2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow Obama Kicks Romney's Ass in November
This is my prediction for Obama-Romney for the moment. The election is still a long way away, but a blue map is a good start.
Let the nit-picking begin!
Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)in fact we sure as hell aren't losing NH or Colorado or Nevada, not with the numbers Obama is getting with Hispanics.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Obamacare
(277 posts)You might want to switch colors with Georgia and NV.
Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)And if Romney or (in some alternate universe where he is capable of winning New York and California) Santorum come out of the primary really damaged (hint they already are.)
Last poll I saw actually had Obama and Romney tied in the state, and we only lost it by around 5 or 6 last time.
SmellyFeet
(162 posts)It's certainly a long shot, but Georgia isn't quite as red as you might think.
Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)if it came down to him and Obama. Who else do they got?
mvd
(65,180 posts)GA could be a surprise win. WV will likely be a loss; not sure what happened there. TX will be closer than expected.
Nevada-strong support from Hispanics will help offput momons.
Arizona-PPP has Obama and Romney tied.It's In play
Co-Hispanics will help Obama here.Last polling had Obama ahead of Romney
Georgia-CNN has Obama and Generic Republican tied among registered voters.It's not out of question for Obama
Missouri-PPP has Obama and Romney tied.It could be 2008 all over again and be determined by turnout.In 2008 Mccain was able to
get relgious voters out just enough to barely beat Obama here.Romney has problem with being momon.If there Is any lowturnout by
religous voters and a good turnout by Democrats In St Louis City and County and Kansas City Obama could win.
NH-Last poll had Obama beating Romney by 10
Indiana-I don't think we should dismiss Obama here.Illinois being next door and the antiunion efforts could have an effect here.In
2008 Obama just barely losing the primary and winning Indiana In General election were better than polls said.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)I'm still sticking with my initial guess, in which I added a 15% shift in President Obama's favor to every competitive and tossup state from 2008.
That winds up being somewhere in the 409-413 range.
I'll not lie and say that I don't have another reason for it, which is that I think the Republican "vig setters" in charge of the voting machines are simply going to throw up their hands and not meddle with the results, lest they get caught interfering in a way-lost election and give up the chance to steal it in 2016.
The second-to-last exit poll will finally agree with the results for the first time in twelve years. That's how you'll know I'm right.