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imagine2015

(2,054 posts)
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:25 PM Apr 2016

Clinton needs 59.37% of the remaining pledged delegates to capture nomination.

Hillary has 1,645 pledged delegates.

Hillary needs to win 738 out of the remaining 1,243 pledged delegates to capture the nomination.

That's over 59%!

She won't do that.

It will be an open convention in which the super delegate free agents will pick the nominee.

They can vote for anyone and are not required under convention rules to vote for any candidate they may have indicated a preference for prior to the convention. In fact, the super delegates can even abstain and not vote for or against Clinton or Bernie on the 1st ballot to test the political winds.

Case closed.

88 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Clinton needs 59.37% of the remaining pledged delegates to capture nomination. (Original Post) imagine2015 Apr 2016 OP
Haha this bullshit again jcgoldie Apr 2016 #1
Look at the poster's DU name: "Imagine" COLGATE4 Apr 2016 #5
So you don't agree with math? scscholar Apr 2016 #28
That may be the most ignorant statement I've read here jcgoldie Apr 2016 #34
And, presumably, you concede that Bernie can't win outright without the superdelegates onenote Apr 2016 #37
+1 Agschmid Apr 2016 #57
she has more pledged delegates Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #48
You know you just described Bernies strategy right? Renew Deal Apr 2016 #76
I rather take this than the bullshit Hillary and her camp toss any day. desmiller Apr 2016 #33
And unicorns will fly out of my butt. Gomez163 Apr 2016 #2
You need to do something about that. imagine2015 Apr 2016 #9
More salads. Gomez163 Apr 2016 #13
You are part of an increasing minority. It's over. Trust Buster Apr 2016 #3
Ya think Hillary is a Wall Street trust buster? LOL imagine2015 Apr 2016 #18
Don't care. The Judicial Branch is what's at stake here. Trust Buster Apr 2016 #20
DU needs padded walls. Garrett78 Apr 2016 #4
The supers aren't switching. NuclearDem Apr 2016 #6
K&R it will be an open convention amborin Apr 2016 #7
What do you mean? Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #40
They are relying on others that also don't have the information. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #66
To do what? Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #67
That too. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #72
Incorrect TeacherB87 Apr 2016 #8
... LexVegas Apr 2016 #10
That is INCORRECT. savalez Apr 2016 #11
But, but.... kennetha Apr 2016 #12
Nope workinclasszero Apr 2016 #14
#berniemath...nt SidDithers Apr 2016 #15
Super delegates will vote for the pledged delegate leader KingFlorez Apr 2016 #16
Now that we are in the General Election, BS OPs like this are not helpful. nt onehandle Apr 2016 #17
Your math does not add up, Sanders needs 1024 pledged delegates, if Hillary needs 738 out of the Thinkingabout Apr 2016 #19
^^this^^ nt LaydeeBug Apr 2016 #83
Ignoring super delegates will not make them go away Gothmog Apr 2016 #21
Are you aware of the fact that the Democratic party does not have an "open convention" Tarc Apr 2016 #22
They can vote for anyone or abstain during the 1st ballot to see check the political winds. imagine2015 Apr 2016 #24
The political winds will have pushed Clinton to a majority of elected delegates... brooklynite Apr 2016 #26
Actually, no, they don't Tarc Apr 2016 #29
