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apnu

(8,758 posts)
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:18 PM May 2016

It is interesting so many here believe Trump will beat Clinton, but Conservatives think otherwise.

Conservative noise today suggests they believe Trump has no path to victory in the GE. Yet many posters here, of recent weeks, think the opposite. That against Trump, Hillary has no path to victory.

What's up with that?

36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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It is interesting so many here believe Trump will beat Clinton, but Conservatives think otherwise. (Original Post) apnu May 2016 OP
Motivated thinking. DemocratSinceBirth May 2016 #1
I don't put anything past the GOP, they always manage to pull their shit together come election day. TheBlackAdder May 2016 #2
It's not "interesting" it's just wishful thinking. Some here would rather Trump win. nt Jitter65 May 2016 #3
Two groups. The group I am in with Van Jones, Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #4
That Van Jones video was powerful stuff NWCorona May 2016 #7
They will anger me more than Drumpf republicans, because they allegedly know better. Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #8
These aren't just "told you so"s... JSup May 2016 #9
Conservatives think that HRC will be indicted. grasswire May 2016 #5
Depends what consservatives nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #6
What's the deal with airline peanuts? Capt. Obvious May 2016 #10
Maybe Trump and Clinton are friends? Baobab May 2016 #11
This argument makes no sense. (nt) apnu May 2016 #13
Polls show Hillary much weaker against Trump than Bernie NorthCarolina May 2016 #12
Which polls? National polls or state polls? apnu May 2016 #14
Both Democrats and GOP are frightening voters to the polls. eom PufPuf23 May 2016 #15
Trump certainly frightens every liberal and progressive I know. apnu May 2016 #19
That fact that Trump "could" beat Clinton should be enough to give us pause. n/t DefenseLawyer May 2016 #16
I think its too early to project that. apnu May 2016 #21
Based on the fact that he unexpectedly beat everyone in the repub field onenote May 2016 #29
There must be some saying that eludes me now about twisting logic BootinUp May 2016 #17
those same "insiders" Locrian May 2016 #18
This is a year of upheaval. It will be hard to predict, that's for sure. (nt) apnu May 2016 #22
Conservatives thought he'd never win the primary. Vinca May 2016 #20
Assumptions are bad, especially this year. The GOTV drive will be critical. apnu May 2016 #24
Many, regardless of political affiliation, understand that getting to 270 is easier for the Democrat Garrett78 May 2016 #23
absolutely drray23 May 2016 #28
Yeah, the smart money is on a landslide victory for Clinton. Garrett78 May 2016 #31
It's because the each have such high unfavorability numbers. morningfog May 2016 #25
I have not seen anyone say Clinton has no path to victory Ash_F May 2016 #26
PS - If Trump takes the Midwest he wins. Ash_F May 2016 #27
Never Trump pressbox69 May 2016 #30
What's interesting is that her fan club is so monumentally out of touch, that they insist Marr May 2016 #32
Tell me about Sanders "fan club". seabeyond May 2016 #34
Why? We're talking about Hillary's electoral chances. /nt Marr May 2016 #36
You're free to believe that, but most disagree. Garrett78 May 2016 #35
It is Democrats to lose. I think they handed it to us, well regardless who it was. Nt seabeyond May 2016 #33

Jackie Wilson Said

(4,176 posts)
4. Two groups. The group I am in with Van Jones,
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:22 PM
May 2016
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7800368

watch that please where he discusses the risks of a Drumpf win.

And the other group is the ones who WANT Drumpf to win, either because they are GOP and pretending otherwise, or so angry that Bernie lost they will want to see Drumpf win so they can say "Told you so"

Lots of those folks, sadly.

JSup

(740 posts)
9. These aren't just "told you so"s...
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:28 PM
May 2016

...these people actually want something awful to happen so they can be.

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
5. Conservatives think that HRC will be indicted.
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:23 PM
May 2016

They believe that HRC will be indicted AFTER the convention, and that Biden/Warren will be the ticket after HRC is forced to step aside. And they are scared spitless of a Biden/Warren ticket.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
6. Depends what consservatives
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:23 PM
May 2016

the business leg will join the dems to some extent. After all, it is a business friendly, chanber of commerce party now, But there are many rank and file Republicans who will vote for Trump, and many newly minted voters that do not enter any polling calculation as well.

The business types though, are having a serous case of OH MY GOD IT CANNOT BE HAPPENING TO OUR PARTY!!!!! HHHHEEELLLPPPPP!

Like democrats, not all republicans belong to a single party.

I said my piece about Trump months ago. People poopoed it, so whatever.

 

NorthCarolina

(11,197 posts)
12. Polls show Hillary much weaker against Trump than Bernie
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:36 PM
May 2016

by significant margins. Of course they would root for Hillary.

apnu

(8,758 posts)
14. Which polls? National polls or state polls?
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:43 PM
May 2016

National polls are meaningless at every stage of the Presidential election process. Electoral Votes count and they're awarded by states, therefore state polling is the only polling that's of any use.

So Where is Bernie vs Trump in OH, PA, and FL? Versus Hillary against Trump in those same states?

Those are the states that will come to determine the GOP's path to victory, most of their bedrock states have little EV value, compared to Democratic strong holds like CA, NY and IL. The GOP has Texas, probably.

