2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Can Still Win The Nomination: 5 Ways This Could Happen
So the battle continues until the convention. Don't get discouraged Bernie supporters. That's what the Hillaryites are hoping for. This is far from over!1. Clintons health fails in a very big and very public way. Shes had multiple public fainting spells since 2005, including one resulting in a broken elbow in 2009. In 2012, she suffered a concussion and was hospitalized with cerebral venous thrombosis, a life-threatening blood clot condition. Her campaign health statement acknowledges these problems and throws in hypothyroidism to boot, although characterizing the 67-year-old as enjoying excellent health.
2. Clinton is indicted in, or otherwise dragged down over, the Servergate affair, in which she appears to have illegally mishandled classified information while Secretary of State.
3. Clinton comes to big legal or political grief over apparent connections between large donations to her familys foundation on one hand and her actions as Secretary of State on the other. For example, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia donated $10 million to the Clinton Foundation and Boeing donated $900,000. Later, Secretary Clinton cleared a $29 billion arms deal involving the two parties. You can see how that kind of thing looks. There may be some there there.
4. The texts of Clintons Wall Street speeches, for which she received millions of dollars in honoraria, are leaked. Clintons refusal to release those texts tells us that their release would be politically damaging. Everything comes to light sooner or later. If its sooner that is, before July we may find out how just how damaging.
5. Clinton will not win enough elected (pledged) delegates to capture the nomination. It now appears likely this will in fact happen. That will enable the unpledged super delegates to vote for the candidate who they believe will have the best chance of defeating the Republican nominee. That would be Bernie.
Any of the top 4 scenarios might result in Hillary Clintons ignominious withdrawal from the presidential race and release of her delegates, followed by the partys scramble for an alternative nominee. If Bernie Sanders doesnt quit, he becomes the odds-on favorite for the job.
note: The top 4 scenarios were posted in the following article:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/25/bernie-sanders-wont-drop-out-heres-why/
onehandle
(51,122 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Well, if that's really the case I take it Hillary has suspended her primary election campaign.
Why spend millions of corporate and Wall Street dollars when it's wrapped up?
So when did the Democratic Party declare Hillary the nomination winner. Guess we all missed that!
The General Election campaign doesn't until after Hillary or Bernie has won the nomination. She can't secure enough elected (pledged) delegates before the convention so the Democratic Party won't decide before the convention who they will run for President.
That's just how it works.
Don't like those rules?
Change them.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)I'm sorry, that's utter filth.
And the fight for nomination is going to be over on June 7th. The super delegates won't move. Yes, they haven't cast their votes. Neither have the automatic delegates. She will have it all locked up.
Seek help for your derangement. Seriously, this is messed up.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)50+ year Democratic voter, supporter and activist here. I am a Sanders supporter, but as a long time party member, I have legitimate concerns about Clinton. I am VERY worried about the FBI investigation. It is unprecedented to have such an investigation on-going during a presidential campaign, with the Democratic frontrunner at the center of it. If the FBI doesn't come forth with a report with conclusions and recommendation to indict or not indict, before the GE, and Clinton wins the GE (which I think--and polls confirm--is dubious), but if she does, she's liable to be presented with Articles of Impeachment on the day after her inauguration. What will she be able to get done for us working people and poor people THEN?
I'm pretty well-informed about the FBI investigation, and, as I said, very concerned about nominating someone with such a cloud over her, and who could conceivable get indicted, or get mired in the indictments of her aides, before, during or after the convention. But I hadn't thought about her health. I had had some vague misgivings about her appearance. She sometimes looks puffy and unhealthy and, frankly, she sometimes looks drugged up. But I hadn't thought of specific illnesses, as laid out in this OP's list. I certainly don't wish her health to fail. I have strong ethical constraints against wishing any such thing, against anybody. But it is now more of a concern to me than it was before--as to her fitness to be president. It seems like she's absent from the campaign trail for long periods, and we just don't see, in her, the obvious vigor of Bernie Sanders who is older.
Anyway, please have some respect for this old Democrat, whose history with the Democratic Party goes back to 1960 when I canvassed for JFK at age 16. That's a long time to be participating in and observing our nation's political life. I, and I know many others my age, and wise and informed people of all kinds, are worried about a number of things with Clinton, besides the aura of scandal and corruption around her--her "baggage"--and her cozying up to people like Robert Kagan (PNAC--chief Neo-Con, architect of the Bush junta's blueprint for military domination of the ME and the world), her probable lie about the TPP (she will enact it, no matter what she says from day to day), and her involvement in major disasters like Honduras and Libya. Can she even conduct the business of government, with her health and being dogged by the RW morons Congress? Will she or won't she be indicted before, during or after the convention, or be so crippled by this (yet another) scandal that she loses the GE? Her favorability and trustworthy numbers are so bad that, add another scandal, and she may well get demolished in the GE.
