2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton needs 59.37% of the remaining pledged delegates to capture nomination.
Hillary has 1,645 pledged delegates.
Hillary needs to win 738 out of the remaining 1,243 pledged delegates to capture the nomination.
That's over 59%!
She won't do that.
It will be an open convention in which the super delegate free agents will pick the nominee.
They can vote for anyone and are not required under convention rules to vote for any candidate they may have indicated a preference for prior to the convention. In fact, the super delegates can even abstain and not vote for or against Clinton or Bernie on the 1st ballot to test the political winds.
Case closed.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)unbelievable
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)scscholar
(2,902 posts)It's pure math. She can't win outright without resorting to subverting the democratic process by trying to bribe superdelegates.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Subverting the democratic process? Do you have zero understanding of how this works or are you deliberately obfuscating? She will go into the convention with well over 50% of elected delegates. No-one denies that point. The OP in this thread is the one who is advocating subverting the democratic process.
onenote
(42,703 posts)So why is it subverting the democratic process when superdelegates support the candidate that won the greatest number of pledged delegates and the lion's share of the popular vote but not subverting it when, as you imagine they will, they instead vote for the candidate that came in second in the pledged delegate race?
Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)The supers always vote for the candidate with more pledged delegates...if Bernie goes to the convention and tries anything ...he is finished in the Senate...no more cushy committees...all done. I don't think he would anyway...if he is a decent guy...he will do it by acclamation as Hillary did for Obama.
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)It's the ink rationale he's got left.
desmiller
(747 posts)Gomez163
(2,039 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Gomez163
(2,039 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)No amount of denial is going to change that.
amborin
(16,631 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)Open convention means that no one gets the majority of delegates.
Democrats have pledged and unpledged delegates. Each state has a certain number of both. Each state reports all,of their delegate votes when they are called.
So, Hillary will get plenty of delegates before Wyomimg ever gets a chance to report.
Not open. Not contested. Clear majority won by Clinton.
This silliness about open and contested conventions indicates that the Sanders supporters don't understand the Democratic Convention process.
LiberalFighter
(50,928 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)Look like morons?
God they are insufferable
LiberalFighter
(50,928 posts)TeacherB87
(249 posts)Your math is completely wrong. Hillary would only need 59% of remaining delegates (or something close to it) if you look at her current total WITHOUT superdelegates and compare that to the target (a majority) needed among ALL delegates. How convention delegates work at the nominating convention is pretty common knowledge. So you are either uninformed about this topic or deliberately misleading people.
LexVegas
(6,063 posts)savalez
(3,517 posts)kennetha
(3,666 posts)No delegates vote until the ballot is taken. And there is no way in hades Clinton doesn't win on a first ballot. Indeed, if Sanders has any class, he'll do like Clinton did and move that Hillary be nominated by acclimation.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The case is closed on Sanders fail campaign so that part is right, congrats OP!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Clinton will be declared the nominee after the first ballot.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)remaining delegates, it appears there is going to be enough pledged delegates left to give Sanders a victory unless he gets a larger percentage of the pledged delegates. Now for the real math, Hillary has 2168 delegates leaving only 215 more delegates to win the nomination on the first vote. Do you think Sanders is going to be able to get 1024 delegates out of the remainder delegates and Hillary will not get the 215?
LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)Gothmog
(145,242 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)in the manner that the GOP does? You seem to have a magical fantasy that all the pledged ones vote first, and if neither candidate reaches 2,383 from that, the supers are like a final body that you think Sanders will make an emotive appeal to.
The reality is that superdelegates vote alongside their state's pledged delegates.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)They do that, you know.
brooklynite
(94,571 posts)...if you disagree, show us how Sanders beats her.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Camp Sanders spent months screaming about the unfairness of the superdelegate system, but now that the supers are Bernie's only hope, you seek to manipulate them in whatever manner best suits you, and him?
I'm not sure whether to laugh or just take pity here.
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)I'm beginning to feel sorry for them. It's sad to see this happening to them. Logic has been jettisoned.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)I'll play along pretending you're not a right winger trying to sow dissension. The superdelegates aren't going to give the second place candidate the nomination. That's not how things work with conventions. Hillary will have the lead in the popular vote, the pledged delegates and the superdelegates. She will get the nomination. Case closed.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Take your horse shit and dump it somewhere else!
So I take it when you're not pretending I'm "not a right winger trying to sow dissension" you are claiming that is what in fact I'm am.
Careful there.
You're treading on thin ice when you make such accusations against progressive DU'ers such as myself.
Do you wish to stick to that false charge?
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)I'm not interested in your faux outrage. I'll stick with the thin ice.
tritsofme
(17,378 posts)For what it's worth, I don't think you're a right-winger, it looks like the delusion is very real.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts).
tritsofme
(17,378 posts)Has your fever broken? Do you realize now our convention will not be "open" but an orderly and scripted affair?
brooklynite
(94,571 posts)It will not be an open Convention. The notion that "superdelegates can vote for anyone" is as meaningless as "it's still mathematically possible for Sanders to win". The superdelegates who have announced support for Clinton will retain their support for Clinton. Nobody has presented them with the coherent reason to switch (hint: professional politicians aren't impressed by anonymous bloggers talking them about head-to-head polls). More superdelegates will announce their support for her before the Convention. They will all show in Philadelphia and will vote for Clinton on the first ballot.