It's actually very pitiful. Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #42
LOL leftynyc Apr 2016 #23
"pretending you're not a right winger" You're accusing me a being a right-wing Republican! imagine2015 Apr 2016 #27
Yawn leftynyc Apr 2016 #35
LOL...The lady doth protest too much, methinks. tritsofme Apr 2016 #47
doth? doth! doth? doth? I'll see your doth and raise you a hence! imagine2015 Apr 2016 #49
Ok! tritsofme Apr 2016 #84
Case reopened brooklynite Apr 2016 #25
#BernieMath ucrdem Apr 2016 #30
A first ballot victory is not an open convention. Zynx Apr 2016 #31
Kickin' Faux pas Apr 2016 #32
What you say is technically correct, and utterly misleading and intellectually dishonest. Donald Ian Rankin Apr 2016 #36
Ignoring superdelegates... If this was school paper beachbum bob Apr 2016 #38
Bernie isn't ignoring them. In fact, he will be talking to most of them before the convention. imagine2015 Apr 2016 #39
KInda like his 5-minute flyby of the Pope in a foyer? Tarc Apr 2016 #41
...and they'll be saying "thanks awfully for your interest, but no..." brooklynite Apr 2016 #62
And they say... Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #64
And when he talks to those automatic delegates... LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #71
She will win on the first ballot. No open convention. Adrahil Apr 2016 #43
I want Bernie to win but not if the Establishment has to rescue him from primary voters. n/t pampango Apr 2016 #44
We've got a stage #1'er here stevenleser Apr 2016 #45
Absolutely not true Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #46
Absolutely true! imagine2015 Apr 2016 #50
Details? Demsrule86 Apr 2016 #85
More like 35%. nt BootinUp Apr 2016 #51
Bookmarked. /nt yardwork Apr 2016 #52
Good lord, that has to be a LONG list by now. Agschmid Apr 2016 #58
No, first one. yardwork Apr 2016 #73
Another Epic Fail! procon Apr 2016 #53
Google how Obama clinched the nomination in 2008. That's how it works. Metric System Apr 2016 #54
The super delegates have always sided with the pledged delegate leader. 2016 will be no different. LonePirate Apr 2016 #55
Good luck with that RandySF Apr 2016 #56
Hang on to that last thread of hope, why don't you? Beacool Apr 2016 #59
Clinton won. Sanders lost. Winner.... Loser. seabeyond Apr 2016 #60
it ain't over. Hiraeth Apr 2016 #63
Jesus on a French fry! Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #65
you are tiring and boring. welcome to ignore. Hiraeth Apr 2016 #68
Thank god Stuckinthebush Apr 2016 #69
Are you saying that 2008 was an "Open Convention"? brooklynite Apr 2016 #61
#berniemathistehstoopid workinclasszero Apr 2016 #70
Under your math... Sanders needs 99.7% of the remaining pledged delegates. LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #74
Clinton needs 35.6% of the remaining pledged delegates... SidDithers Apr 2016 #75
And Bernie needs over 100%, with your Bernie Math Lil Missy Apr 2016 #77
The dye is cast MFM008 Apr 2016 #78
OMG...is there anyone smarter than a 5th grader? Sancho Apr 2016 #79
This is 100% false. Whoever reaches 2383 pledged and superdelegates wins. She needs 218 delegates. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2016 #80
Desperation is escalating. Lil Missy Apr 2016 #81
Sadly for you, her pledged super delegates will get her there easily. nt LaydeeBug Apr 2016 #82
Lol, that's adorable. PeaceNikki Apr 2016 #86
where are you getting your gifs from? you're on a great roll today La Lioness Priyanka Apr 2016 #87
There are some great Prince ones here: PeaceNikki Apr 2016 #88
 