Is that what we want?
Corporate666
(587 posts)O'Malley is definitely getting the nomination.
Hillary will get indicted. Bernie will suffer a stroke and get sent to a care home. Then it's O'Malley's time to shine.
(the above has about as much chance of happening as any of the scenarios in the OP where Bernie would get the nomination).
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Sanders is entitled to go into the convention with as many delegates as he can earn, and his supporters back him. If Clinton can't sustain a primary battle, she sure can't win a GE.... She'll ask Trump to drop out in Oct? LOL!
LWolf
(46,179 posts)That doesn't happen until July 29th.
Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)It will be called...on this site. AS it was, in 08.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)Predict all you like; it's too bad we don't have one of those office pools going around.
Calling "it" on this site will not make it "General Election season." That doesn't start until July 29th. Calling "it" on this site simply means that we won't talk about the primaries any more ON THIS SITE. Of course, doing so before all Democrats actually get to participate in their own primary would be supremely undemocratic; but then, so many of those that call themselves Democrats don't value democratic principles.
brooklynite
(94,571 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Rooting this hard for poor health and/or the indictment of the presumptive nominee is really bad form.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Fuck Ron Paul.
Sid
NanceGreggs
(27,814 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
NanceGreggs
(27,814 posts)It's just that they don't seem to have noticed that their port is a rickety lean-to that was swept out to sea months ago.
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Its the old ladies that are to frail to be President, don't you know?
Zynx
(21,328 posts)This is officially the shittiest, nastiest thing I've seen posted here on a while. You should be ashamed of yourself and if I saw you in person I would yell at you about this until you realized just how low you've sunk.
Filth.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)athena
(4,187 posts)I wonder if the OP will apologize for this. I'm not holding my breath.
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)athena
(4,187 posts)If anything, the OP is much nastier than what Clinton said eight years ago.
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)athena
(4,187 posts)because no one here is running for president?
It's hypocritical to criticize Hillary for making a statement eight years ago that could be interpreted as an offensive statement, and then make that same statement much more directly against her. Either it's an offensive statement, or it's not. You can't have it both ways.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)athena
(4,187 posts)if someone followed you around with a camera for 40 years, analyzing and publicizing every single thing you said?
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Do you have an opinion on the 5 points raised?
Zynx
(21,328 posts)hope. I presented an opinion on that.
The FBI investigation point is crap and you know it.
As to the general issue about the super delegates not being actually locked up, they will be immovable from her once California is in, regardless of its outcome, because she'll be ahead in votes and pledged delegates. These are elected officials and other DNC dignitaries. They're not going to overturn the will of the Democratic electorate. It's over come June 7th, almost no matter what.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)have to answer to Hillary Clinton, or William Clinton or Wall Street for their votes.
itsrobert
(14,157 posts)Drink some warm milk and take a long nap. Rest.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)And we're not talking pocket change.
mcar
(42,331 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Fuck all Ayn Rand/Ron Paul loons!
Plus the post is total BS from beginning to end!
athena
(4,187 posts)But since it's about Hillary, it's all good.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Time to CALL IT Skinner!!
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)That information is in my posted link.
Isn't that how you found out about that center.
Now if you can calm down and present a clear headed and well thought out critique of the article that would be welcomed.
Can you do that?
Oh .... William Lloyd Garrison was a significant abolitionist leader whose positive contributions are appreciated by all liberals and progressives .... except for those are who unfamiliar with American history and the fight against slavery.
William Lloyd Garrison was a prominent American abolitionist, journalist, suffragist, and social reformer. He is best known as the editor of the abolitionist newspaper The Liberator, which he founded with Isaac Knapp in 1831 and published in Massachusetts until slavery was abolished by Constitutional amendment after the American Civil War
You might want to read some serious literature regarding Garrison before you launch any more attacks on him.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)A swift Constitutional Convention could be held, and our nation could decide to have the primaries decided by a dance-off, and the GE decided by a UFC octagon cage match.
Intelligent apes could conquer the nation.
This summer, Sea World might kick it up a notch by introducing genetically modified dinosaurs to the park.
Bernie Sanders might win Powerball and retire to Florida.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)It's garbage to be desperately holding out hope that somebody dies just so your favored candidate can win. It says a lot about the author and the people forwarding it on.
Algernon Moncrieff
(5,790 posts)tgards79
(1,415 posts)Are you actually rooting for these scenarios????
LonePirate
(13,424 posts)I proudly voted for Bernie but some of his fellow supporters disgust me when they post or say crap like this.
