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aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:06 PM Oct 2012

Is this race breaking open?


Everyone has said for months that there was a possibility that the race could break open late. Most pundits assumed (of course) that it would be in Romney's direction. But it has been a very long time since the President has had a polling day this strong. He clearly has momentum. I think 300+ electoral college votes are very possible.



In addition. Think about this.

Karl Rove has not bought any ad time in Wisconsin to close the race.

Team Romney is up with adds in MN, MI, and PA. These are places they have not even thought about until now, as they frantically search for a path to 270.

Want further proof of the above conclusion? Team Romney is now buying add time in NM. YES NEW MEXICO! What does that tell you.

Today, Romney is in Florida. A place he was suppose to have wrapped up by now. After today he heads back to VA, another place he was suppose to have already in his column.


Finally, OH was closed shut today to the Romney campaign. Romney's desperation with his jeep add tells us this. The polling is conclusive. The only reason why OH is not put solidly in Obama's column is because that would mean the race is over. And yes, many of us still can't believe OH is this solidly behind the President. If these same numbers were coming out of almost any other state, nobody would have any problems coloring that state blue. The only hesitation is because it's OH, and thus, we ignore the apparent math and still give Romney a hypothetical shot.


Question to DU?

Are we seeing the start of this race breaking open in the Presidents direction?
15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Is this race breaking open? (Original Post) aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 OP
My spidey sense says probably Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #1
As is that Rand poll that has Obama up by 5. Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #5
There's still fix days. Never trust KKKarl Rove and never rest on our laurels. Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #2
Romney hasn't done anything positive since Denver debate Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #3
Here's how I would characterize it DrToast Oct 2012 #4
+1. n/t gkhouston Oct 2012 #15
Not breaking open so much as solidifying. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #6
We soon will be counting down in hours instead of days. Plus so much Early Voting this week.... VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #7
It is breaking for Obama in a big courseofhistory Oct 2012 #8
It looks like Obama could carry every state he carried in 08 aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #10
Ipsos poll kansasobama Oct 2012 #9
I think it is lovemydog Oct 2012 #11
It broke open a while ago Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #12
Hope that job report does it kansasobama Oct 2012 #13
This explains why the polls are still 50-50 nichomachus Oct 2012 #14
 

Floyd_Gondolli

(1,277 posts)
1. My spidey sense says probably
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:07 PM
Oct 2012

That National Journal poll is extremely interesting as far as national polls go.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
2. There's still fix days. Never trust KKKarl Rove and never rest on our laurels.
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:09 PM
Oct 2012

Still a lot more work yet to be done. I think Robme is desperate. And I don't think his backers will just sit back and lose. They are going for the juggler.

Alekei_Firebird

(320 posts)
3. Romney hasn't done anything positive since Denver debate
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:09 PM
Oct 2012

I honestly thought that he'd eventually hash out his tax plan in an attempt to at least make it seem plausible.

But no, he instead chose to try to ride that debate's momentum for an entire month and that clearly wasn't enough. Mitt hit his ceiling in early October and people have been waiting for him to show something more.

With Obama looking (rightfully so) mighty presidential amidst Sandy, people will once again flock to him.

Nobody remembers the first debate any more except for the Fox crowd who will forever gleefully treasure that night as "evidence" that the so-called affirmative action candidate was proven to be not that sharp.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
4. Here's how I would characterize it
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:09 PM
Oct 2012

There are early signs that Obama is expanding his lead. We should know for sure by the weekend.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. Not breaking open so much as solidifying.
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:10 PM
Oct 2012

A small hill is more insurmountable than a big one in some circumstances.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
10. It looks like Obama could carry every state he carried in 08
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:30 PM
Oct 2012


except Indiana and North Carolina. And both states were very close in 2008. Indiana went for Bush by about 20 points in 04.


Here's what it looks like.

Obama-OH, WI, CO, NV, VA, IA, NH

Romney-NC, IN

Tossup-FL

kansasobama

(609 posts)
9. Ipsos poll
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:29 PM
Oct 2012

Today's Ipsos poll is still showing only a 1 pt lead. Kinda sad. I was hoping for a bump following Sandy. Maybe, the country is so screwed up, Romney backers will not support Obama, period...That is ok. Let us just solidify. We are fine if we win by 1% in battleground states.

lovemydog

(11,833 posts)
11. I think it is
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:31 PM
Oct 2012

I think Obama will get over 300 electoral votes, and win the popular vote by over two percentage points.

When it comes down to voting, most reasonable people feel the President deserves a second term.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
12. It broke open a while ago
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:34 PM
Oct 2012

but since people don't read campaign statements they are all of a sudden feeling confident. The race has been shifting back to predebate numbers over the past few weeks. So really the race is stabilizing or correcting itself to what was the default for most of the campaign.

Look when people finally get a moment to step back they will realize Obama has been leading the race in EV the ENTIRE campaign.

kansasobama

(609 posts)
13. Hope that job report does it
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:55 PM
Oct 2012

If the job report goes down by even half a point, it will break open but, as one reader said, don't underestimate Karl Rove. We need to keep up the pressure.

I am on pins and needles about that job report. Hope Gallup unemployment report matches the Labor Dept report. Gallup needs to do at least one good job since their presidential polling has been a disaster.

nichomachus

(12,754 posts)
14. This explains why the polls are still 50-50
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:55 PM
Oct 2012

"They're buying ad time." "Ads are up" "they're buying ad time."

If the polls were accurate -- Obama - 60/Romney 40. They wouldn't be buying any ad time. The media need the polls to be 50-50 -- or they lose revenue.

Never believe the polls -- even when they're in your favor.

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