP strategists suggest above.
Of course, the fact that Sanders is a relative unknown nationally, at least compared to Clinton, could conceivably play in his favor — if he could successfully rebut GOP attacks on his proposals and background, he might arguably end up having less baggage in a general election than does Clinton, given her dismal personal ratings. And the rise of negative partisanship — in which voters are motivated more than ever by dislike of the other side — could also help mitigate any negatives about Sanders.
The point is that gaming out the electability argument — either way — is made harder than ever by the fact that the juxtaposition of these two particular figures has created such a strange and unique situation.
Match up polling is meaningless unless both candidates are fully vetted. Sanders is not vetted and is very vulnerable
Armstead
(47,803 posts),,more like 20 OP would bloom in profusion to prove her "elect-ability."
TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Maybe I missed it.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)
B Calm
(28,762 posts)that because RFK had been killed in June while campaigning, she had to remain in the race. Thus implying that Obama might get assassinated - so she had to stay in. You forgot that?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Read this comment from the pollster..
The Republican Party image is about the lowest it has ever been. The only thing that keeps them going is money and control of the RW media.
robbedvoter
(28,290 posts)Pay no attention at the state polls though
