What happened?

Thank you in advance.

He should have just put the poster on Ignore and be done with it. No need to remind him he or she did.

he would have to get 80 to 90 percent of the vote to get those 633 votes and it's not going to happen. I just hope he doesn't stroke out His face is getting redder and redder every day. I hope Jane is giving him his vitamins and what ever meds he may need to keep going. BTW I wonder where his health records are.

but I looked at the percentage of delegates to the percentage of popular vote and they usually corresponded pretty well, with few exceptions.

Hillary didn't release her health records either, just a letter from her physician.

None of this is going to switch much, if any support to Hillary, at least at this point, or to Bernie dropping out, at least at this point. All it does is annoy us, when we're not ignoring it.

But please carry on if you derive amusement from it and/or think you are accomplishing anything for your side.

Or the ones that breathlessly bring up pending indictments?
Or the ones that say that Secretary Clinton is a Republican?
Or the ones that say she is "More Conservative" than Trump?
Or the ones that keep telling us that Secretary Clinton is a "weak candidate"?

etc., etc.

Or is your being annoyed just partisan based?

It's that I kinda idly wonder what these kinds of posts think they're accomplishing. But it's minor. I'm just killing a little time here. Do carry on.

So it annoys you, but not, per se. And you ignore the truth, when you're not being annoyed, per se.

Ok, well, that tells me enough about you. I also notice you needed to dodge so you didn't have to answer my question.

But mainly I wonder (idly, very idly) what you think you're accomplishing. But do carry on if it amuses you.

I'm not saying things I find counterproductive haven't occurred on both sides.

But now that you mention it, I really don't know why I care what Hillary supporters do. I should go find a more productive activity. Sincere thanks for the push, no snark.

...but ~you~ are annoying the hell outa me.....

BERNIE!

...I'm kinda partial to The Truth. Not yer version of the truth

I think there's sumthing wrong with yer wirin'....

The truth is the truth ... if you don't like it, you can live in whatever fantasy world you want to. After the convention (at the latest), Sanders will be returning back to Vermont and Secretary Clinton will continue to be running for President in the General Election.

You can either get on board and "Stop Trump" or you can pout ... it's your choice.

I really don't understand what some of you think you are accomplishing.

If it's to seriously tempt me to go directly against what you claim to want (support for Hillary), nice job. Fortunately for your candidate, I don't operate like that. I'd *really* love to, though.

are a representative reflection of voter popularity, and considering that caucus states diminishes the accuracy and therefore value of vote totals; Bernie should rightfully be the nominee. The voters will have spoken at that point.

But, since you've stated that, you must believe that when Secretary Clinton clinches the majority of the pledged delegates (probably happening on Jun 7th), that she rightfully will be the nominee as the voters will have spoken ... yes?

then likely so.

Argh. I'm putting down the tablet now....

Nothing needs to be changed in my OP or the post you were responding to.

There shouldn't be any confusion. Haven't you been keeping up? This is the terminology that all the professionals (candidates and their teams, reporters, websites, etc.) are using.

I agree it is almost impossible, but 10 months ago no one would have picked Trump to be the nominee.

then his campaign shouldn't court superdelegates when Hillary won the popular vote fair and square.

Overall delegates for a state are not based on results of the caucus either. They are just proportionately. Overall delegates for a state are based on results of the last 3 general elections.

Your figures are correct. Any post saying his is mathematically eliminated is wrong. It's not really politically possible, but it is not mathematically impossible. He was in his strongest position just before NY. Since then it has become increasingly less mathematically plausible. It's still possible, but only something seismic would change it.

He can just barely get to 2,384 by getting all the pledged delegates (which we know won't happen) and without flipping any committed Super Delegates or getting uncommitted Super Delegates to commit to him (which could always occur, but hasn't been yet). So, he'll be eliminated that way soon enough too.

to hit 2,026 in PDs, and the supers would follow the PD winner. That is the only conceivable path. And that requires running the board with high margins from here.

Hillary's is the same route, but much much easier. She only needs to win about 35% of the remaining pledged delegates to hit 2,026. With the supers who have endorsed her she'll hit 2,383 total at about the same time as she hits 2,026 PDs, June 7.

