immigrants, and a lot of Republicans. That's a lot of people who are not likely to vote for him.

Thats how.

I am pretty sure he will skip them. he has nothing to gain in the debates, so he will skip them.

many of those people polled come from place like CA and NY. We already know she will win those states. It doesn't matter if she wins landslides in those states.

The real question will center on the rust belt.

How on earth would you know that?

It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win the popular vote by double digits and lose the Electoral College. The most it has diverged by was 3% and that was in the hotly contested 1876 Tilden-Hayes election.

and win the big cities. I think this will give her an edge in Ohio, Florida, PA, NC, VA

i don't buy the argument that republican turnout this cycle won't matter for the GE.

It doesn't matter if Hillary wins all the women in CA and NY, that doesn't matter for the electoral college.

What does matter is if Trump wins the entire rust belt.

Hillary has earned more votes than trumpy. Trumpy had half his party against him. He won't take the rust belt.

have you seen the vote count for hillary and trump in indiana for example?

And the majority of Bernie's supporters will vote for Hillary. And *some* of the anti-trumpy republic voters will too.

There are many Independents who only became Democrats to vote for Bernie. They will not vote for Hillary.

But those who supported Bernie will not come out for trumpy. Not in any significant number.

Hillary gets the Dem voters, both hers and Bernie's and those who only vote in the general. She'll get some of Bernie's independents. She'll get some of anti-trumpy republicans. She'll get republican women, and POC by large margins. Some anti-trumpy repubs will stay home or not vote for pres.

It all adds up to good numbers for Hillary.

figures in political history. I guess it will come down to how many people stay home on both sides. This is going to be one sad, pathetic election.

If I'm right about that, it won't bode well for Democrats.

And, a decent amount of non-crazy GOP men.

My mom's basically Teabagger neighbor, a woman, is voting for Hillary. Not against Trump, FOR Hillary, because she is excited about a woman being President. I know this woman, and was shocked about this.

But I think Hillary can win most of the rust belt, like Obama did.

Are you out of your mind?



She will lose Michigan for sure -- automotive manufacturing jobs and NAFTA.

We aren't stupid. We know what that did to our economy.

Or Him.




I'm just saying I think she will do fairly well in the rust belt.

edited

voted for trade deals that destroyed their jobs. There is no way Hillary gets the rust belt.

Folks seems to watch change from the status quo.

A 3.3% unemployment rate when Bill left office. Feel free to shit on George W. Bush when youre ready.

The only hope for Trump the martyr is to play the underdog card. Trump is the obvious vote for vile, small, angry minds.

“Hain't we got all the fools in town on our side? And hain't that a big enough majority in any town?”

― Mark Twain, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn

Hillary's strong wins were in Republican states.

She's gonna lose real bad.

Fortunately, we have a better candidate in Sanders.

Except Cali, yet.

MD, NY, DE, CT, VA, FL, OH. All won by double digits by her and all carried by Obama twice. Other than VA clinton won them at least once. Gore and Kerry won all of them except VA, FL, and OH.

Clinton obliterated Sanders in the critical swing stares of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Sanders' victories have come in reliably blue states and states that have never went blue in years, Indiana and the miracle in Michigan nothwithstanding.


BTW, county maps are misleading:

She has also won more swing states and she has won more of the biggest states with the most electoral votes.

She has also won the majority of open primaries, regardless of this lie that Sanders supporters keep repeating that somehow she can't win open primaries.

based on current polls

Larry Sabato, the Cook Report and several others already have Clinton ahead by comfortable margins based on state by state polls. Most even have all swing states (including North Carolina) leaning in Clinton's direction and even have a states like Georgia, Missouri and Arizona in play for Clinton. Here are 4 widely followed experts.

http://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/

indiana. let me know what you think then.

they also said trump would never be the nominee either. were they right then, or are they right now?

Democrats won it once in about a Century

from what i am seeing, Trump wins the entire rust belt. I don't see how Hillary wins the electoral college vote if she does lose the rust belt.

and you certainly haven't cited any polls that support your opinion. I have to assume you simply haven't investigated the facts which overwhelming reject your uninformed opinion

Not exactly a bellweather.

I wonder why you never jumped in to all the threads today showing the electoral map and discussing why experts see the landslide, including in states not previously in play for Dems, that you do not see.

Why start a new thread on the matter instead of jumping into all those others where charts and numbers were showing exactly the opposite of your perception in this thread?

Trump isn't even carrying Republicans right now.

Major Republican party leaders are abandoning him.

Even The former Republican Presidents won't vote for him or endorse him!

I think he needs to unite his party before looking at culling outside/Independent groups.

who cares if jeb or linsdey won't vote for trump, the people rejected both of those rejects anyway.

the people that voted for trump matter. and no pollster or election expert predicted trump would have won it all so soon.

paul ryan is meaningless, so is mittens. trump won in spite of them, not because of them.

labor, Hispanic voters than there are RW radio listeners.

If Trump scares you so much, perhaps you aren't meant for this battle.

....the people who think that are the extremists.

The majority of people are not. The general election folks, those who don't pay attention 24/7....who have daily lives with their families...

I believe the fact that the last 2 Republican Presidents will have nothing to do with Trump will resonate with the general Republican voter.

