2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLet's spell it out for Bernie fans: HRC has won 12.2 miln votes, Trump: 10.1 miln, Bernie: 9.1 miln
Now, these are the vote totals for the primaries and caucuses, so it should be evident that this includes none of Bernie voters in the Hillary Clinton total. Thus, stay with me now Bernie fans, Hillary's vote total includes no independents who voted for Bernie or who just stayed home.
So, you've got Clinton with 12,272,900 votes so far.
.... and Donnie Trump with 10,116,714 votes so far.
That's percentage difference of 9.6%.
Note that Clinton's vote total exceeds Trump's by over 2 million votes ..... without any votes that may be from independents who voted for Bernie or who just didn't make it to the polls.
WE still have some more states to go, in particular California. But if the trend continues it looks like Clinton will get more votes than Trump when the primary's are all over. So one might make a prediction that in a head to head with Trump, Clinton would beat him without any of those people who voted for Bernie. Although, I would never say that most of those who voted for Bernie would refuse to vote for Clinton out of childish vindictiveness. I still think most people who are real Bernie supporters are grown-ups and would behave accordingly in the General Election.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)On the bright side, he's doing better than Kasich ... so there's that.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)How would you describe it to make it appear that Bernie's doing better than Hillary?
I suppose you could say something like "In the race for the Democratic nomination, Hillary is in NEXT-TO-LAST place!"
Hey! That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? (I mean, you know, on the face of it... without really thinking about what it literally means, it SOUNDS good, eh?)
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)doesn't include caucus states
jonestonesusa
(880 posts)I'm proud of his national effort to inspire people, especially young people, to work for positive change.
I've never earned 9 million votes through representing my ideas before audiences all over the country as the culmination of a long and distinguished public career. Have you?
I respect people who step up and work tirelessly and publicly for change, beyond internet grandstanding. Sanders has done that, and along with millions of other voters, I admire him for the effort.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)How many R votes have there been total?
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)I gave you a link to the spreadsheet in the OP.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)You're still wrong about most of the major issues facing our country.
edit: Not you personally OP. I just mean Hillary vs. Bernie on the issues.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)I applaud you for that.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)Watch this Van Jones video.
I support whoever the candidate is in November, but I fear we are thinking we have it made and we dont.
Please give this video to everybody you know.
Mike Nelson
(9,959 posts)...the biggest crowds where it counts.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)--imm
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)He'll still be in the Senate, and if he doesn't ruin his reputation with the electorate by trying to drag the party into the mud, he should remain a leading voice for progressivism. His kind, of course.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)the GE will include the Independents. You know, the ones that vote for Bernie, the ones that DWS says she doesn't care about. The ones that won't be voting for CLinton...
Unless you're planning on election 'problems' in November that eliminate the Independents - she looses.
Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #7)
Post removed
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Because people enjoy sticking forks in their eyes and voting for candidates who represent the exact opposite of the candidate they previously supported.
CentralCoaster
(1,163 posts)Enjoy your drama, Bill USA.
rock on.
doc03
(35,346 posts)Republican votes were split among 17 people.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Instead of lining the pockets of media conglomerates and ad agencies.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Why don't you spend your money as you see fit and mind your own fucking business?
tonedevil
(3,022 posts)that the people who are in favor of a specific political candidate are supporters not fans you can sit at the adult table. Until then have fun squishing your spaghetti through your filthy little hands.
GummyBearz
(2,931 posts)It doesn't go by the nation wide popular vote
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)40% of polled Republcans say they won't support Trump.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Nobody asked you to spell out jack fucking shit, did they.
JonathanRackham
(1,604 posts)The FBI has to shit or git. That is an issue sitting on the minds of many Bernie supporters. Perhaps if she named a VP that might entice some.
hamsterjill
(15,222 posts)n/t
JonathanRackham
(1,604 posts)Big fingers small phone.
hamsterjill
(15,222 posts)Thank you for the clarification.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Hillary is winning, and he is LOSING to Trump.
