2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In New Jersey
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/?ex_cid=538fbWeve known for some time that Hillary Clinton will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. But when will she clinch the nomination? If you look at the few remaining contests on the Democratic primary calendar, the major news outlets barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign in the next few weeks are likely to declare Clinton the nominee on June 7. More specifically, New Jersey will likely push Clinton across the finish line, and she may clinch the nomination even before the polls close in California.
If major news outlets declare Clinton the nominee on June 7, they will be counting superdelegates, as they did in 2008 when they declared Barack Obama the presumptive Democratic nominee on June 3.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)until the convention is said and done the race for the White House isn't over.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)But this horse shit about her clinching the nom before the convention needs to stop.
LonePirate
(13,424 posts)RandySF
(58,900 posts)Even if it's not.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Bernie did not create those rules.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)She will be declared the nominee because the supers vote with the candidate who has the most delegates. It really is not hard. He has lost...he has been behind by an insurmountable number of delegates since super Tuesday really...certainly New York finished him.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)How is that insurmountable?
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)include pledged delegates which are 4046, the super delegates are included in the required delegate count, 719 and eight places only gets half of a delegate count so the super delegates are counted in the required of 4765 and the required 2383 to get the nomination. Hillary will have more than 2023 which is half of the pledged delegates. She will also have more than 2383 delegates, on the first vote in the convention it will be clear who the nominee is.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)But please keep adding the supers into the equation. Puffing up her support is the only thing HRC is good at.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Sanders has 1485 pledged delegates which means Sanders will need 898 more pledged delegates to win. There are only 761 pledged delegates left, so what does this mean, Sanders has lost by your rules. There is a problem with your rule.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)That's okay. Here's a snap shot of how many delegates are left to obtain:
And even if he doesn't get it she won't either. So off to convention we go...
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)pledged delegates, he needs 898 more pledged delegates according to the rules of needing all required delegates to get the nomination. In your post #52 you stated
The rules state that the first with 2,383 DELEGATES (not supers) wins
There are only 761 pledged delegates left, how is Sanders going to get 898 pledged delegates when there are only 761 pledged delegates left?
How is this going to happen?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)neither will get all of them
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)which helps them sleep at night I guess...
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)TimPlo
(443 posts)How else would Clinton be getting so many "votes" Yet have 2nd lowest favorable rating of anyone ever running for POTUS. And #1 is Trump by only a few points.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Oh wait. He didn't.
LonePirate
(13,424 posts)A concession speech on June 7 after the polls close in CA seems likely. Events change people's minds.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)and the supers only count during the convention. Till then no one is going nowhere.
LonePirate
(13,424 posts)Bernie will concede before the convention regardless of what he says today. I'm sure Cruz was going all the way to the convention in Cleveland until Trump won in Indiana. June 7 will hold a similar fate for Bernie.
peggysue2
(10,831 posts)Sanders didn't quit. He lost. As in he will not be the nominee because Hillary Clinton won more votes and pledged delegates.
I know that's still a bone of contention around here but the math is the math. And yes, my native state of New Jersey will officially tip Hillary Clinton into the presumptive nominee category. Though we've known the state of the race since mid-March.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)If it did we'd still be worshiping the crown.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)If we did, the Bible would still be required reading for grade-schoolers.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Children are being forced to read confederate speeches, revised history, and the exploits of right wing heroes like Reagan.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Is that better or worse than "worshiping the crown"?
Buzz cook
(2,472 posts)Most organized endeavors rely on math in some way, but democracy relies on it completely.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)If part of the populous can't vote for their best interest then the powers that be remain in charge. That's math for ya!
Buzz cook
(2,472 posts)can vote for someone interested in their best interest.
Corporate666
(587 posts)We don't live in a democracy but a representative republic, but democracies do rely on math. Pretty much solely on math.
The same math which shows Bernie - by your own metric - has been mathematically eliminated from contention.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)She will be the nominee whether he quits or not...and he will look like a fool and have no influence...of course he brought in Fox guy West so...what use is he anyway.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)Obama had less votes than Clinton does now...she only lost by about 100...and the supers committed yote for Obama and told Hillary no...yes she asked...after all she had the popular vote, lost by less than 100 votes, had polls better than Bernie's and MIchigan and Florida were not seated...but the supers said no...just as they will to Bernie...and she was a team player and had him nominate by acclamation...who knows what Bernie will do...kind of a sore loser.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Bernie lies through his teeth when he says it will be a contested convention
JudyM
(29,251 posts)Oh, but not the same: Bernie isn't lying.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)what you want to hear about something you follow and support/oppose.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)is the day Fixed News goes out of business.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)the celebration will start on DU.
I hope Skinner finally calls it then!
peggysue2
(10,831 posts)I'll have a bottle of chilled wine ready for the announcement.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)But I know it'll be riot in the HRC echo chamber. Knock yerselves out!
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)If you check out ask Administrators, you will see that...if she crushes Bernie I have no idea if Skinner will wait untiil DC.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)He seems to be doing very well convincing Americans with his limited vocabulary.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Barack Obama would not have had the required 2117 without Super Delegates in 2008 and he was declared the nominee and Hillary graciously conceded after he reached that threshhold, so your entire line of argument is complete bullshit.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Obama was declared the "winner" by the media but she quit and gave him the nomination. Sanders is taking this to convention so we'll see how this pans out.
So no, its not utter bullshit.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Gotcha.
He'll lose every committee assignment next year, then.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)How is Nadering anyone?
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Now he's just running as a spoiler.
