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morningfog

(18,115 posts)
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:15 AM Apr 2016

My (FWIW) prediction for tonight: Hillary nets around 25 delegates, Bernie will need 63% moving on

My prediction, being hopeful and generous to Bernie, is that he takes Rhode Island and Delaware, narrowly. Hillary takes CT narrowly and MD and PA by 12-15 points each. When the dust settles, I am hoping that Bernie drops fewer than 25 delegates behind from where he is now.

That would put the PD count at about B-1385 to H-1650. Hillary would be up about 265.

With 1,016 left moving forward, Bernie would need 641 of those to reach 2,026, or 63%.

The calendar is favorable for Bernie from now until June 7. Indiana is a midwestern open primary with 83 delegates. Guam and Virgin Islands are caucuses, with a total of 14 delegates. Oregon is Bernie country with 61 delegates. West Virginia (29) is semi closed primary and Kentucky (55) is a closed primary. Who knows? And Puerto Rico (60) is an open primary, but went big to Hillary in 08.

I don't expect much to change with respect to the bottom line between tonight and June 7, when 694 delegates are on the table.

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My (FWIW) prediction for tonight: Hillary nets around 25 delegates, Bernie will need 63% moving on (Original Post) morningfog Apr 2016 OP
Her net will be closer to 50 than 25... beachbum bob Apr 2016 #1
I disagree on DE RandySF Apr 2016 #2
There is no polling for DE DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #3
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