2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary: Don't blame Sanders supporters, your problems with independents is your fault
Hillary camp is putting out there the meme that Bernie is doing better against Trump because of his "sour loser" supporters who are supporting Trump out of spite or worse his supporters agree with Trump more than Hillary because they are racist and misogynists.
Has it ever crossed their mind that Sanders is actually appealing to the non leaning democratic independents? Why would these voters who don't usually vote for the Dem or have sense of loyalty to the democratic party, all of sudden vote for someone like Clinton? If these voters are choosing Trump over her, what does it say about her campaign, and her as candidate?
What is lost is that Obama lost Independents to Romney in '12. He won because Dem turnout was higher than GOP turnout. In '16, its change wave election that favors GOP b/c of 8 year Obama rule. Their base will be much more engaged and motivated. Winning these Independents will determine who wins the White House. If Clinton can't win these voters, she should step aside to prevent Trump presidency.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Tavarious Jackson
(1,595 posts)with Dem's, black, Hispanic and older women.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)In fact, just about every older woman I know is a Bernie fan. Weird, isn't it.
840high
(17,196 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)doesn't mean she can't win, but it would help if she had more support from independents.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)How come he doesn't lose those voters in the general? His favorable with Dems in those demos are very close to Clinton. For whatever reason they have chosen Clinton over Sanders. That doesn't mean they don't like Sanders or would not vote for him.
The opposite is true. There is large segment of the population that would vote for Bernie but not for Clinton.
Jackilope
(819 posts)Lifelong Dem as well, until after our state primary. Thanks to the likes of DWS and the Clinton's, I will exit and disassociate with Third Way.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Jackilope
(819 posts)Either way, her job is really to protect those delicate flowers of the 1% and assure them she won't rock the boat on their gravy train. Add to that her ego -- it is her turn and come hell or high water she wants that title of first woman president so bad that she'll rig, pander, whatever it takes to get it. There is NO hope she would wake up or accept that her baggage and unfavorable ratings would cause damage. Heck, she and Bill have done nicely covering up or weaseling out of messes before, why not this time too? It has never been about the good of us with her. It has been all about her from get go.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)attempting to pin her potential loss to Trump on Bernie Sanders and his supporters. They proudly boast that he can only win open caucuses or primaries (not true) as if independents won't be voting in November.
Not to mention that a lot of the dems who still believe in the core values of the party support him, and may have a hard time voting for her. They won't vote for Trump, but they won't vote for her.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Her biggest problem is going to be getting high voter turnout. Obama was arguably the best campaigner EVER, and turnout was down in '12. Even with him, it will be down '16.
This election is going to be the most negative in history. People don't turn to the polls out of fear. Fear may affect the 40-50% voters who consistently vote, but its not going to drive the non traditional voters. End result is that GOP is going to have candidate who will drive out their voters (racists, bigots, misogynists), and the Dems will put out there a candidate that doesn't inspire any group of voters.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)about two years ago now, when everyone was certain the candidates would be Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, I said that the real problem with that match-up was going to be total voter apathy. I foresaw a record low turnout.
It it's Hillary v the Donald, there are so many who don't want to vote for either one that I think we will also see very low, possibly record low turnout.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Recent CBS Poll: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-but-voters-view-both-unfavorably/
Independents 51/33 Hillary vs Trump
Sanders is only slightly higher, within the MOE.
The problem is that most people don't understand what independents are. They're not all a bunch of leftists, as some have opined on this very website. Roughly a third lean left, roughly a third lean right, and roughly a third can't be bothered to care enough to lean one way or the other.
The ones that lean left are almost exclusively going to vote for the nominee of the Democratic Party in November.
The ones on the right will mostly vote for Trump, though there are indications that many of them will stay home or vote Dem, regardless of the Dem nominee, thanks to anti-Trump sentiment.
The ones in the middle will, surprise, probably split, though several polls have shown that some are likely to lean to the Dem side or stay home, again thanks to anti-Trump sentiment.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Theyre all emotion.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)CBS/NYT is the most favorable to Clinton poll recently, and it has 40/40 tie among Independents (btw Sanders wins 50-34).
ABC/Washington Post - 48/35 (Trump/Clinton)
NBC/WSJ - 42/37 (Trump/Clinton)
Fox News - 41/24 (Trump/Clinton) (Gary Johnson gets 18%)