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)And yes, some are actually routing for these outlandish scenarios.
It really twisted
tgards79
(1,415 posts)1) .00001 %. She has never had a compelling illness. Bernie, at age 162, is far more likely to develop one than Hillary.
2) 1%. Highly unlikely there is anything here.
3) 0%. The NY Times wrote a huge article on the money and it went pffff....
4) 0%. The odds that Hillary's speeches contain a knockout blow are nil.
5) 0% The Super D's will switch even though Clinton has won far more delegates? Huh?
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,412 posts)dubyadiprecession
(5,711 posts)or does nobody go to those groups anymore.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)To be the nominee or they will vaporize America....
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)?ssl=1
riversedge
(70,218 posts)Gothmog
(145,242 posts)Anyone silly enough to believe the premise of the OP should open an Irish brokerage account and put their money where their mouth is. Predictwise has Clinton at 98% to be the nominee which means that you would get great odds http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination In other words, the free market system and the smart money making a market here do not think that any of the options listed above are going to happen.
Gman
(24,780 posts)MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)scandal or health failings (and Hillary refuses to bail out) the super delegates will vote AT LEAST 50% + 1 for the winner of the pledged delegates.
#5 is essentially covered by #1, #2, and possibly #4.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)The most compelling reason for Bernie Sanders to continue his campaign is that he has a shot at victory.
By Donald Brand | Contributor
US News & World Report
April 27, 2016
Sanders might justify staying in the race because he wants to influence the platform. This reasoning is dubious, because Sanders has already won enough support to demand significant concessions on the platform. He has also managed to force Clinton to the left on economic issues, particularly tougher Wall Street regulation and on economic inequality. It is not clear that winning more delegates will push her further to the left. The more compelling reason that Bernie should stay in the race is that he could still win.
Clinton is indicted, the superdelegates over whom she holds a commanding lead could massively desert her. The only thing that binds them is their promise, a promise few would hesitate to break if they were convinced that Clinton would lose in the general election. Without the superdelegates, Clinton will not get to 2,383, the number of delegates she needs to win on the first ballot. Her current lead of 826 delegates would shrink to 308 pledged delegates. If all of the superdelegates shifted from Clinton to Sanders, admittedly an unrealistic hypothetical, Sanders would actually lead Clinton by 210 delegates. If the convention requires multiple ballots, with each successive ballot more delegates will become unpledged.
A Sanders victory is still plausible.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-04-27/why-bernie-sanders-could-still-become-the-democratic-nominee
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)lmbradford
(517 posts)I'm beginning to think it might actually happen. Joe DiGenova says that there is already a grand jury and they are in fact gathering the info and testimony to investigate all angles. He says that this is not about emails. It is about that server and the handling of it. He says espionage not data is the issue. IF you get a chance, you should watch the c=span video. It is very insightful and full of information that is not publicly known. Very good information.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)That one seems a it too negative. I pretty much hate her, but I would not want something bad to happen to her. It just seems like when she was waxing lyrical about Bobby getting assassinated in June. I think all we need is enough of a wake-up call to our voters, if something comes out that is hard for the press to ignore and her fire wall of paid DNC delegates...her house of cards would collapse. I think the last one is the current thing that will happen. It should be moved to the top. Not sure if I like him taking the superdelegates, but she cheated with them at the start so it is kind of a stolen election already. I would still want people openly calling for her to drop out because all of her corruption finally caught up to her, otherwise the HRC camp will be fractured.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)and New York, Arizona and Mass end up actually going to Bernie. Just thought I'd help. Until they throw me out of her for not getting onboard Her Majesty's train.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)No sense of civility or what is appropriate to post on a Democratic site. Hoping a host of bad things to happen to Hillary is one more indication how low civil discourse on this board has fallen. Nothing but nasty people wishing ill on others.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)This is a Democratic site, there should be some level of respect and civility among its members. Just like in the real world, common courtesy and good manners seem to have gone the way of the VCR.
hopemountain
(3,919 posts)if she is indicted before the convention, the gop - which is pushing for an indictment will have bernie running in the general election against whatever gop candidate wins the nomination. none of them can win against bernie in the general. but, they can win against hillary.
the last thing the the gop goons want is a democratic socialist in the white house.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)All of your scenarios involve Hillary losing herself...Bernie can not 'win'. He needs a larger event to get the nomination. Her health is fine and she won't be indicted...none of that will happen...as for the pledged delegates...that is not an issue and you know it...the Supers will go with the candidate with the most delegates and put them over the top...this happened in 2008 with Obama. This post is not helpful in our new priority...beating the Republicans.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)The super delegates are free agents. They are free to vote for whomever they wish. They are not bound or pledged to any candidate.
Period.