2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOregon: Clinton leading Sanders + 15 - Clinton 48, Sanders 33. Ballots due at 8 p.m on May 17
Last edited Sun May 15, 2016, 04:00 PM - Edit history (1)
DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene hell speak again Tuesday night in Salem but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.
There was a stark age gap: Among those younger than 45, 64 percent supported Sanders, compared to 20 percent for Clinton. Among those 45 and older, the numbers flip: Clinton has the support from 56 percent of older voters, and Sanders had 25 percent.
Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent.
On the Republican side, 45 percent of likely voters surveyed said they have voted or plan to vote for Trump. Ted Cruz and John Kasich, who both suspended their campaigns last week, had 14 percent each among poll respondents.
But Trumps fortunes in Oregon may change after the primary: If the general election were held today, 43 percent of poll respondents said theyd vote for Clinton, and 32 percent said they would support Trump.
Those numbers shouldnt be seen as a ringing endorsement for either candidate, however. Among potential Trump voters, 52 percent said their vote was based more on their dislike of Clinton than Trumps appeal. Among Clinton supporters, 43 percent said they were supporting her because they dislike him.
Ballots in the Oregon primary due at 8 p.m. on May 17. The margin of error in the DHM Research survey ranged from 5.6 percent in the Democratic primary survey results to 3.3 percent for the general election questions.
http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/
Registered voters receive a ballot two to three weeks before an election, giving time to research issues or candidates.
Voters also receive an official ballot to complete and insert into the security envelope which is placed in the ballot return envelope and signed by the voter. The ballot return envelope can be stamped and mailed or dropped off at any official drop box across the state. If a voter casts their ballot after the Wednesday before an election, the ballot should be left at a drop box site to ensure it's counted.
Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/voteinor.aspx
This law was created by House Bill 2177, passed by the Legislature in the 2015 Session and signed into law by Governor Kate Brown.
The program modernizes voter registration in Oregon and provides a secure, simple, and convenient way for more Oregonians to become registered voters.
How it Works
Automatic voter registration is available if you are eligible* to register to vote and you apply for your original, renewal, or replacement license, permit, or ID card at the DMV.
Once you engage the Oregon Motor Voter process by visiting the DMV, you will receive a card and a pre-paid postage return envelope from the Oregon State Elections Office.
With this card, you have three options:
Do nothing. You will be registered to vote as a nonaffiliated voter (not a member of a political party).
Choose a political party by returning the card. Joining a political party will allow you to vote in its primary elections.
Use the card to opt-out and decline to register to vote.
Once registered, you will automatically receive a ballot and instructions in the mail about two weeks before an election. When you vote, your ballot is secret and your choices cannot be matched up with your name.
http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/motor-voter.aspx
grasswire
(50,130 posts)and already debunked.
Bernie will win in a landslide.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)Henhouse
(646 posts)I hope the poll is true but Nate Cohn of 538 thinks they under polled millenials....
Oregon should be an easy pick up for Sander's....
They might have underpolled millenials as there was a 88,000 uptick in registration. However, Benchmark politics, a pretty good poll fairly accurate this season, has Hill up by 2 points. Good Luck Oregon. BTW berners if that poll was underpolled thats why polls in swi g stayes had Trump close because it underpolled AA.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)He spoke in a neighboring city. This is one of the few actual facts the article is presenting, and it is wrong. This makes the rest of the narrative seem dubious as well.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)by a small margin... bet?
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The poll is real and unless there was some proof that it is not real then there is nothing to debunk.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)Greetings, my friends! This is just a quick Math Vs. Media Public Service announcement please pay no attention to the flood of news that is claiming that Clinton leads in the Oregon polls. All of them are based off of the same crappy survey a crappy survey of a mere 304 likely voters, 2 of which said they werent voting, knocking that down to 302 people.
The survey does not even state that these 302 are Democrats (the only group that can vote in the Oregon democratic primaries) and, because theyre listing the surveyed people as likely voters, not registered voters, one can only assume that the company, DHM Research, which conducted this survey, either
a.) Knows that some of them arent registered
or
b.) Doesnt know whether they are registered or not.
Furthermore, the survey does not reveal its methodology Ive searched their website and cant even find information about whether it was a landline, cellphone, or internet survey! (In their FAQ, they state that they use internet surveys & cell-phone surveys).
At the very least, even if we assume that the 302 people are registered democratic voters and that it wast an internet survey, were looking at about a 9-10% margin of error (±7% for the sample size and ±2-3% for using cell-phones), which is more than the survey says Clinton leads by. Therefore, the survey could potentially mean the opposite of what it says it means. I have called DHM Research repeatedly to inquire further but they have not picked up.