So his claims are beyond ridiculous!
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)you can't compare Hillary's showing in a two person race with The Donald's in a clown car.
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)There is no reason to post OPs that intentionally antagonize Bernie supporters.
If you want to antagonize Bernie supporters who post insane rants, or create "new math" ... do so. Many of them are begging for it.
But there is no reason to be intentionally be mean to all Bernie supporters in an OP like this.
The loud, ranting, folks ... sure ... take them on. But there is no reason for Hillary supporters to create the fight. She's already won. Its over.
Botany
(70,516 posts)What is wrong w/you?
Why are you trying to be d-bag? HRC is gonna win the nomination and
now is the time to make nice.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)randr
(12,412 posts)primary numbers to the final general election numbers. I suspect they do not reflect as clear a picture as the raw data of our current condition. It is heartwarming and a great relief to think that these balances will hold through the GE but I fear that is a fantasy.
A snap shot of any moment in history only reminds me of the blind men and the elephant tale.
dubyadiprecession
(5,714 posts)Trying to disenfranchising the majority of Democratic party voters that didn't vote for him, is pathetic.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)once people get to know Bernie...uh...nevermind.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)the Republican vote total cast in the primaries is 25,044,998 vs the Democratic which is total 21,102,510
but don't let math bother you
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)25 million x .6 = 15.0 million. Does that spell it out for ya?
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)I don't like how the numbers come out but they are what they are a Trump or Cruz presidency is scary
http://www.weaselzippers.us/268826-poll-40-of-republicans-will-not-vote-for-trump-in-november-19-would-rather-vote-for-clinton/
well at least I understand why you didn't include a link
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Trump got that many votes, given the kind of platform he's running on. Additionally, he really doesn't do anything but spread hate and stoke the flames of racism. What he's running on makes little to no sense.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Hello, Bill USA!
In your opening post, you write the following:
So one might make a prediction that in a head to head with Trump, Clinton would beat him without any of those people who voted for Bernie.
Are you saying that everyone who participated voting in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries, and voted for Bernie Sanders, should refrain from voting for a general-election nominee Hillary Clinton?
Recoverin_Republican
(218 posts)from the OP (my own emphasis):
to me that does not sound like he's telling anybody what they should do. .. Just my take on it.
jmousso75
(71 posts)First of all, we are not idiots.
Secondly, I guess Hillary won't need any of those 9.1 million votes to get elected. She won't get mine.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Game over.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Math.
Don't expect a lot of crossover. She is not liked by many.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Even LESS liked than Hillary Clinton.
clg311
(119 posts)Independent voters have a limited voice and Sergeant Schulz want's to keep it that way.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Technically, the count is accurate, but
In reality the claim that Clinton is leading the votes is another Hillary distortion, a reflection of the dishonesty that leads to her being highly distrusted by most voters. But none of the mainstream media have called her on this distortion.
For example, in Washington state, where there are, according to the 2015 census numbers, about 7.17 million people, here are the numbers, Sanders won 19,159 votes for 72.7%. Clinton won 7,140 votes for 27.1%. Based on those numbers, Bernie Sanders gets a 12,000 voter advantage in Hillary's way of counting. Really? 12,000 voters are all the credit Bernie gets for winning a state with over seven million people? (actually, over 250,000 participated in the caucuses. Still those numbers don't reflect the size of the state's population.)
If you do the math on all the caucus states, Bernie's wins could easily represent populations that exceed Hillary's 2.5 million votes, not even including the primary state votes he won. It is insulting to the people of Washington to suggest that they be counted based on the 26,000 who voted in the caucuses.
Because Minnesota is a caucus state, Bernie only gets an advantage of 45,000 when it should be hundreds of thousands. The same is true in Kansas, where he only gets credit for 14,000 advantage, when it should be at least 80,000. Colorado would give him a 23,000 advantage based on caucuses, but he should get at least a 120,000 advantage based on population.
This applies to the following caucus states that Bernie won, Washington, Utah, Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, Nebraska, Maine, Idaho, Alaska, and Hawaii, representing about 32 million people.
Bernie won many of these by 60, 70, even 80%. Of course some are primarily conservative, which has an effect on the numbers. Let's say that Democratic leaning voters represented 45%, which would be 14.4 million. If Bernie won with an average of 60 to 40% that would be a 20% difference, or 2.9 million. Of course voter turnout has to be figured in.
Let's compare Massachusetts with Minnesota. MA has about 6.7 million people. Minnesota has about 20% less, with 5.5 million. Hillary won MA by a 1.4% margin. Bernie won MN by a 23.4% margin. Hillary gets 17,000 margin for her miniscule margin win. Bernie, with a margin thats gets 44,000. A proportional accounting, for a state that large would give him close to 750,000, or 700,000 more. The same kind of math applies to all the caucus states mentioned above.
The truth is that using popular vote numbers is a deceptive way to talk about comparing campaigns. An honest candidate would not attempt to do so. Clinton embraces it.
From: http://www.opednews.com/articles/Hillary-s-Disingenuous-Cla-by-Rob-Kall-2016-Presidential-Primary-Candidates_Hillary-Clinton-160401-967.html
TM99
(8,352 posts)and it really shuts down these yahoo's!
It is 'math' until the real 'math' is revealed and then it is bluster, bullshit, and insults.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Recoverin_Republican
(218 posts)campaign. From what I can tell, the numbers mentioned in the OP are from the spreadsheet to which a link was provided.
Now, if you use the link that was provided in the OP and looked at the spreadsheet you would see that for the Washington case you cited, the spreadsheet shows:
Clinton getting 7,136 votes
Sanders getting 19,135 votes .... FairVote indicates on the spreadsheet that the Spreadsheet was "Updated by FairVote, April 27, 2016".
That looks pretty close to the figures quoted by you from OPednews. Actually, the numbers mentioned in the OPEdNews article were from the RealClear Politics site. IS OpEdnews saying these are the numbers Hillary's campaign came up with?? I'm confused, is Hillary responsible for numbers computed by RealClear Politics?
Actually, it appears that OpEdnews is doing something quite different than just counting votes. they are extrapolating the vote proportions to the whole population of the state(?!)
from the article you referenced (my own emphasis):
... "population"?? Not registered voters? Not voters registered Democrats? They are comparing population to votes cast in the primaries?????
It seems if there is a question as to methodology, Opednews has some explaining to do if they are using population numbers for estimating votes cast in an election!
Anyway, as I noted above, the numbers on the spreadsheet (that the OP provides a link to) are gathered by FairVote.com and note that, unless I'm wrong, there is no extrapolating being done there. They appear to be just recording and adding up votes cast...
from the spreadsheet: the heading over the columns with the vote totals: "TOTAL VOTES CAST FOR ALL CANDIDATES"
Either I am all mixed up or the numbers are just vote totals on the spreadsheet. And it appears that the numbers quoted by OpEdnews from RealClear Politics are vote totals too.
Actually, when I checked REalClear Politics vote totals, they have been updated and now show Clinton at: 12,268,316 and Sanders: 9,110,739 .. for a difference of ....3,157,577.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Outrageous!
2 different methods, one requires fewer actual voters.
I would imagine that the fairer way to measure this would be to extrapolate the number of people represented, than the total number of voters.
Beowulf
(761 posts)F-B-I I-N-V-E-S-T-I-G-A-T-I-O-N
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I thought they only reported county delegates, not actual votes.
Urchin
(248 posts)basselope
(2,565 posts)Dems to Win
(2,161 posts)Clinton got 18 million votes in 2008, assume she'll do the same this time. That still tells us nothing, really, about her ability to get 70 million votes in the fall.
It's really poor logic to look at the primary numbers and say that Hillary can beat Trump without any help from Bernie supporters.