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kstewart33

(6,551 posts)
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:05 AM May 2016

Game over?

Politico:

There’s one more reason for Bernie Sanders focus his energy on winning over super delegates — it's now mathematically impossible for him to reach the magic number for the Democratic nomination by winning the remaining pledged delegates alone.

Here's how it works: After winning Indiana, Sanders has 1,399 pledged delegates and superdelegates to his name, according to the Associated Press' count. That means he needs 984 more to reach the threshold of 2,383 needed to win.

The remaining contests, however — Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia — only have 933 pledged delegates to offer.

So even if Sanders were to win 100 percent of the pledged delegates in each of those states, he wouldn't make it past the mark.

Hence his efforts to win over superdelegates, the party leaders and elites who can choose their candidate regardless of how their states vote. That strategy is a long shot at best for Sanders: of the 719 super delegates, Clinton leads 520 to 39.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/math-says-bernie-sanders-is-finished-222775
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HumanityExperiment

(1,442 posts)
15. Proportional voting trends...
Thu May 5, 2016, 12:20 PM
May 2016

based upon the voting trends of the past primary states, she won't reach the # required to earn nomination

So they BOTH would require SDs to earn nomination..

Funny how MSM misses out reporting on that

 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
2. Sanders and his supporters are playing the risky game of "If he can't be the president,
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:12 AM
May 2016

then they won't allow Hillary to be president either IMO. Trump is receiving help on the Left unlike anything I've seen before.

 

AgerolanAmerican

(1,000 posts)
3. This is 1968 part 2
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:18 AM
May 2016

the elites and the base have diverged to a conflict point

the convention is sure going to be interesting

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
14. Right. Some deal will be made, they'll agree to
Thu May 5, 2016, 12:17 PM
May 2016

something he wants, not huge since his leverage isn't that great, but enough to make him feel pushing further gained something of worth. Then they'll all make an announcement.

Then, because he wants to defeat Trump but is proudly not one of them, I predict he'll be both helpful and a further nuisance (from their point of view, not his of course) through the rest of the campaign.

I was interested recently when a neighbor's relative's something, a member of a socialist party whose name won't come, badmouthed Bernie as really just a Democrat. Such an insult! In any case, apparently they disagree that he even qualifies as a Social Democrat, much less a Democratic Socialist, much less a Socialst.

Certainly couldn't argue with her when he has voted with the Dem caucus over 95% of the time for a quarter century. Otoh, Bernie has been denouncing Democrats and badmouthing liberals for far longer than that, so seems just sensible, and polite, to take his word on the matter.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
13. A riot is not going to help Sanders
Thu May 5, 2016, 12:03 PM
May 2016

No one should even want something like that to happen. Bullying your way to the nomination is undemocratic and a third world tactic.

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
4. Democracy isn't a game to most of us
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:19 AM
May 2016

Fracking kills people as do illegal wars and lack of single payer healthcare.

Really nothing to laugh at.

WDIM

(1,662 posts)
8. Neither Candidate will Win without Supers
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:32 AM
May 2016

The establishment will make their pick and status quo quid pro quo will continue.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
9. Maybe, the DNC should extend a One Time, and one time, only Olive Branch ...
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:55 AM
May 2016

and suspend the super part of the Super-Delegates Rule, giving each Super one vote.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
10. Wow, buncha lies in that article.
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:58 AM
May 2016

Please examine the numbers. We are not talking about differential equations or calculus here. Simple arithmetic.

Delegates Clinton Sanders Delegate
Delegates+Supers 4763 2205 1401
Delegates Won 4051 1683 1362
Superdelegates (712) 522 39

Counting only elected delegates (i.e. the legitimate delegates):

To get a majority of PDs (2026):
Hillary needs 343 more PDs
Bernie needs 664 more PDs

There are 1006 PDs still available. Absolutely it is a narrow path for Bernie. But it is a complete lie to say it's "mathematically impossible" for Bernie. Not an opinion, not a perception. A complete, mathematical, provable LIE.

As for supers, Bernie has pointed out that the ones who choose to defy the popular vote in their states do so at their political peril. Most of them are also elected officials!

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
12. Unmitigated goddamned bullshit. People don't understand basic process or math.
Thu May 5, 2016, 11:59 AM
May 2016

The endgame is for Bernie to secure more pledged delegates. An incredible long shot, not really gonna happen prospect. But not mathematically impossible. He has not been mathematically eliminated from doing that.

In the event he were able to secure the majority of the pledged delegates, the supers would push him over, just as they would if HIllary is the pledged delegate winner. Because she will not his 2,383 through pledged delegates alone either. T

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