As you can surely see, this survey (even assuming a lot in its favor) means precisely: nothing at all, really. Well, it does mean one thing, actually. It means that Clinton and her corporate-media goons are getting desperate so desperate, in fact, that theyre now writing dozens of articles loudly trumpeting Clintons lead, all based off of the same shadowy survey of 302 people who we know nothing about. They are scared because
Oregon berns!
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)I am an Oregon native. Bernie is going to win big.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Who knew that's all it takes to be a polling expert.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)I guess vitriolic denial is all it takes to be a DCBob.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Also please provide a link to the "debunking".
That would all be helpful.
D'oh. I have much better things to do than babysit you. Done here!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The poll referenced in the OP had 901 "likely voters".. the poll your "math expert" is referring to says it had only 304 likely voters
I think the confusion is coming from a second poll the pollster did using a different model which resulted in less respondents which is what the "math expert" seems to be concerned about.
http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/
Poll crosstabs:
http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1463018600/OPBFoxOregonDemocraticPrimaryTypicalTurnoutModel_vwg245.pdf
Sorry to have bothered you.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I think Snders wins OR, but by 30 points? Not in a closed primary state....
annavictorious
(934 posts)It has not been debunked, but it does appear to be an outlier.
Sanders is very likely to win, but I think it will only matter to those counting on fauxmentum.
MattP
(3,304 posts)A closed caucus perhaps, but primary. I think it will be close anyone thinking they know is lying considering there is only one poll
Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)but it will be close. Here is the wiki page on OR vote by mail. I was curious if they even had polling places. I believe that every county has to have at least one polling place open on election day.
[link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote-by-mail_in_Oregon|
factfinder_77
(841 posts)Registered voters receive a ballot two to three weeks before an election, giving time to research issues or candidates.
Voters also receive an official ballot to complete and insert into the security envelope which is placed in the ballot return envelope and signed by the voter. The ballot return envelope can be stamped and mailed or dropped off at any official drop box across the state. If a voter casts their ballot after the Wednesday before an election, the ballot should be left at a drop box site to ensure it's counted.
Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/voteinor.aspx
This law was created by House Bill 2177, passed by the Legislature in the 2015 Session and signed into law by Governor Kate Brown.
The program modernizes voter registration in Oregon and provides a secure, simple, and convenient way for more Oregonians to become registered voters.
How it Works
Automatic voter registration is available if you are eligible* to register to vote and you apply for your original, renewal, or replacement license, permit, or ID card at the DMV.
Once you engage the Oregon Motor Voter process by visiting the DMV, you will receive a card and a pre-paid postage return envelope from the Oregon State Elections Office.
With this card, you have three options:
Do nothing. You will be registered to vote as a nonaffiliated voter (not a member of a political party).
Choose a political party by returning the card. Joining a political party will allow you to vote in its primary elections.
Use the card to opt-out and decline to register to vote.
Once registered, you will automatically receive a ballot and instructions in the mail about two weeks before an election. When you vote, your ballot is secret and your choices cannot be matched up with your name.
http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/motor-voter.aspx
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)Or his goose is even more cooked
riversedge
(70,242 posts)Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)A Sanders loss or few point win will mean the goose will have berned 😀
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)Wish we had that in my state where we must contend with a caucus.
Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)fun n serious
(4,451 posts)I do NOT see big Bernie support in the suburbs. I only see it in North, North East, and downtown. Heavy Hispanic Hillsoboro has many Clinton signs. East Portland and Gresham where minorities live are Clinton ville.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Lives in Hillsoboro, and she told me that it is indeed Clinton country, and that for months she's seen nothing but Hillary Clinton signs covering most lawns (And her own lawn also), and she told me that her neighbors are feeling are feeling a Hillary Clinton win of Oregon. She said that she's seen maybe 10 Bernie signs in total in that area for the longest time (months). Whichever candidate having the most lawn signs doesn't tell the tale as to who'll win as we know, but she was just telling me what's been going on in her neck of the woods there in Oregon the past few months.
I've seen the latest poll showing that Hillary Clinton will win Oregon and by a wide margin. I doubt that, and am still feeling that Bernie Sanders has the edge in winning Oregon, although I do feel that he won't win it in "gigantic" numbers as I've seen predicted.
We'll see what IS what in just a few days literally. The proof will be in the pudding (results).
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Bernie may win. It will not be as big as people think. I am holding my hope for Hillary.