scscholar

(2,902 posts)
28. So you don't agree with math?
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:54 PM
Apr 2016

It's pure math. She can't win outright without resorting to subverting the democratic process by trying to bribe superdelegates.

jcgoldie

(11,631 posts)
34. That may be the most ignorant statement I've read here
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 01:07 PM
Apr 2016

Subverting the democratic process? Do you have zero understanding of how this works or are you deliberately obfuscating? She will go into the convention with well over 50% of elected delegates. No-one denies that point. The OP in this thread is the one who is advocating subverting the democratic process.

onenote

(42,703 posts)
37. And, presumably, you concede that Bernie can't win outright without the superdelegates
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 01:18 PM
Apr 2016

So why is it subverting the democratic process when superdelegates support the candidate that won the greatest number of pledged delegates and the lion's share of the popular vote but not subverting it when, as you imagine they will, they instead vote for the candidate that came in second in the pledged delegate race?

Demsrule86

(68,576 posts)
48. she has more pledged delegates
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 09:06 PM
Apr 2016

The supers always vote for the candidate with more pledged delegates...if Bernie goes to the convention and tries anything ...he is finished in the Senate...no more cushy committees...all done. I don't think he would anyway...if he is a decent guy...he will do it by acclamation as Hillary did for Obama.

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
40. What do you mean?
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 08:46 PM
Apr 2016

Open convention means that no one gets the majority of delegates.

Democrats have pledged and unpledged delegates. Each state has a certain number of both. Each state reports all,of their delegate votes when they are called.

So, Hillary will get plenty of delegates before Wyomimg ever gets a chance to report.

Not open. Not contested. Clear majority won by Clinton.

This silliness about open and contested conventions indicates that the Sanders supporters don't understand the Democratic Convention process.

 

TeacherB87

(249 posts)
8. Incorrect
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:29 PM
Apr 2016

Your math is completely wrong. Hillary would only need 59% of remaining delegates (or something close to it) if you look at her current total WITHOUT superdelegates and compare that to the target (a majority) needed among ALL delegates. How convention delegates work at the nominating convention is pretty common knowledge. So you are either uninformed about this topic or deliberately misleading people.

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
12. But, but....
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:31 PM
Apr 2016

No delegates vote until the ballot is taken. And there is no way in hades Clinton doesn't win on a first ballot. Indeed, if Sanders has any class, he'll do like Clinton did and move that Hillary be nominated by acclimation.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
16. Super delegates will vote for the pledged delegate leader
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:32 PM
Apr 2016

Clinton will be declared the nominee after the first ballot.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
19. Your math does not add up, Sanders needs 1024 pledged delegates, if Hillary needs 738 out of the
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:39 PM
Apr 2016

remaining delegates, it appears there is going to be enough pledged delegates left to give Sanders a victory unless he gets a larger percentage of the pledged delegates. Now for the real math, Hillary has 2168 delegates leaving only 215 more delegates to win the nomination on the first vote. Do you think Sanders is going to be able to get 1024 delegates out of the remainder delegates and Hillary will not get the 215?

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
22. Are you aware of the fact that the Democratic party does not have an "open convention"
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:42 PM
Apr 2016

in the manner that the GOP does? You seem to have a magical fantasy that all the pledged ones vote first, and if neither candidate reaches 2,383 from that, the supers are like a final body that you think Sanders will make an emotive appeal to.


The reality is that superdelegates vote alongside their state's pledged delegates.

 

imagine2015

(2,054 posts)
24. They can vote for anyone or abstain during the 1st ballot to see check the political winds.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:49 PM
Apr 2016

They do that, you know.

brooklynite

(94,571 posts)
26. The political winds will have pushed Clinton to a majority of elected delegates...
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:53 PM
Apr 2016

...if you disagree, show us how Sanders beats her.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
29. Actually, no, they don't
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 01:02 PM
Apr 2016

Camp Sanders spent months screaming about the unfairness of the superdelegate system, but now that the supers are Bernie's only hope, you seek to manipulate them in whatever manner best suits you, and him?

I'm not sure whether to laugh or just take pity here.

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
42. It's actually very pitiful.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 08:48 PM
Apr 2016

I'm beginning to feel sorry for them. It's sad to see this happening to them. Logic has been jettisoned.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
23. LOL
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:46 PM
Apr 2016

I'll play along pretending you're not a right winger trying to sow dissension. The superdelegates aren't going to give the second place candidate the nomination. That's not how things work with conventions. Hillary will have the lead in the popular vote, the pledged delegates and the superdelegates. She will get the nomination. Case closed.

 

imagine2015

(2,054 posts)
27. "pretending you're not a right winger" You're accusing me a being a right-wing Republican!
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:53 PM
Apr 2016

Take your horse shit and dump it somewhere else!

So I take it when you're not pretending I'm "not a right winger trying to sow dissension" you are claiming that is what in fact I'm am.

Careful there.

You're treading on thin ice when you make such accusations against progressive DU'ers such as myself.

Do you wish to stick to that false charge?

tritsofme

(17,378 posts)
47. LOL...The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 09:02 PM
Apr 2016

For what it's worth, I don't think you're a right-winger, it looks like the delusion is very real.

tritsofme

(17,378 posts)
84. Ok!
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 06:08 PM
Apr 2016

Has your fever broken? Do you realize now our convention will not be "open" but an orderly and scripted affair?

brooklynite

(94,571 posts)
25. Case reopened
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 12:52 PM
Apr 2016

It will not be an open Convention. The notion that "superdelegates can vote for anyone" is as meaningless as "it's still mathematically possible for Sanders to win". The superdelegates who have announced support for Clinton will retain their support for Clinton. Nobody has presented them with the coherent reason to switch (hint: professional politicians aren't impressed by anonymous bloggers talking them about head-to-head polls). More superdelegates will announce their support for her before the Convention. They will all show in Philadelphia and will vote for Clinton on the first ballot.

The day you acknowledge that superdelegates and the majority of Democratic voters actually like Hillary Clinton" will be your first step to recovery.

Zynx

(21,328 posts)
31. A first ballot victory is not an open convention.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 01:03 PM
Apr 2016

It's the same situation as 2008, but she's in better shape.

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
36. What you say is technically correct, and utterly misleading and intellectually dishonest.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 01:13 PM
Apr 2016

Clinton will go into the convention with overwhelming majorities of both delegates and popular vote.

It is not the case that there is any chance whatsoever that the superdelegates will overturn that.

It is also not the case that it is morally acceptable to call for them to do so.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
41. KInda like his 5-minute flyby of the Pope in a foyer?
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 08:48 PM
Apr 2016


He can talk til the cows come home, the superdelegates are not going to jump ship and support a candidate 3,000,000 votes and ~300 pledged delegates in the hole.

This is especially funny, as Camp Sanders has for months pitched the mother of all hissy fits over the superdelegate system, back when they assumed Bernie would win the pledged count and Hillary would try to maneuver the supers to usurp him at the convention.

The shoe being on the other foot now is most, most delicious.


Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
64. And they say...
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 04:06 PM
Apr 2016

"Shove it you asshat."

Let's see, constantly insult the party, it's member and it process...get millions FEWER votes...only win in caucus or "open" primaries....and continue to spread ring wing lies about a party leader.

Yeah, that'll work

LiberalFighter

(50,928 posts)
71. And when he talks to those automatic delegates...
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 04:22 PM
Apr 2016

They will remind him of what he has been saying about Democrats in the past and now.

From his own Press Release: Sanders to Democratic Party: Whose Side are We On?

The failure of Democratic leadership to send a clear message on where the party stands is why Republicans have grabbed control Congress and Statehouses. “The problem in my view is not that the Republicans are winning elections. It’s that Democrats are losing elections,” he said.

Sanders also faulted Democrats for not pushing election reforms that would increase voter turnout and help Democrats win elections. For example, he said, Democrats should get behind legislation he introduced in the Senate to register everyone to vote when they turn 18 years old. “The Democratic Party has got to be very clear. We need automatic voter registration.” In 2015, Oregon became the first state in the nation to require state agencies to automatically register voters when they get a new driver’s license or identification card.


They will remind him that he has campaigned and fundraised against Democrats. They will remind him that he is still identified as Independent regarding his re-election Senate campaign. They will remind him of why the university terminated his wife.
 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
43. She will win on the first ballot. No open convention.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 08:49 PM
Apr 2016

She will be SIGNIFICANTLY ahead in pledged delegates and barring the indictment fairy coming, there is no way Sanders flips enough Supers to win. And if he did, what does that say about his respect for democracy? He lost the popular vote. By a LOT.

