Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate thinks Santorum will edge out Romney OHIO
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/live-coverage-super-tuesday/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#where-is-ohio-headedLive Coverage: Super Tuesday
By NATE SILVER
The biggest day so far in the race for the Republican presidential nomination 11 states weigh-in could solidify Mitt Romneys grip on the nomination or upend the contest. Well be bringing you data-driven analysis, exit poll information, historical perspective and state-by-state results.
9:41 P.M. Where Is Ohio Headed?
Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by about 3 points in Ohio with a third of the vote counted. But are the areas that have reported so far representative of the entire state?
One way to get an idea of this is to assume that each county will account for the same share of the state's vote that it did in 2008. This method is potentially more reliable than making extrapolations based on the number of precincts that have have reported in each county, since precincts can vary significantly within a county in the number of voters they contain.
If you weight the 2012 margins between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney as reported so far by the 2008 turnout in each county, it suggests that Mr. Santorum's margin might narrow slightly, but that he is perhaps the slight favorite to hold on; that method would have him winning statewide by 1.2 percentage points.
Obviously that is very close and there are some problems with this method. A handful of small Ohio counties haven't reported results at all, for instance, and the assumption that turnout will be proportional to 2008 is not necessarily correct. But it looks like Mr. Santorum has the slightest of edges here.
- Nate Silver
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
9 replies, 1949 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (10)
ReplyReply to this post
9 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Nate thinks Santorum will edge out Romney OHIO (Original Post)
Laura PourMeADrink
Mar 2012
OP
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)1. I was just coming here to say the opposite.
It looked to me like more of Romneys strong areas are not all in yet. But thats just from scanning the map on Google.
I hope Nate's right.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)2. Romney is underperforming across the board.
The Ohio result will be close, the margin of victory could be as small as 1-2,000 votes.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)3. You are right. And I think it was Rover who said the same thing
when we listened to Fox for a minute. Should be interesting, long night maybe
still_one
(92,454 posts)4. Couldn't happy to a better group of jerks. I hope they self-destruct /nt
joshcryer
(62,277 posts)5. Rmoney outspent Santorum 4:1 in Ohio. FOUR TO ONE!
mvd
(65,180 posts)6. I hope so
The comedy would be great.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)7. So does intrade 65% for Santorum
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)8. wow youre right
Romney is dropping, down to 30% now.
Thats good news. Intrade is a good indicator.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)9. lol Romney is now 98% its crazy