If Hillary loses, Sanders gets the blame, rightly so.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)You can't expect to win when you run and support a candidate 60% of the people can't fucking stand.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)If Hillary loses it will only be because Sanders Nadered her.
HE will be reviled by all true liberals for all time.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Nader ran in a third party in the general.
You hillary supporters need to take responsibility for nominating a terrible, out of touch, status quo, un-electable, under investigation, unlikable candidate.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Until the convention is done with the primaries will continue. I can't help you if it pisses you off.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)They just keep spewing shit and talking about things they don't know anything about.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)They just don't give a shit about the rules as long as their candidate wins, which is why they've put up with the disenfranchisement until now. What they don't know is that the same mechanisms that earned their victory could be used against them should Trump get his ducks in a row with the establishment.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)But what's being "reported" is even worse.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)He is done. At the convention...she goes in first ballot...I think he will concede well before the convention.
Put a mirror under 'Mr. Bern's' (pun intended) nose and see if it fogs up.
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)IMPOSSIBLE! THIS WILL BE A CONTESTED EFFING CONVENTION WHETHER THE HILL FOLKS LIKE IT OR NOT! FUCKING CONTESTED! THEN ... WE'LL SEE HOW THE SUPERS WANT TO EXECUTE THEIR VOTES? PLENTY OF "NEWS" TO COME OUT IN THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS! SHE'S TOAST!
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)To the whole political thing? Sure sounds like it.
She will win on the first ballot.
I can't wait till Bernie concedes and endorses Clinton and gets thrown under his own bus.
Fla Dem
(23,690 posts)On the first ballot with the super delegates she will be declared the winner and the Democratic nominee. There is no other scenario as much as you wish and hope for it.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)In the spirit of unity, with the goal of victory....
She is a class act.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)what Sen Sanders is made of soon enough. I'm starting to doubt he has half the grace Hillary had.
Thanks for posting that MADem.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Wonder if it happens again.
Tavarious Jackson
(1,595 posts)It won't happen. Onward... to win
ecstatic
(32,707 posts)Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)And if we are lucky she will never get the nomination.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)joshcryer
(62,276 posts)...it would be bullshit. At least she will get the pledged delegate majority later in the night.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Pledged delegate majority with CA.
But they should call it with the delegate (including supers) majority like they did Obama.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)BootinUp
(47,165 posts)RandySF
(58,900 posts)Where Bernie is campaigning
riversedge
(70,242 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)with over a 500 Super Delegate lead before the first vote was cast in Iowa!
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)They would have switched to him as they did to Obama in 08. Fact it Bernie has as good a shot maybe better than Obama...and he lost. That is how it goes.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)and won the most delegates...the supers switched to him.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)over a 500 super delegate lead before the first vote was cast in Iowa? Prove it!
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)... But if she fails to get 2026 delegates they will likely take it back.
brooklynite
(94,596 posts)Sanders people can complain all they want; Party people, superdelegates, the media and most aware voters will see the Primary fight as over.
thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)code for the an FBI/email bombshell. Nobody other than Sanders supporters is willing to say it out loud, but everyone knows it's out there hanging over her head. And that, in a nutshell, is why it makes no sense for Bernie to step aside prematurely.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)<iframe width="630" height="354" src="
" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>Shame on 538, they know better...
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)adding Superdelegates to get that.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)IT IS NOT OVER UNTIL ONE OF THE TWO CONCEDES SINCE NEITHER WILL REACH THE DELEGATE COUNT.
That is what happened in 2008.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)SECRETARY CLINTON WILL BE THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE ON JUNE 7TH.
It doesn't matter if you believe she is or not. Calling someone the PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE, even if it requires Superdelegates to justify it has historical precedent ... namely Obama in 2008. But you can pretend she isn't ... nobody is going to stop you from your fantasy life.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)or the SUPERS FUCKING VOTE. I realize this PROCESS SHIT IS HARD FOR YOU
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)You can live in your own fantasy world, but you can't make up your own definitions of words and expect the rest of us to agree with you.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)PDs, not with the help of SDs, go argue with DWS...
brooklynite
(94,596 posts)...you on the other hand can presume that an unprecedented shift that thwarts the will of the Democratic electorate will occur.
I wonder which one is more likely?
"Crickets" ....from our favorite Unbiased Journo.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)when all the media is calling Secretary Clinton the PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE. I can just see all the hissy fits, stomping of feet and poo flinging now. Y'all are going to need a serious time out.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)They've been wrong so many time this election.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)2016 President Democratic Nomination
Hillary Clinton
97 %
Bernie Sanders
3 %
Math > Good stuff!
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)k8conant
(3,030 posts)fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Washington State
Last updated on 05/24/2016 8:20 PM
President Democratic Party County Results
Candidate
Vote / Vote %
Hillary Clinton
351,761 / 53.68%
Bernie Sanders
303,475 / 46.32%
k8conant
(3,030 posts)fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Primary "straw polls."
k8conant
(3,030 posts)which was non-binding.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)I assumed most BS adherents would rather ignore the significance of tens of thousands of voters preferring HRC over BS in a democratically held statewide vote.
k8conant
(3,030 posts)in the state of Washington.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)And the Washington State SD's stated they are going to vote for HRC.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)That is why she will not have enough pledged delegates before the convention in July. Neither will.
Sam
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Because 2026 majority - 1,771 Clinton pledged delegates won = 255 delegates to go for majority in the english system.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)the ones that look into crystal balls and predict that Huckabee will win the 2016 presidential election!