2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumALL POLLS ARE WORTHLESS THIS FAR OUT. ASK PRESIDENT ROMNEY
Romney was ahead in every poll against Obama at this same point.
Anyone basing an argument on this early polling = garbage in - garbage out.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)... convention.
Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts)at this moment.
I think Romney's and Obama's likeability was probably 10-20 points higher than both Hillary and Trumps are now.
This is going to be the lamest horse race in history.
Two three legged horses hopping toward a finish line with nobody watching.
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)I have voted in every election since McGovern and the vast majority of the time I voted for what I saw as the lessor of evils.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)If you want the most accurate question ever asked during polling that routinely picks who will the presidential election, just look at one question: who would you rather have a beer with?
Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts)They just do.
rock
(13,218 posts)So it is prima facie wrong. A careful examination of it's track record at predictability will confirm this. But it does make for an exciting horse race, and this is why the Press loves it. To repeat: it has NO predictive power.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)One reason why W won? People liked the guy and said they would rather have a beer with him over Gore.
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)HRC better hope her reputation comes out clean else it's gonna be a tough sell.
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)She is the most qualified to be the next president regardless of the repub talking hit pieces that have stuck.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)which lead to millions dead?
No, sorry. Bad judgement is a disqualifier.
onenote
(42,759 posts)And he went from a big lead in the polls in May 1988 to a massive loss.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1988
Jimmy Carter wasn't under investigation in 1980 and he went from a 6-8 point lead in the polls in May 1984 to a massive loss.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980
You think you can predict the future. But you can't.
GreydeeThos
(958 posts)Elections do not start until after Labor Day
The only people participating right now are political junkies. The real voters, the majority of voters who decide elections, don't wake up until a month or so before November. Summer handicapping is fun, but it is October when our adversary is conquered.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...her negatives or how they feel about her.
Once voters learn the name, "Hillary Clinton" after Labor Day, I'm sure all these negative poll numbers will change.
GreydeeThos
(958 posts)When October gets here, it will be the Republicans struggling uphill. Not only will they be looking at embarrassment in the popular vote, and a complete trouncing in the Electoral College, but the down ballot races are where they will have a crushing defeat. The conservatives will be in complete disarray next January.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)and this election is much less predictable than any other in modern history
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)Has been "who do you think will most likely be the next president".
Even the majority of republican answer Hillary.