2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Tue Apr 26, 2016, 03:23 PM Apr 2016

Why am I confident that Delaware is an early call for Clinton? Because of one little fact

The largest city in Delaware is Wilmington, and Wilmington happens to be 60% African American.

Like it or not, Hillary has won that demographic by substantial margins, and, with Delaware having one of the largest black population % of any state left, this will not be a competitive state.

As long as counts are being conducted relatively quickly, I'm comfortable saying that Delaware should be the second state called tonight (Maryland will be called within minutes of polls closing.).

7 replies

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Why am I confident that Delaware is an early call for Clinton? Because of one little fact (Original Post) Godhumor Apr 2016 OP

I'd say you have made an accurate assessment. tonyt53 Apr 2016 #1

How's your demographic analysis model holding up? Will you update it tomorrow? 1StrongBlackMan Apr 2016 #2

Yup. I think it will be either 10-11 or 11-11 after tonight Godhumor Apr 2016 #3

FYI, Rhode Island doesn't close the polls until 9 democrattotheend Apr 2016 #4

You sure? All the reporting sites have it listed as 8 PM Godhumor Apr 2016 #6

Looks like you are right democrattotheend Apr 2016 #7

KNR Lucinda Apr 2016 #5

tonyt53

(5,737 posts)

1. I'd say you have made an accurate assessment.

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 03:26 PM

Apr 2016

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)

2. How's your demographic analysis model holding up? Will you update it tomorrow?

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 03:47 PM

Apr 2016

{Had to edit out the ebonics ... LOL.}

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

3. Yup. I think it will be either 10-11 or 11-11 after tonight

Reply to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 04:00 PM

Apr 2016

The wild card is Rhode Island--the model sees it as a Clinton loss, but I think it is more of a toss-up.

I will recalibrate the model for May soon by folding in data from the first 11 contests tested.

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)

4. FYI, Rhode Island doesn't close the polls until 9

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #3)

Tue Apr 26, 2016, 04:03 PM

Apr 2016

I remember freaking out in 2004 as we were driving home after volunteering because they did not call New York and Rhode Island along with the rest of the Northeast at 8 pm. I figured if Kerry didn't win those states the second the polls closed he was in big trouble. Then I looked it up and saw that the polls were open for another hour.