2016 Postmortem

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts) Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:07 PM Nov 2012

ABC/Washington Post Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48

49 O - 48 R

13 replies

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ABC/Washington Post Poll: Obama 49, Romney 48 (Original Post) VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 OP

That's a four-point net gain since Saturday BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #1

Not really. FBaggins Nov 2012 #5

Actually, it was a week ago BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #10

How many days does this tracking poll include in its sample? VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #2

Obama has not historically done well in the ABC poll TroyD Nov 2012 #3

I Remember Watching And Watching That Poll In 00 And Hoping It Would Turn To Gore DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #8

48.56 for Obama and 48.49 for Romney TexasCPA Nov 2012 #4

Yes. buckyblue Nov 2012 #6

but the swing state polls look a lot better TexasCPA Nov 2012 #11

Yep buckyblue Nov 2012 #12

That .7 was me blazeKing Nov 2012 #9

Good enough. DCBob Nov 2012 #13

Fucking finally outsideworld Nov 2012 #7

BeyondGeography

(39,377 posts)

1. That's a four-point net gain since Saturday

Reply to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:10 PM

Nov 2012

Winning.

FBaggins

(26,753 posts)

5. Not really.

Reply to BeyondGeography (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:19 PM

Nov 2012

Saturday was 49-48 the other way, but they clearly say that both were extreme examples of rounding impact... that the real gap is in hundredths of a percent.

BeyondGeography

(39,377 posts)

10. Actually, it was a week ago

Reply to FBaggins (Reply #5)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:26 PM

Nov 2012

http://www.newser.com/story/156480/in-a-first-romney-cracks-50-in-abc-post-poll.html

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)

2. How many days does this tracking poll include in its sample?

Reply to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:12 PM

Nov 2012

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

3. Obama has not historically done well in the ABC poll

Reply to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:17 PM

Nov 2012

So this is a positive sign.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

8. I Remember Watching And Watching That Poll In 00 And Hoping It Would Turn To Gore

Reply to TroyD (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:20 PM

Nov 2012

It never did. Their final poll was Bush* 48% -Gore 45%.

But the majority of pollsters got the 00 pop vote wrong by about 2%.

Pollsters underrated the Democratic ground game or presumably didn't capture it with their likely voter screens.

TexasCPA

(527 posts)

4. 48.56 for Obama and 48.49 for Romney

Reply to VirginiaTarheel (Original post)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:19 PM

Nov 2012

buckyblue

(24 posts)

6. Yes.

Reply to TexasCPA (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:20 PM

Nov 2012

Doesn't reassure me at all. It's just not right and I predict (with my limited political knowledge) that this election will be close close close.

TexasCPA

(527 posts)

11. but the swing state polls look a lot better

Reply to buckyblue (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 05:31 PM

Nov 2012

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 06:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Obama is up in the states that count - OH, NV, IA, NH, WI, MI, and PA.

buckyblue

(24 posts)

12. Yep

Reply to TexasCPA (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 06:29 PM

Nov 2012

But I have sworn off polls. Really. My gut cannot take it.

To me, PA, WI, and MI shouldn't even be "swing states." Those are blue states. Romney shouldn't even having a tiny piggy toe of win in those states...