I always look to that one. Above 55% is the number she needs

Both of these are trending in her favor.

She has never won young, but be careful of exit polls, there has been a large amount of people talking about how they are no good since in AZ and NY it showed Bernie doing way better. Since then tons of HRC reporters posted on how you can't trust them.

because younger people are more likely to vote for Bernie. In previous primaries, the average has been around 17%. So fewer younger people seem to be voting, unless they storm the polling places in the last couple hours.

A lower turn out has also always favored her, so if the turn out sucks, and hits below 80 she has won most likely.

You can go to green papers and look up the stats, in all of his caucus states he did well whit turn out that was close to the 2008 election or better. Hillary benefited for ballot harvesting though in a few states. If you are talking how less people are part of the caucus, that is a lie. There is no reason more people do not in my state, you can vote by main, but for some reason with vote by main and same day registration for party people did not show more than normal. Still you can't cheat the ballots in a caucus as much.

But "low turn out" refers to the normal turn out. The worst turn out for the season I think was Mississippi.

But that's what caucuses are designed to do -- depress turnout.

We have a beauty contest primary in WA -- it's votes don't count toward delegates -- and even though it's meaningless, three times as many voters participate.

I am in WA too. I know exactly our turn out. Hillary had about two that were in the 90s, she has yet to break any over that. She has the lowest turnout records in her wins. Our caucus was mail in and show up on Saturday. All you had to do was show up and drop off. You then could run for a delegate, unlike primary states where is it much harder to become a delegate. Did you have a problem getting to your caucus or doing a main in?I think a full main in, or a week long voting for all parties would be more fair.

it set all time records for our low turnout caucuses.

Where was a mail-in caucus? In WA there were very few acceptable reasons for voting by affidavit and using a mail in ballot. For instance, my son, an out of state college student, didn't qualify. Neither did anyone who lived in a rural area and didn't want to have to drive a few hours to get to their county caucus location. Neither did anyone without childcare who didn't want to drag their kids to a caucus for the morning.

I went to my caucus, but my son, a Bernie supporter, couldn't participate. That's our stupid caucus system.

I worked for the caucus, and I saw Hillary people passing them out. Hillary made far more use of them in our location. Not sure how your son could not use them. As for turn out, ours the years before were higher. I am reporting to the 2008 benchmark. Our primary may confuse some people to not vote, as for us, of the hundreds at my work, I know of several that did not vote....and had no excuse Sadly the democratic party has some of the record low turn outs of all times, mississippi may have been the lowest in history for them, but for Bernie he won several record turnouts that beat all turn outs on record. The collapse of the DNC and RNC is depressing, independents are now the largest group of people.

But here is the note from the Hillary group I got:

who couldn't get there?

My son was out of state and he'd have had to swear to a lie in order to get one. First he went online, then he made a phone call. And he didn't qualify.

Where on your list does it include college? Where does it include childcare issues or distance from a caucus site? Or just not having the energy or inclination to go to a caucus for several hours? Or wanting to vote with a secret ballot?

Nowhere.

When you registered to vote online you got the option to do it. I don't remember how the parties described it, but I think they said school was work, caring for others was possibly illness, and religion was such a broad term in Washington that it may have been the blanket term for everything else. It is a democratic rule...so the democratic party can call it. It is not a state law it is a party thing (2016 Washington State Delegate Selection and Affirmative Action Plan)...
http://www.wa-democrats.org/blog/draft-2016-delegate-selection-and-affirmative-action-plan
Sadly the link fails for me, but from the sounds of all people there were a million reasons you could claim to use it.

http://www.wa-democrats.org/sites/wadems/files/documents/2016%20Precinct%20Caucuses%20-%2099%20-%20Surrogate%20Affidavit%20Form.pdf

You're saying that everyone would feel fine swearing to something false in these affidavits, but that's not true.

We have primaries in WA. The electorate strongly approved replacing the caucuses with primaries. If the primary was used to divide delegates, EVERYONE would get an easy mail-in ballot and wouldn't have to tell any lies to get it. But our stupid Democratic party decided to go to court to retain caucuses, while the Republicans decided to use the primaries that the people voted for.

As for your son, not sure who he talked to, but both the Hillary and Bernie camps were saying that the definitions were more vague. As for childcare, many people brought their kids with them, or did a run in drop off. But I think the idea was if you are not able to come in because to are caring for someone then that is considered illness.


Oh found that the 2008 was record setting...

Here is list of turnout from this year. Washington's caucus isn't listed for some reason, but you can compare the turnout of other caucuses and primaries.

Caucuses have much lower turnout rates than primaries. And that's deliberate.

http://www.electproject.org/2016P

States hate primaries that are closed because they cost money and cheat the voters. A caucus is way cheaper. As shown in the article it was knowledge most people could have voted and just didn't. I have no clue why people did not want to take the time to show up or fill out the ballots. I don't like our ballots are not postage paid, for the general, that always seemed wrong. But as I said, our turn out was high compared to our other years, possibly the second highest. I think it should be a law to vote and have a day off, a week long, or mail in and mandatory. I know several people that had the day off two blocks from the caucus I walked to...they did not go in...they had no excuse. The caucus was not keeping them from it, they were just lazy b@st@rds. I work with some of them. I work with a Tunisian that loved Bernie's platform, but did not vote because he missed it. I like the caucus here because of the mail in and the fact we get a choice in the delegates. Anyone can be one...and I am one for the next meeting, but not the state... The vote for the state delegates was impressive to see all of the people campaigning for it, some great stories...actually would have made some great ads for Bernie with the vets talking about what they have gone through, the women fighting for people overseas, the stories of hard work...yeah I felt like a lazy lazy b@st@rd after hearing what they are doing.

A bit rambly there, but there was no excuse to not go to the caucus this year...but I think it could have been a lack of press, and they really needed to make it more clear on the work rules since I know for a fact people were saying every case you mentioned counted (I heard daycare, school, and several other things, and they said something as to the effect that who is it to say what your religion is, if you want time to meditate or go hiking, then it counts). I was a bit uneasy when I was first hearing it, but as I am an atheist, I really hate the religious acceptions clause because they almost always tell atheist they are shafted...honestly I think hair styles are no one's right to control, that is a social view, but social views are not religious.

So we hold a primary, and Democrats vote in it, and millions more Dems participate than in caucuses, but none of those votes determine the delegate assignments.

For that, we hold caucuses, and when we're at our caucuses they have the NERVE to pass out envelopes to help defer the costs. For the caucuses we voted to end.

As a primary would still end up being a caucus after the initial vote, like all of the rest. Not sure how much I like the whole representative democracy in the first place. I guess it could help prevent a primary theft like in Ohio (I think that is the one people claimed was stolen back in 2004) on a larger scale. I trust our caucus a bit more because we can catch people try to steal, and we can all post the results on line with pictures. I don't like how many primaries have showed voter irregularities that were never looked in to or hos provisionals get tossed. I am also not sure how I feel about ballot harvesting or the like as targeting people based on such things just makes me worried some one will be trying to steal my grammy's car and vote.

Did you know that?

And if you think cheating can never occur at a caucus, then you weren't paying attention when DUers were screaming about cheating at the Iowa and Nevada caucuses.