Demsrule86

(68,576 posts)
46. Absolutely not true
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 08:59 PM
Apr 2016

Bernie can not win...she will be ahead in pledged delegates. She is ahead of him in polls for future primaries too. If he has not conceded by the convention, during the first ballot...Hillary is ahead...supers add on their votes...she wins...over and done. And at this point, Bernie will be escorted out no doubt and will be a pariah forever. My guess is he will concede after California. I don't see him taking it to the convention...he would be finished politically: he would have no committees or anything. By the way...it was much closer in 08 and the supers put Obama ahead...this is why the Democrats do not have contested conventions which is smart in my opinion. The supers vote for the person who win the pledged delegates, and Bernie can not catch up.

Demsrule86

(68,576 posts)
85. Details?
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 07:19 PM
Apr 2016

I have seen no posts detailing these Clinton abuses. I seems the only abuse Bernie endured was losing.

procon

(15,805 posts)
53. Another Epic Fail!
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 03:40 PM
Apr 2016

Failed Math 101 - check
Failed Civics - check
Failed USGov - check
Failed AmHist - check
Failed Current Events- check
Failed Social Networking - check
Failed Remedial Reading - check
Failed Reality - check
Failed Crystal Ball Gazing - check
Failed Tea Leaf Predictions - check
Failed Mind Reading- check
Failed Drug Test - check



Case closed.

Beacool

(30,247 posts)
59. Hang on to that last thread of hope, why don't you?
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 03:54 PM
Apr 2016

Of course the super delegates are going to deny the nomination to the candidate who outpaces Sanders in pledged delegates and even the popular vote. That's why Hillary is president today.

Yeah, that's bound to happen.



Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
65. Jesus on a French fry!
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 04:07 PM
Apr 2016

It's fucking over! The lights are turned off. The floor sweeper left an hour ago. The only one left at the party is the old guy with a lampshade on his head screaming "oligarchs!"

It's exhausting.

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
69. Thank god
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 04:15 PM
Apr 2016

Wait. I'll havei to ignore you too to not see your drivel. Damn. Well I don't ignore people because it is childish.

brooklynite

(94,571 posts)
61. Are you saying that 2008 was an "Open Convention"?
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 03:59 PM
Apr 2016

After the voting was done, everyone knew Obama had won the nomination. Nobody thought the superdelegates were going to change their minds.

2016 will be no different.

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
75. Clinton needs 35.6% of the remaining pledged delegates...
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 04:49 PM
Apr 2016

361 out of 1016, to win a majority of the pledged delegates.

And the candidate with the most pledged delegates will win the nomination.

Sid

Lil Missy

(17,865 posts)
77. And Bernie needs over 100%, with your Bernie Math
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 05:02 PM
Apr 2016

superdelegates count - they don't need your approval.

Maybe a new hobby would help.

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
80. This is 100% false. Whoever reaches 2383 pledged and superdelegates wins. She needs 218 delegates.
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 05:16 PM
Apr 2016

There is no difference between pledged delegates and superdelegates when it comes to voting. Whoever has enough pledged and superdelegates to equal 2383 or more wins.

This argument that not getting enough pledged delegates mean a contested election is a false argument. It has no relationship to reality. It is demonstrably false.

Currently, Clinton has 2165 according to the AP. (Pledged plus superdelegates) Sanders has 1357 (Pledged plus superdelegates)

One of them will have a total of pledged plus superdelegates equalling 2383 or more. That will be the winner.

Democratic primaries award delegates proportionally. Clinton needs 218 delegates. They can be pledged rn superdelegates, because they all count in the first vote.

Sanders needs 708 more pledged and super delegates to win.

Please stop posting this false information.

For your information, in 2008, 2117 delegates were needed to win. Obama only had 1,828½ pledged delegates.
His 478 superdelegates brought him the victory. Notice that there was no contested convention because he did not have to win by pledged delegates.

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