Second point: They aren't rooting for Hillary, if you actually care to look at their statements today. They don't believe Trump can beat Hillary and are resigning to defeat and despair, how do you figure they're rooting for Hillary?

apnu

(8,758 posts)
19. Trump certainly frightens every liberal and progressive I know.
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:58 PM
May 2016

All are going to show up for whomever is not Trump on the Dem ticket. Of the Bernie people I personally know, all are willing to pull for Hillary in the GE.

Its a trope to say each election is a lesser of two evils, but this is the first election I've been eligible to vote in ('92 was my first one) where that's been true. All other times I've heard it, it was something of a joke. W turned out to be evil, but at the time, in 2000, few thought him so.

apnu

(8,758 posts)
21. I think its too early to project that.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:03 PM
May 2016

Right now everybody is pretty emotional.

Conservatives and Republicans coming to grips with Trump as a reality, plus the drop out of Cruz and Kasich. Some are going through the stages of denial, others are elated.

For Liberals and progressives, there's the emotional roller coaster that is this Bernie vs Clinton contest, which is highly emotional for everybody. Much of it is built on negative emotions of fear and anxiety, plus the added fuel that is fear and anxiety of Trump.

Unless I see hard numbers, not emotional statements, I'm not going to jump on the bandwagon of "could".

onenote

(42,715 posts)
29. Based on the fact that he unexpectedly beat everyone in the repub field
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:45 PM
May 2016

I suppose one can't rule out the notion that Trump "could" beat Clinton. But by the same token one can't rule out the notion that Trump "could" beat Bernie too.

The reality, however, is that the electorate that will be deciding whether Trump wins won't be made up just of angry white men and their adoring, brainwashed wives. It will include significant numbers of independently minded women, racial and religious minorities, and other groups who recognize the threat Trump poses.

The real question is whether the supporters of the repub candidates that Trump insulted and belittled repeatedly during the campaign put all that aside and "unite" behind the guy that their preferred candidate told them was unqualified to be president. And whether those that supported whichever Democrat doesn't end up with the nomination (in all likelihood Sanders) put aside whatever hurt feelings they might have (based on slights that barely register compared to the things Trump and his opponents said about each other) to do what they can so they can answer, honestly and with a clear conscience, the question "Did you do everything you could to prevent Trump from becoming president"?

BootinUp

(47,165 posts)
17. There must be some saying that eludes me now about twisting logic
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:56 PM
May 2016

into a pretzel to justify ones beliefs.

Locrian

(4,522 posts)
18. those same "insiders"
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:56 PM
May 2016

that thought he could never get the R nomination? LOL
The ones that live in the bubble and have zero idea of the growing disgust with the status quo?

I think the general state of confusion and disarray in the media and both parties is very telling: they can't figure out where either party is going. The R have lost the religious side of the platform, and lost some of the business can do whatever they want. The D have lost the youth vote, and are struggling to not appear too cozy with the powers that be - and seem to not be able to turn to the left even with Bernies pull.

I still think HRC wins this (while I definitely like Bernie better, I will be voting for 'her') but do not underestimate the chaotic nature of this. There are still several wild cards still in the deck, and it's going to be Mr Toad's Wild Ride until the election in Nov.






Vinca

(50,279 posts)
20. Conservatives thought he'd never win the primary.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:01 PM
May 2016

If we assume Hillary will win, we do so at our peril.

apnu

(8,758 posts)
24. Assumptions are bad, especially this year. The GOTV drive will be critical.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:24 PM
May 2016

As usual in American politics, the main driver getting voters to the polls will be fear. Both sides will play it.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
23. Many, regardless of political affiliation, understand that getting to 270 is easier for the Democrat
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:24 PM
May 2016

As the Washington Post pointed out, the 19 states (plus DC) that have been won by the Democratic candidate in each of the last 6 presidential elections account for 242 electoral college votes. Just 28 more and it's a done deal.

The US has become increasingly diverse, and that contributes to the Democratic candidate having a much easier path to 270.

drray23

(7,634 posts)
28. absolutely
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:37 PM
May 2016

Coincidently, Hillary is currently double digit favorite oer trump in Floruda which happens to carry 29 ev. That would put her at 271 right there not counting other states where she will likely win as well.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
31. Yeah, the smart money is on a landslide victory for Clinton.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:51 PM
May 2016

Those 19 states (plus DC) don't include New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, etc.

Ash_F

(5,861 posts)
26. I have not seen anyone say Clinton has no path to victory
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:31 PM
May 2016

I think many consider Trump a threat. As do I.

In the Midwest, with his anti-trade stance, we have seen higher Republican turnout this cycle than Democratic. Much higher.

At least with Sanders, Trump can not differentiate as starkly on trade as with Clinton.

The same goes with the Iraq war which is very unpopular all over the country.

There is also the chance she could be charged in the run up to the GE. Not worth the risk.

 

Marr

(20,317 posts)
32. What's interesting is that her fan club is so monumentally out of touch, that they insist
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:52 PM
May 2016

Trump doesn't stand a chance against her. He most certainly does, and personally, I think he has a better than even chance of beating her.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
35. You're free to believe that, but most disagree.
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:06 PM
May 2016

It's far more likely that Clinton will win in a landslide.

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