2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIt is interesting so many here believe Trump will beat Clinton, but Conservatives think otherwise.
Conservative noise today suggests they believe Trump has no path to victory in the GE. Yet many posters here, of recent weeks, think the opposite. That against Trump, Hillary has no path to victory.
What's up with that?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)TheBlackAdder
(28,209 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)watch that please where he discusses the risks of a Drumpf win.
And the other group is the ones who WANT Drumpf to win, either because they are GOP and pretending otherwise, or so angry that Bernie lost they will want to see Drumpf win so they can say "Told you so"
Lots of those folks, sadly.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)And yes there will be the "I told you so" crowd.
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)JSup
(740 posts)...these people actually want something awful to happen so they can be.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)They believe that HRC will be indicted AFTER the convention, and that Biden/Warren will be the ticket after HRC is forced to step aside. And they are scared spitless of a Biden/Warren ticket.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)the business leg will join the dems to some extent. After all, it is a business friendly, chanber of commerce party now, But there are many rank and file Republicans who will vote for Trump, and many newly minted voters that do not enter any polling calculation as well.
The business types though, are having a serous case of OH MY GOD IT CANNOT BE HAPPENING TO OUR PARTY!!!!! HHHHEEELLLPPPPP!
Like democrats, not all republicans belong to a single party.
I said my piece about Trump months ago. People poopoed it, so whatever.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)apnu
(8,758 posts)NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)by significant margins. Of course they would root for Hillary.
apnu
(8,758 posts)National polls are meaningless at every stage of the Presidential election process. Electoral Votes count and they're awarded by states, therefore state polling is the only polling that's of any use.
So Where is Bernie vs Trump in OH, PA, and FL? Versus Hillary against Trump in those same states?
Those are the states that will come to determine the GOP's path to victory, most of their bedrock states have little EV value, compared to Democratic strong holds like CA, NY and IL. The GOP has Texas, probably.
Second point: They aren't rooting for Hillary, if you actually care to look at their statements today. They don't believe Trump can beat Hillary and are resigning to defeat and despair, how do you figure they're rooting for Hillary?
PufPuf23
(8,793 posts)apnu
(8,758 posts)All are going to show up for whomever is not Trump on the Dem ticket. Of the Bernie people I personally know, all are willing to pull for Hillary in the GE.
Its a trope to say each election is a lesser of two evils, but this is the first election I've been eligible to vote in ('92 was my first one) where that's been true. All other times I've heard it, it was something of a joke. W turned out to be evil, but at the time, in 2000, few thought him so.
DefenseLawyer
(11,101 posts)apnu
(8,758 posts)Right now everybody is pretty emotional.
Conservatives and Republicans coming to grips with Trump as a reality, plus the drop out of Cruz and Kasich. Some are going through the stages of denial, others are elated.
For Liberals and progressives, there's the emotional roller coaster that is this Bernie vs Clinton contest, which is highly emotional for everybody. Much of it is built on negative emotions of fear and anxiety, plus the added fuel that is fear and anxiety of Trump.
Unless I see hard numbers, not emotional statements, I'm not going to jump on the bandwagon of "could".
onenote
(42,715 posts)I suppose one can't rule out the notion that Trump "could" beat Clinton. But by the same token one can't rule out the notion that Trump "could" beat Bernie too.
The reality, however, is that the electorate that will be deciding whether Trump wins won't be made up just of angry white men and their adoring, brainwashed wives. It will include significant numbers of independently minded women, racial and religious minorities, and other groups who recognize the threat Trump poses.
The real question is whether the supporters of the repub candidates that Trump insulted and belittled repeatedly during the campaign put all that aside and "unite" behind the guy that their preferred candidate told them was unqualified to be president. And whether those that supported whichever Democrat doesn't end up with the nomination (in all likelihood Sanders) put aside whatever hurt feelings they might have (based on slights that barely register compared to the things Trump and his opponents said about each other) to do what they can so they can answer, honestly and with a clear conscience, the question "Did you do everything you could to prevent Trump from becoming president"?
BootinUp
(47,165 posts)into a pretzel to justify ones beliefs.
Locrian
(4,522 posts)that thought he could never get the R nomination? LOL
The ones that live in the bubble and have zero idea of the growing disgust with the status quo?
I think the general state of confusion and disarray in the media and both parties is very telling: they can't figure out where either party is going. The R have lost the religious side of the platform, and lost some of the business can do whatever they want. The D have lost the youth vote, and are struggling to not appear too cozy with the powers that be - and seem to not be able to turn to the left even with Bernies pull.
I still think HRC wins this (while I definitely like Bernie better, I will be voting for 'her') but do not underestimate the chaotic nature of this. There are still several wild cards still in the deck, and it's going to be Mr Toad's Wild Ride until the election in Nov.
apnu
(8,758 posts)Vinca
(50,279 posts)If we assume Hillary will win, we do so at our peril.
apnu
(8,758 posts)As usual in American politics, the main driver getting voters to the polls will be fear. Both sides will play it.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As the Washington Post pointed out, the 19 states (plus DC) that have been won by the Democratic candidate in each of the last 6 presidential elections account for 242 electoral college votes. Just 28 more and it's a done deal.
The US has become increasingly diverse, and that contributes to the Democratic candidate having a much easier path to 270.
drray23
(7,634 posts)Coincidently, Hillary is currently double digit favorite oer trump in Floruda which happens to carry 29 ev. That would put her at 271 right there not counting other states where she will likely win as well.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Those 19 states (plus DC) don't include New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, etc.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Ash_F
(5,861 posts)I think many consider Trump a threat. As do I.
In the Midwest, with his anti-trade stance, we have seen higher Republican turnout this cycle than Democratic. Much higher.
At least with Sanders, Trump can not differentiate as starkly on trade as with Clinton.
The same goes with the Iraq war which is very unpopular all over the country.
There is also the chance she could be charged in the run up to the GE. Not worth the risk.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)pressbox69
(2,252 posts)never, never, never.
Marr
(20,317 posts)Trump doesn't stand a chance against her. He most certainly does, and personally, I think he has a better than even chance of beating her.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Marr
(20,317 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It's far more likely that Clinton will win in a landslide.