Current PDs - 1414 or 1415 (depending on the source from above)
Current SDs - 41
PDs Avail. - 933

That comes out to 2388 or 2389.

After another primary or two, Sanders won't be able to make it with just the remaining PDs.

But it's all acedemic at this point.

Hillary lost in 2008 despite having the majority of the vote. She can still lose in the same situation as happened recently.

Although she technically had more votes, she trailed in delegates. And at this point, she has a lead nearly three times the size of Obama's in dlegates, and she has over 3 million more votes. Short of a miracle, ther is no way she loses.

Alaska - 81%
Hawaii - 68%
Idaho - 78%
Kansas - 69%
Maine - 64%
Utah - 81%
Vermont - 100%
Washington State - 73%

Those states account for 202 pledged delegates. There's also a number of states he won between 60% and 64%. Getting 64.5% of the remaining pledged delegates is a very tall order but it's not impossible. Most of the remaining states favor him and the Republican side being decided may end up shaking some things up unpredictably in a few open/semi-open states (which could favor either candidate, who knows).

originally, so I double checked the numbers and came up with the same list. I seriously don't know how I missed them.

But his problem is going to be that the biggest states don't favor him anywhere near that much (CA and NJ) ... and if he is basically a tie or say +/- 5%, it's going to mean he'll need virtually 100% in the others ... and that's not going to happen.

You are also right that the Republican race is done, so it could have some unpredictable consequences. Also, there are only 99 delegates available in open primaries/caucuses. The biggest ones are "semi-closed" (which the definition seems to vary from state to state). And many of the middle sized ones are closed. It's still not going to happen for him.

California is a hard state to judge just based on it's massive size. However it sits in the West (where he has netted half his delegates win totals to date), is highly progressive, is partially open (any non-affiliated can vote in it and still time to change registrations), and he's closing in in the polls with a month to go. California may end up deciding this race one way or the other. There is going to be massive get-out the vote efforts there by both candidates.

The exceptions being Vermont and Democrats abroad. There are not many caucuses left, and those remaining are delegate poor.

I'm sure that helped the margins (Hillary sucks at caucuses, not his fault). The reason he's won big is because of the location. Bernie has won states out West, northern part of the Midwest, and the North East. It just so happened the parts of of the country he does well (caucus or primary) had a bunch of caucuses and the area's Hillary did well (especially the south) had primaries. Some of the remaining delegates are in areas favorable to Hillary, a lot are in areas favorable to Bernie.



Of the remaining delegates:


104 are in the south with West Virginia, Kentucky, and DC. Bernie currently leads the polls in West Virginia, and Kentucky isn't like other southern states (for one, it's 90% white). DC votes at the very end (I suspect it'll go to Hillary).


38 Delegates are in the north part of the Midwest, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The surrounding states have gone Minnesota (Bernie 60%), Wyoming (tie), Iowa (Hillary 52%, first to vote), Nebraska (Bernie 60%).


126 delegates sit in the North East (New Jersey). It's surrounding states have gone New York (Hillary 56%), Pennsylvania (Hillary 56%), Maryland (Hillary 64%), Delaware (Hillary 57%). This one looks to strongly favor Hillary.


74 delegates are left in non-states, those are Guam, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. I'm not even going to try and compare them.


591 delegates sit in the West (a whopping 63% of the remaining delegates). This is the region Bernie has done the best in by far (account for more than half of his delegate wins). These are in Oregon, California, Montana, and New Mexico. Oregon is situated next to two of Bernie's best delegate earners, Washington state and Idaho. Only Nevada favored Hillary and has since flipped to Bernie. Montana is another far northern state that borders states Bernie won big in (save for Wyoming which was a tie). New Mexico borders a number of states Hillary won big and a state Bernie won big (Colorado). California is a beast unto itself. I'm not even going to try to compare it to other states. It's one of the most progressive states in the nation and easily the largest (accounting for 50% of the remaining delegates itself). And for the first time in a long time it's relevant in a primary.



However this ends up, the next month ought to be fun.