2026 is the number without super delegates. She currently has 1768. So she needs 258 more pledged delegates to get that majority as well.

2,384 is half of all the delegates (super+pledged). In order to win the nomination on the first ballot, you must hit this number.

Even though half of the pledged delegates is 2,026, that is not enough to win the nomination as it does not include super delegates. As such, she will need the super delegates to cross the threshhold.

As the super delegates have not voted (endorsing doesn't count as a vote), she will not be able to cross that threshhold until the convention. So, if she wants to clinch prior to the convention, she has to have 2,384 pledged delegates. Otherwise, she has to wait for the super delegate votes to come in.

Consider the convention a primary for the super delegates and it will make sense.

But there are many who keep insisting Hillary must have 2384 by the convention, where then the supers vote. If they are separate things, they should be separate things until they are combined in the first ballot in Philly.

In my mind I think the 2026 number be the one watch all the way to Philly. If one or the other crosses that threshold, then they've secured a majority of Democratic voters. Now if the supers choose to vote the other way, then I see a good argument that the super delegates have over ridden the will of the people.

Looking back over the history of super delegates in the Democratic party, not once have the supers over-ridden the pledged delegates. The winner of the first ballot, each year, has also won a majority of the pledged delegates. Obama did that in 2008, for example.

Also I don't understand why Sanders people keep insisting Hillary must have this number, but Hillary people do not appear to think this way.

If the supers were to consistently go with the will of the people, there would be no need for supers and we would just go with the voters. Supers are in place specifically to override the voters in cases where the party does not believe the people truly know best. It is a failsafe and, just because it hasn't been triggered before, doesn't mean it wouldn't be in extreme cases.

I don't think we need the supers, but we have them and our opportunity to change that was in 2015 before the primary got going. So there's no point crying about them in 2016.

I do know why they exist in the party, I don't agree with it, but I know why. They exist to prevent a popular uprising that hijacks the party and runs it off the rails. The notion came about after the 1968 debacle and the system we have today was implemented as it is now in 1980. Its been running on auto pilot ever since. They are meant to be a stabilizing force in the party to keep it even keeled and on course.

The Republicans have an insurgency problem with the Tea Party. They have no such protection system and the end result is Trump.

The crap side of supers is the power brokers of the Democrats figured out, a long time ago, that if they slowly steered the party, then the supers don't matter. Now that half of the left wants a course correction for a rightward lurches top Democrats have made over the years, the supers stand in the way. They prevent a quick turn of the SS Democrat, so any course corrections will have to take time.

which is why I say to Sanders people: If your serious about change in politics, stick around and help take the party back. Don't quit if Hillary is the nominee. Liberalism needs you more than ever right now. Stay here in the party, continue to struggle as you have, be involved, help turn the ship leftward more.

And wouldn't have been different with supers. Humphrey was going to be the nominee from the moment Bobby was murdered.

She was even closer to him in delegates and popular vote cast.

So Bernie needs to get over himself and man up.

to force the supers to decide, but she could have.

I suspect Sanders will ultimately make the same choice.

Just like Hillary in '08.

Neither candidate will get to the nomination number, 2,383, through PDs alone.

The nominee will rely on supers to bridge the gap between the PD number and 2,383.

It is widely presumed and accepted that the candidate to secure a majority of the PDs, 2,026, will receive the backing of the supers to get to 2,383.

Thus, it is a race to 2,026 PDs. Until one candidate reaches 2,026 PDs, the race is not over. That is the clinch number.

One caveat, the argument can be made that even though one candidate secures 2,026 PDs, the supers could flip to the other candidate for some number of reasons. That argument is weak and won't get anyone very far.

Sid

Its logical and rational.

My point is always that she has to get 2026 PDs; until she does so, HRC supporters look like idiots every time they make the false claim that "Bernie lost."

That has been their main argument for about a year though so why am I surprised. No debate on substance, just how they like it.

Pledged delegates must vote for the candidate they are pledged to. Thus, if a candidate gets 2384 or more pledged delegates in the primaries, it is a foregone conclusion who the nominee will be and the vote is really just a formality. But if no nominee gets across that line, a decision by the supers will matter (a contested convention). If the supers put a candidate over 2383 on that first vote, then it's done and that candidate is the nominee. If they do not then the convention becomes a brokered convention, moves to the second ballot, and all delegates can realign.

If Hillary does not get past 2383 by the end of the primaries, then it becomes entirely possible (even if very unlikely) for Sanders to pull off an upset. He would have to flip only enough supers to prevent a first ballot decision, and then all delegates would be up for grabs on subsequent ballots. Since there's growing chatter about money scandals and FBI probes, that could become pretty risky for Clinton, depending on the mood of the individual delegates.

Since that scenario is within the realm of possibility, Clinton's claims that it is decided already are somewhat unfounded.

Sure... SDs pledged before a single primary vote was cast....

then there's this: