2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFacts are facts.
After all that $$$ and energy spent on Indiana, Bernie as of this point has gained 6 delegates on Hillary.
In the pledged (not super) delegate count, she still leads by over 300.
Bernie may gain some 30,000 votes on her but she still leads by about 3 million.
Other than Bernie gaining a bit of momentum, this looks like mathematically a win for Hillary.
However, Bernie will win the open primaries to come (e.g., Oregon) and Hillary will win the closed ones. Consider that tonight, about 22% of the voters were independents, according to exit polling. Again the independents carried the day for Bernie.
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)dchill
(38,505 posts)kstewart33
(6,551 posts)Vote estimate using math from WP figures. Googled for current total pledged delegate counts.
dchill
(38,505 posts)K.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)Simple math based on 22% of voters were independents.
596,309 in so far divided by 93% votes in = ~ 641000 votes. * 22% independents from CNN exit poll = 141000 votes * 70% that Bernie won of independents = 99000 votes. Remainder when to Hillary = 42000
That 57,000 votes is how Bernie won (by about 35000 votes)
dchill
(38,505 posts)And how Hillary would lose.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)But you know that.
cali
(114,904 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)The guy who talked about "blood coming out of her wherever" and joked with Howard Stern about "nailing" Princess Diana?
How about black voters? Lots of them will support Trump? Latinos? It takes a lot more to win the presidency these days than to attract the votes of white men.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)10 of the contests remaining have a Democratic primary or caucus that is:
-- Completely open to all registered voters.
-- Open to registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
-- Open only to registered Democrats, but voter can change on the same day.
Closed (157 Delegates)
----------------------------
05/07 --Guam -- 7 Delegates (Primary; Deadline unknown)
05/17 -- KY -- 55 Delegates (Primary; Deadline to change 12/31/15)
05/17 -- OR -- 61 Delegates (Primary; Deadline to change 04/26/16)
06/07 -- NM -- 34 Delegates (Primary; Deadline to change 05/10/16)
Open or Semi-Closed (859 Delegates)
------------------------------------------
05/03 -- IN -- 83 Delegates (Primary; Open)
05/10--- WV -- 29 Delegates (Primary; Dem or Unaffiliated)
06/04 -- Vir Is -- 7 Delegates (Caucuses; Open)
06/05 -- PR -- 60 Delegates (Primary; Open)
06/07 -- CA -- 475 Delegates (Primary; Dem or Unaffiliated)
06/07 -- MT -- 21 Delegates (Primary; Open)
06/07 -- NJ -- 126 Delegates (Primary; Dem or Chg election day)
06/07 -- ND -- 18 Delegates (Caucuses; Open)
06/07 -- SD -- 20 Delegates (Primary; Dem or Unaffiliated)
06/14 -- DC -- 20 Delegates (Primary; Dem or Chg election day)
Now, if you'd like, calculate the winning percentages that Bernie needs in every open primary to catch Hillary - in delegates and popular vote.
Five of those open primaries/caucuses have fewer than 25 delegates. One has 29. Let's say that Bernie gains 2 or 3 each. That's a max of 18 delegates for six primaries/caucuses. Hillary will likely gain that many with her closed races. The real race is California. However, no one is favored yet.
So Hillary wins. It doesn't matter by how much, does it? She wins.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Edit nvm found it
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)And when she is the nominee, the DEM party will unite around her to stop Trump.
But there is nothing wrong with Bernie staying in until an official nominee is decided.
Under the current rules system, no official nominee has been determined yet, so Bernie, or any other DEM in his position, should stay in the race. Don't like the rules? Change them.