2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs this race breaking open?
Everyone has said for months that there was a possibility that the race could break open late. Most pundits assumed (of course) that it would be in Romney's direction. But it has been a very long time since the President has had a polling day this strong. He clearly has momentum. I think 300+ electoral college votes are very possible.
In addition. Think about this.
Karl Rove has not bought any ad time in Wisconsin to close the race.
Team Romney is up with adds in MN, MI, and PA. These are places they have not even thought about until now, as they frantically search for a path to 270.
Want further proof of the above conclusion? Team Romney is now buying add time in NM. YES NEW MEXICO! What does that tell you.
Today, Romney is in Florida. A place he was suppose to have wrapped up by now. After today he heads back to VA, another place he was suppose to have already in his column.
Finally, OH was closed shut today to the Romney campaign. Romney's desperation with his jeep add tells us this. The polling is conclusive. The only reason why OH is not put solidly in Obama's column is because that would mean the race is over. And yes, many of us still can't believe OH is this solidly behind the President. If these same numbers were coming out of almost any other state, nobody would have any problems coloring that state blue. The only hesitation is because it's OH, and thus, we ignore the apparent math and still give Romney a hypothetical shot.
Question to DU?
Are we seeing the start of this race breaking open in the Presidents direction?
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)That National Journal poll is extremely interesting as far as national polls go.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Still a lot more work yet to be done. I think Robme is desperate. And I don't think his backers will just sit back and lose. They are going for the juggler.
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)I honestly thought that he'd eventually hash out his tax plan in an attempt to at least make it seem plausible.
But no, he instead chose to try to ride that debate's momentum for an entire month and that clearly wasn't enough. Mitt hit his ceiling in early October and people have been waiting for him to show something more.
With Obama looking (rightfully so) mighty presidential amidst Sandy, people will once again flock to him.
Nobody remembers the first debate any more except for the Fox crowd who will forever gleefully treasure that night as "evidence" that the so-called affirmative action candidate was proven to be not that sharp.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)There are early signs that Obama is expanding his lead. We should know for sure by the weekend.
gkhouston
(21,642 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)A small hill is more insurmountable than a big one in some circumstances.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)courseofhistory
(801 posts)way.
Look here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251194496
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)except Indiana and North Carolina. And both states were very close in 2008. Indiana went for Bush by about 20 points in 04.
Here's what it looks like.
Obama-OH, WI, CO, NV, VA, IA, NH
Romney-NC, IN
Tossup-FL
kansasobama
(609 posts)Today's Ipsos poll is still showing only a 1 pt lead. Kinda sad. I was hoping for a bump following Sandy. Maybe, the country is so screwed up, Romney backers will not support Obama, period...That is ok. Let us just solidify. We are fine if we win by 1% in battleground states.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)I think Obama will get over 300 electoral votes, and win the popular vote by over two percentage points.
When it comes down to voting, most reasonable people feel the President deserves a second term.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)but since people don't read campaign statements they are all of a sudden feeling confident. The race has been shifting back to predebate numbers over the past few weeks. So really the race is stabilizing or correcting itself to what was the default for most of the campaign.
Look when people finally get a moment to step back they will realize Obama has been leading the race in EV the ENTIRE campaign.
kansasobama
(609 posts)If the job report goes down by even half a point, it will break open but, as one reader said, don't underestimate Karl Rove. We need to keep up the pressure.
I am on pins and needles about that job report. Hope Gallup unemployment report matches the Labor Dept report. Gallup needs to do at least one good job since their presidential polling has been a disaster.
nichomachus
(12,754 posts)"They're buying ad time." "Ads are up" "they're buying ad time."
If the polls were accurate -- Obama - 60/Romney 40. They wouldn't be buying any ad time. The media need the polls to be 50-50 -- or they lose revenue.
Never believe the polls -- even when they're in your favor.