2016 Postmortem

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts) Fri Nov 2, 2012, 08:33 PM Nov 2012

New Poll IA:Obama 46%/Romney 44%

Romney still has not led in a single battleground poll in the last 24 hours.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111960215/12mem1102-f-IA-Presidential

www.mellmangroup.com

The Mellman Group, Inc.Re: President Obama Holds Slight Edge In Tight Iowa Race, Leads Early Vote By 17Date: November 2, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 Iowa electorate using a registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines.

Six hundred (600) interviews were conducted October 30-November 1. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-4.0% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows Obama and Romney locked in a tight battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes, butwith the president holding a slight lead overall, and a 15-point advantage among those who havealready cast their ballots. Forty-six percent (46%) said they planned to or already had voted forObama, 2 points higher than Romney’s vote share. Among the 41% of the electorate who havealready cast their ballot, Obama collected 51% of the vote to Romney’s 36%. Twelve percent (12%)declined to reveal their choice.

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New Poll IA:Obama 46%/Romney 44% (Original Post) aaaaaa5a Nov 2012 OP

That's a little on the close side TroyD Nov 2012 #1

I don't think we really have Dem pollsters aaaaaa5a Nov 2012 #2

TroyD

(4,551 posts)

1. That's a little on the close side

Reply to aaaaaa5a (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 08:37 PM

Nov 2012

Particularly coming from a Democratic pollster.

But the odds are still in Obama's favor for Iowa according to Nate Silver and others.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)

2. I don't think we really have Dem pollsters

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 08:42 PM

Nov 2012

There is nobody on the Dem side that is equal to Ras or Gravis or ARG.

Generally the Dem pollsters are usually right. (PPP has an excellent track record.)

The best way to judge the polls is to average all of the polls together. This almost never fails on election day. RCP use to be a great site to do this but I have noticed this cycle, many polls missing from their calculation.

The point is, all of the polls show Obama with a lead. And the odds that they are all wrong are pretty low.

Its pretty telling that a Friday before election day, Romney failed to pull a lead of even 1% from any battle-ground state.

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