For many decades the U.S. has vacillated between interventionism and isolationism, so the stark contrast between George W. Bush’s brash ‘engagement’ with the world versus Barack Obama’s ‘withdrawal’ from the world is not outside the historical norm. Given that the U.S. has now been in an isolationist mode for almost for 8 years, what might the presidency of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump imply for the coming 4 years in the area of foreign policy? The short answer is that there is likely to be less difference between the two than one might expect, particularly given that they would face similar obstacles....


Impact on the Global Economy

Since politics do not function in isolation from economics, what would the impact of either as president be on the global economy? While global stock markets would no doubt prefer the status quo predictability that would come with a Clinton presidency, in reality, the occupant of the White House makes less difference to the global economy than the composition of the Congress. Since Clinton is far likelier not to want to rock the boat economically, those who favor more of the same would welcome a Clinton presidency. But would that be smart in the longer term? In the U.S., and globally, we are now well overdue for another recession. More of the same isn’t what would be needed to manage that effectively, particularly given that the U.S. does not have the same range of fiscal and monetary weapons to throw at the problem next time around....


Making China Great Again

Of the many topics facing the U.S. in the medium to long-term, China’s rise poses the greatest challenge to America on a wide range of issues, ranging from economic competitiveness, to international influence, to dominance in business. It seems clear that Clinton would be China’s preferred choice, given her presumed intention not to challenge China too strongly while maintaining the status quo, but would that be preferable to Trump’s approach?


...High Stakes

American voters should think beyond their wallets, short-termism, and what ‘feels’ good when they enter the voting booth in November. There is more at stake in this election than any in a generation. The U.S. and the world face unprecedented problems, some of which did not have the reach and severity that they do today, such as the man-made risks of climate change, cyber risk, and terrorism. The same is true for some of the world’s most intractable foreign policy challenges. While both Clinton and Trump face the same set of constraints, how they choose to tackle these challenges is sure to have long lasting implications....