The day you acknowledge that superdelegates and the majority of Democratic voters actually like Hillary Clinton" will be your first step to recovery.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)See you in Philly!
Zynx
(21,328 posts)It's the same situation as 2008, but she's in better shape.
Faux pas
(14,681 posts)with pride and defiance.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)Clinton will go into the convention with overwhelming majorities of both delegates and popular vote.
It is not the case that there is any chance whatsoever that the superdelegates will overturn that.
It is also not the case that it is morally acceptable to call for them to do so.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)You would flunk with an "F"....
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)He can talk til the cows come home, the superdelegates are not going to jump ship and support a candidate 3,000,000 votes and ~300 pledged delegates in the hole.
This is especially funny, as Camp Sanders has for months pitched the mother of all hissy fits over the superdelegate system, back when they assumed Bernie would win the pledged count and Hillary would try to maneuver the supers to usurp him at the convention.
The shoe being on the other foot now is most, most delicious.
brooklynite
(94,571 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)"Shove it you asshat."
Let's see, constantly insult the party, it's member and it process...get millions FEWER votes...only win in caucus or "open" primaries....and continue to spread ring wing lies about a party leader.
Yeah, that'll work
LiberalFighter
(50,928 posts)They will remind him of what he has been saying about Democrats in the past and now.
From his own Press Release: Sanders to Democratic Party: Whose Side are We On?
Sanders also faulted Democrats for not pushing election reforms that would increase voter turnout and help Democrats win elections. For example, he said, Democrats should get behind legislation he introduced in the Senate to register everyone to vote when they turn 18 years old. The Democratic Party has got to be very clear. We need automatic voter registration. In 2015, Oregon became the first state in the nation to require state agencies to automatically register voters when they get a new drivers license or identification card.
They will remind him that he has campaigned and fundraised against Democrats. They will remind him that he is still identified as Independent regarding his re-election Senate campaign. They will remind him of why the university terminated his wife.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)She will be SIGNIFICANTLY ahead in pledged delegates and barring the indictment fairy coming, there is no way Sanders flips enough Supers to win. And if he did, what does that say about his respect for democracy? He lost the popular vote. By a LOT.
pampango
(24,692 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)Bernie can not win...she will be ahead in pledged delegates. She is ahead of him in polls for future primaries too. If he has not conceded by the convention, during the first ballot...Hillary is ahead...supers add on their votes...she wins...over and done. And at this point, Bernie will be escorted out no doubt and will be a pariah forever. My guess is he will concede after California. I don't see him taking it to the convention...he would be finished politically: he would have no committees or anything. By the way...it was much closer in 08 and the supers put Obama ahead...this is why the Democrats do not have contested conventions which is smart in my opinion. The supers vote for the person who win the pledged delegates, and Bernie can not catch up.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)I have seen no posts detailing these Clinton abuses. I seems the only abuse Bernie endured was losing.
BootinUp
(47,148 posts)yardwork
(61,608 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)yardwork
(61,608 posts)procon
(15,805 posts)Failed Math 101 - check
Failed Civics - check
Failed USGov - check
Failed AmHist - check
Failed Current Events- check
Failed Social Networking - check
Failed Remedial Reading - check
Failed Reality - check
Failed Crystal Ball Gazing - check
Failed Tea Leaf Predictions - check
Failed Mind Reading- check
Failed Drug Test - check
Case closed.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)LonePirate
(13,424 posts)RandySF
(58,832 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)Of course the super delegates are going to deny the nomination to the candidate who outpaces Sanders in pledged delegates and even the popular vote. That's why Hillary is president today.
Yeah, that's bound to happen.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)It's fucking over! The lights are turned off. The floor sweeper left an hour ago. The only one left at the party is the old guy with a lampshade on his head screaming "oligarchs!"
It's exhausting.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)Wait. I'll havei to ignore you too to not see your drivel. Damn. Well I don't ignore people because it is childish.
brooklynite
(94,571 posts)After the voting was done, everyone knew Obama had won the nomination. Nobody thought the superdelegates were going to change their minds.
2016 will be no different.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)See you at the convention where Hillary will win on the first and only ballot
LiberalFighter
(50,928 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)361 out of 1016, to win a majority of the pledged delegates.
And the candidate with the most pledged delegates will win the nomination.
Sid
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)superdelegates count - they don't need your approval.
Maybe a new hobby would help.
MFM008
(19,808 posts)Sancho
(9,070 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)There is no difference between pledged delegates and superdelegates when it comes to voting. Whoever has enough pledged and superdelegates to equal 2383 or more wins.
This argument that not getting enough pledged delegates mean a contested election is a false argument. It has no relationship to reality. It is demonstrably false.
Currently, Clinton has 2165 according to the AP. (Pledged plus superdelegates) Sanders has 1357 (Pledged plus superdelegates)
One of them will have a total of pledged plus superdelegates equalling 2383 or more. That will be the winner.
Democratic primaries award delegates proportionally. Clinton needs 218 delegates. They can be pledged rn superdelegates, because they all count in the first vote.
Sanders needs 708 more pledged and super delegates to win.
Please stop posting this false information.
For your information, in 2008, 2117 delegates were needed to win. Obama only had 1,828½ pledged delegates.
His 478 superdelegates brought him the victory. Notice that there was no contested convention because he did not have to win by pledged delegates.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)LOVED the prince side eye