2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBecause #math
These are the most recent polls of the last 3 weeks.
States that were not included were states:
*Where the repugs win with either candidate
*States where they did not poll Bernie vs Trump, only Hillary vs Trump
*States where polls were over 3 weeks old.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 39, Trump 43 Trump +4
Ohio: Trump vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 43, Trump 41 Sanders +2
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton Dartmouth Clinton 34, Trump 29 Clinton +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders Dartmouth Sanders 49, Trump 28 Sanders +21
Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton Atlanta Journal-Constitution Trump 45, Clinton 41 Trump +4
Georgia: Trump vs. Sanders Atlanta Journal-Constitution Trump 42, Sanders 47 Sanders +5
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 44, Trump 44 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 46, Trump 43 Sanders +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 54, Trump 39 Clinton +15
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 57, Trump 37 Sanders +20
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 47, Trump 41 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 50, Trump 39 Sanders +11
When you solve a mathematical equation, you need to look at ALL variables to come to your conclusion.
Oh ya - I almost forgot this other mathematical equation...
Hillary Favorable ratings:
Poll Date Fav/Unfav Spread
RCP Average 3/30 - 5/9 -- 39.0 54.5 -15.5
______________________________________________________________________
Sanders Favorable ratings:
Poll Date Fav/Unfav Spread
RCP Average 3/30 - 5/9 -- 46.9 40.0 +6.9
NobodyHere
(2,810 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)NobodyHere
(2,810 posts)Why?
TDale313
(7,820 posts)Because Generals and Primaries are totally different animals. The Primary was always gonna be the hardest piece for him, and beating the Clinton machine and the entire Democratic establishment in the contests where they make the rules? Not an easy task.
Independents decide the General and they love Bernie and they don't like Hillary. Fair or not that's the case. And Bernie is a far better matchup against Trump in this antiestablishment year than Hillary would be.
So yes, it can absolutely be true that Hillary is beating Bernie in the Primaries but he'd be stronger in the General.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Sejon
(109 posts)Winning a primary is not an indication you'd be a good candidate in a general election.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)1st place: Hillary Clinton
2nd place: Donald Trump
3rd place: Bernie Sanders
NewImproved Deal
(534 posts)Yet the Party Bosses are hogtied to this weak Vanity Candidate...because "It's Her Turn":
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)Receiving them makes no difference when shenanigans are involved.
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Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)You can claim you "won" if you like, but it just shows you don't care about democracy or the welfare of the people. Nobody wins with a Trump presidency and nobody wins with a Clinton presidency except the oligarchs.
Supporting Hillary is supporting banksters, big pharma, war, fracking, cuts in SS, compromising a woman's right to control her own body, private prison industry... so hey, I can understand when you are behind all the Republican policy and status quo why you would tire of hearing the people stand up for themselves.
A lot of people in power were tired of hearing about marriage equality too, and desegregation, and women wanting to vote. Yes, those were tiresome things to have to listen to over and over again. Too bad people didn't just shut up and stay home, right?
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Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)Bernie supporters are talking about the issues. All you are doing is complaining about Bernie supporters.
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cui bono
(19,926 posts)And ignoring the reality of cheating, voter disenfranchisement, voter purging, delegate stripping and brown shirts. Ignoring media blackouts and lies. Ignoring establishment rigging of elections, exit poll irregularities, elections under investigation and decertified results.
Yeah, there's a reason Hillary is ahead and it ain't due to the people's will.
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SFnomad
(3,473 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)And why several states' elections are under investigation. And why the Hill camp called in the police to squash any dissent to "irregularities" in the delegate process in Nevada.
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Response to cui bono (Reply #16)
Post removed
jillan
(39,451 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)against their own interests.
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Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)in the emails?
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Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)You attack Hillary and her supporters endlessly just to hide behind unification when we return fire. Weak, very weak. You lost. You need to lay down arms first.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)Sejon
(109 posts)On the issues, Bernie was the stronger candidate, and he'd be the stronger candidate against Trump.
jillan
(39,451 posts)voters who can actually vote in the general election. Hillary does not. She has no cross-over appeal.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)It's funny because when it's about Hillary vs. Bernie all they care about is winning and polling, they won't talk about issues or policy, but that all goes out the window and doesn't matter any more when it's Hillary vs. Trump.
If Hillary gets the nom and makes it into the GE and loses it will be on them. We tried to warn them. If she manages to win and implements Republican policy it will be on them. If impeachment proceedings start the moment she puts her hand on the bible it will be on them.
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pangaia
(24,324 posts)They will be after us with the proverbial pitchforks.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)in order to squash it.
That's why I've been leaving posts around lately telling them it's all on them. They are the ones supporting a flawed and corporate candidate and the establishment is foisting her upon us by hook or by crook, so they can take responsibility. Bernie is better on all the issues, will fight the people's fight AND polls better in the GE against Trump all over the country. If they really like winning they should think about the war and not just the battle.
I have no idea why they are carrying water for the establishment/banksters/health industry. Unless they are paid to do so. Otherwise they are voting/working against their own self-interests.
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JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)To hell with democracy.
onenote
(42,715 posts)Relying on the polls back at the beginning of primary season would have shown Bernie was way behind.
But over time, those polls got closer.
Why? Because poll results can change over time. And the direction they change is not predictable.
Which is why citing GE polls now and claiming that should determine the outcome of the primary battle is as silly as it would have been to cite polls from late last year to determine the outcome of the primary battle.
mooseprime
(474 posts)unless it supports the DNC narrative. you "factinista" you!
pangaia
(24,324 posts)winning in November.
It is about Hillary Clinton becoming president.
One corporatist against an inhuman monster.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)"X vs. Sanders" no longer exists. He's done.
Sander's national numbers in these polls are fantasy, as no GOP candidate has bothered to raise much of a critical finger at him this entire time. Once the GOP/RNC machine started rolling, Bernie's numbers would've sunk like a stone.
Just...please. Stop embarrassing yourself.