I believe the fact that the highest elected Republican, Paul Ryan, refuses to endorse Trump, will resonate with the general Republican voter.

I believe the fact that the last Republican Presidebtial Candidate (and VP candidate) will have nothing to do with Trump, will resonate with the general Republican voter.

And if you take ALL OF THIS IN IT'S TOTALITY.....it's quite a negative message.

she destroys Trump in every swing state, and even threatens to turn Utah, Georgia, and Mississippi blue. Every analysis so far says that Trump has the worst chances of any candidate in a generation. The map is an absolute disaster for him.

Trump won more votes than Hillary did in every single one of those states.

What is this fantasy that Hillary will turn the south blue in 2016? what kind of joke are the pollsters spinning here, none of them predicted trump winning in the south, but now they want us to believe Hillary will turn the red south blue?

Perhaps you're not made for this battle, eh?

I used Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball site, which is a bit more bullish, but Cook is a respected political publication and reflects the same trend. Again, as I mentioned below, it's early and stuff happens in elections, but realistically, based on every recent poll/projection/electoral map I've seen, it's the Republicans who have the uphill battle to win the White House. That being said, I do not want to give the impression that we can tolerate complacency, so I think it's important, regardless of whether you support Secretary Clinton or Senator Sanders, that we turn out as many progressives as possible to support the Democratic nominee as well as Democratic candidates down ballot.

I've seen others put up maps that show Hillary beating Trump worse than Obama beat McCain or Romney.

What's nice about those is that you can then argue about EVERY state.

Your approach is premised on an odd strawman claiming "people continue to tell me that voter turnout does not matter".

Why not toss that aside ... create a complete map, show Trump winning it, and then explain why you think that map is correct?

This nonsense of making up a strawman, and then asking others to refute it is lame.

Trump wins the entire rust belt. The entire south.

These maps pretend Hillary is going to win Ohio and Michigan, I don't see that happening.

Or does that not help your cause here?

And just to help prove my point ... no way Trump wins NC.

None. Especially after the GOP here passed HB2.

We could do this by STATE if you just put up your MAP.

I think you grossly overestimate Trump's appeal in Michigan and underestimate Clinton's

But I think you know that.

NC and FL will be blue, and, if you count VA as the South, which I don;t, that will be blue, and I bet GA will be, too.

The NE is hers, the MA is hers, the rust belt is almost totally hers, HI is hers, and most of the West. Even frigging UTAH is looking PURPLE. She will win in a landslide.

Nice try, though.

see his path as extremely narrow. It's nuts to think he'll win the entire rust belt. There is no evidence supporting your claims.

this isn't a normal cycle, and they have been wrong the entire year.
We are supposed to believe they are more accurate for the GE than they were before?

Early projections is Hillary landslide of huge proportions

We're still doing primaries on the Dem side.

Oh well, whatever

It's really over.

There are 19 states that have gone Democratic in every Presidential election since 1992. Those are safe Democratic states. Those 19 states total 242 electoral votes.

Hillary needs 29 additional electoral votes, on top of those 19 states, to win the Presidency. There are 29 EVs in Florida.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/republicans-have-a-massive-electoral-map-problem-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-donald-trump/

Sid

And, I am betting NC, too, and probably GA.

I don't know what basis you have for assuming that Trump will sweep the rust belt blah blah blah.

You want to see the path for victory for Clinton -- here you go.

Take the states that Obama won in 2012. Compare how Clinton did in those states compared to Trump (notwithstanding the high repub turnout). So far she gotten more votes -- sometimes doubling him up -- in states with a total of 195 electoral votes. Trump has only done better than Clinton in Ohio and New Hampshire (and only by 5000 votes in NH).

Now add to Clinton's total almost sure thing wins in NY (55), DC (3), NJ (14), ME (4) NM (5) OR (7) and she's over 270 and wins. And that's without figuring in Washington State (12).

It's also not factoring in that repub leaders are falling over themselves to announce they aren't supporting or voting for Trump -- Ohio will be back in play, especially with Sherrod Brown working for the ticket and other states will be as well.

... I don't think Bernie will do as well against the kinda firepower Trump brings to the table.

But if this is in GDP, then the topic is primaries so there must be some Bernie angle for you in all this and I'm not sure why because he's not going to be the nominee.

He just has to get 91 percent of the delegates in OR and KY. Should be a cakewalk, right?

about literally every single thing you've ever posted here? You're the worst possible ambassador for Bernie imaginable.

Your political analysis is invariably facile and based on soundbites at best; calling it half-assed would be overstating things by a third.

Trump has a very narrow focus of appeal; white, low-education, deeply-Christian voters, while the litany of groups he has pissed off to no end is enormous. He is doing poorly in battleground states, even poorer in states that he needs to flip from blue to red (Pennsylvania, Colorado, etc...), and is even polling behind Clinton in traditionally red states (Georgia).

He has no chance against any Democratic nominee this year. None.

Go to Sabato's crystal ball and see for yourself.

And this is the consenus view actually. As far as what I think, I think Trump is going to be humiliated. A general election is very very different from a Republican Primary.

then some. Arizona is a possibility. If Clinton picks Julian Castro Texas might even be in play because of large Hispanic turnout voting against Trump and for Castro.