2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMy (FWIW) prediction for tonight: Hillary nets around 25 delegates, Bernie will need 63% moving on
My prediction, being hopeful and generous to Bernie, is that he takes Rhode Island and Delaware, narrowly. Hillary takes CT narrowly and MD and PA by 12-15 points each. When the dust settles, I am hoping that Bernie drops fewer than 25 delegates behind from where he is now.
That would put the PD count at about B-1385 to H-1650. Hillary would be up about 265.
With 1,016 left moving forward, Bernie would need 641 of those to reach 2,026, or 63%.
The calendar is favorable for Bernie from now until June 7. Indiana is a midwestern open primary with 83 delegates. Guam and Virgin Islands are caucuses, with a total of 14 delegates. Oregon is Bernie country with 61 delegates. West Virginia (29) is semi closed primary and Kentucky (55) is a closed primary. Who knows? And Puerto Rico (60) is an open primary, but went big to Hillary in 08.
I don't expect much to change with respect to the bottom line between tonight and June 7, when 694 delegates are on the table.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)And a couple hundred thousand net votes at least...
RandySF
(58,911 posts)The state's profile points to Hillary winning there.