2016 Postmortem

TheDormouse

(1,168 posts) Tue Apr 26, 2016, 01:02 PM Apr 2016

YES !!!! Bernie 44%, Hillary 50% -- & Bernie has the momentum!

Hillary's support level has plateaued--she's got all the supporters she is going to get. But Bernie's still getting new supporters, as more potential voters hear his message.

Bernie is within striking distance of Hillary in national polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

12 replies

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YES !!!! Bernie 44%, Hillary 50% -- & Bernie has the momentum! (Original Post) TheDormouse Apr 2016 OP

Derp? Dem2 Apr 2016 #1

a change of 3% is negligible statistically TheDormouse Apr 2016 #3

No margin of error in aggregation n/t Godhumor Apr 2016 #6

Meta-analysis is still dependent on errors of individual polls TheDormouse Apr 2016 #12

It is when the +3% is due to the average change in 7 polls from reputable pollsters Dem2 Apr 2016 #9

+1 Derp. Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #8

Never heard of a state called 'National.' nt onehandle Apr 2016 #2

Then you definitely should get out more. TheDormouse Apr 2016 #5

bernie math? eom artyteacher Apr 2016 #4

Hmmm... winning from behind.... how does that work again? CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #7

Numbers do matter tonyt53 Apr 2016 #10

Votes cast to date, but not everyone has voted TheDormouse Apr 2016 #11

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

1. Derp?

Reply to TheDormouse (Original post)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 01:06 PM

Apr 2016

Hillary's lead was 3% less than a week ago, lead is now 6% - I don't get the enthusiasm?

TheDormouse

(1,168 posts)

3. a change of 3% is negligible statistically

Reply to Dem2 (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 01:06 PM

Apr 2016

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

6. No margin of error in aggregation n/t

Reply to TheDormouse (Reply #3)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 01:07 PM

Apr 2016

TheDormouse

(1,168 posts)

12. Meta-analysis is still dependent on errors of individual polls

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #6)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 01:24 PM

Apr 2016

whether you can calculate a margin of error or not.

The aggregate is exact for the polls themselves, but inexact for the measure the polls themselves are estimating.