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SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
Tue May 24, 2016, 04:32 PM May 2016

538: Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In New Jersey

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/?ex_cid=538fb

We’ve known for some time that Hillary Clinton will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. But when will she clinch the nomination? If you look at the few remaining contests on the Democratic primary calendar, the major news outlets — barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign in the next few weeks — are likely to declare Clinton the nominee on June 7. More specifically, New Jersey will likely push Clinton across the finish line, and she may clinch the nomination even before the polls close in California.

If major news outlets declare Clinton the nominee on June 7, they will be counting superdelegates, as they did in 2008 when they declared Barack Obama the presumptive Democratic nominee on June 3.
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538: Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In New Jersey (Original Post) SFnomad May 2016 OP
Fuck what the media says d_legendary1 May 2016 #1
The only thing happening at the convention is Hillary's nomination. JaneyVee May 2016 #3
Maybe d_legendary1 May 2016 #15
So Obama didn't clinch the nomination before the 2008 convention? LonePirate May 2016 #16
Whatever Bernie says is true RandySF May 2016 #23
The rules state that the first with 2,383 DELEGATES (not supers) wins d_legendary1 May 2016 #52
You think this is the GOP system...when she win Jersey and he can not catch up Demsrule86 May 2016 #54
He's down 298 delegates d_legendary1 May 2016 #69
Where did you see this rule? Half plus one is the required delegate count, 4765 delegates which Thinkingabout May 2016 #67
A simple google search can give you the rules d_legendary1 May 2016 #70
Did you do the math? Are you saying Sanders will need to get 2383 of the delegates to win? Thinkingabout May 2016 #79
So you didn't use Google d_legendary1 May 2016 #83
Actually I used a calculator, 2383 is the required number of delegates needed, Sanders has 1485 Thinkingabout May 2016 #96
The media is adding the supers nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #71
Unfortunately some people buy into that bull spit d_legendary1 May 2016 #72
My apologies nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #73
Well of coarse there are simple low information people TimPlo May 2016 #78
I didn't know Sanders quit d_legendary1 May 2016 #25
Check back on June 15, possibly June 8. LonePirate May 2016 #26
No one is winning the nomination with delegates alone d_legendary1 May 2016 #40
Again, let me refer you to 2008 where exactly that happened. The same will happen this year. LonePirate May 2016 #45
You're right peggysue2 May 2016 #38
Good thing Democracy doesn't rely on math d_legendary1 May 2016 #41
Good thing we don't live in a Democracy. OilemFirchen May 2016 #46
You're right. We live in an Oligarchy d_legendary1 May 2016 #63
I see. OilemFirchen May 2016 #95
Democracy does rely on math. Buzz cook May 2016 #61
It sure does d_legendary1 May 2016 #64
Good thing then that people Buzz cook May 2016 #66
Ironically, it does Corporate666 May 2016 #99
He will have no choice Demsrule86 May 2016 #56
You guys want to make this commplicated Demsrule86 May 2016 #53
I'm sorry that the truth is so upsetting to you n/t SFnomad May 2016 #27
Its true the media lies but d_legendary1 May 2016 #42
On the first ballot easy. workinclasszero May 2016 #19
Like Clinton when she says it's just a "security review." JudyM May 2016 #30
Yeah ... unless, of course, it is someone you follow and like and constantly says ... 1StrongBlackMan May 2016 #5
The day the media reports the actual news d_legendary1 May 2016 #14
As soon as Hillary clinches in NJ workinclasszero May 2016 #21
I'm with you! peggysue2 May 2016 #39
Doubt Skinner is that irresponsible d_legendary1 May 2016 #43
It will be called when the voting is done Demsrule86 May 2016 #59
I expect him to call it...but he may wait untiil after DC. Demsrule86 May 2016 #57
+1 n/t SFnomad May 2016 #103
All the foul language in the world will not change reality KingFlorez May 2016 #24
Tell that to Trump d_legendary1 May 2016 #44
Oh bullshit! MohRokTah May 2016 #34
You mean she quit d_legendary1 May 2016 #49
So Sanders is going to NAder Hillary. MohRokTah May 2016 #89
Sanders is still running as a Democratic Candidate d_legendary1 May 2016 #90
Sanders lost the race on MArch 15. MohRokTah May 2016 #91
If she loses it's her and her supporters who get the blame. Cobalt Violet May 2016 #98
Nope, after the shit he's pulled here in the past two weeks, it's ALL on Sanders MohRokTah May 2016 #102
Sanders hasn't nadered anyone. Cobalt Violet May 2016 #104
He is actively NAdering Hillary right now. eom MohRokTah May 2016 #105
you're crazy. Cobalt Violet May 2016 #107
Please spare me from your wishful thinking d_legendary1 May 2016 #108
Lol! They don't make a shred of sense. Cobalt Violet May 2016 #106
Oh they know! d_legendary1 May 2016 #109
hey 538 said "99% chance Clinton wins Michigan" GreatGazoo May 2016 #48
Yeah the source is shit d_legendary1 May 2016 #50
Stick a fork in him Demsrule86 May 2016 #51
bern enid602 May 2016 #62
EXACTLY1 TOTAL PROPAGANDA LYING HOGWASH! RIGHT NOW SHE NEEDS 612 PLEDGED DELEGATES TO WIN CorporatistNation May 2016 #75
You are new GulfCoast66 May 2016 #101
HRC will go into the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates. Fla Dem May 2016 #122
Fist pump! JaneyVee May 2016 #2
This is how you do it - it's not that hard. MADem May 2016 #4
We will be finding out leftynyc May 2016 #7
Beautiful pressbox69 May 2016 #8
DU 2008 was stunned when that happened. joshcryer May 2016 #12
That was wonderful. Bernie does not have the class for this. Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #13
I agree but I hope we're both wrong. nt ecstatic May 2016 #68
+1 oasis May 2016 #31
They can do it in a way where Bernie doesn't win a single state. Renew Deal May 2016 #32
Mad, that was WONDERFUL. Thank you so much for posting that. Number23 May 2016 #112
We're gonna need a bigger buss here! n/t fleabiscuit May 2016 #6
More like a fleet of buses. Beacool May 2016 #11
Hillary will never get a super majority of pledged delagates RobertEarl May 2016 #47
Hooray for my state. Beacool May 2016 #9
I hate supers but if they didn't do it like they did Obama... joshcryer May 2016 #10
CA will probably be the state to put Secretary Clinton over the pledged delegate majority n/t SFnomad May 2016 #17
Yeah, delegate majority with NJ. joshcryer May 2016 #22
Yes, I agree, they should n/t SFnomad May 2016 #28
K & R for a Sane post in GDP BootinUp May 2016 #18
That's three hours before CA RandySF May 2016 #20
wishing and hoping..wishing and hoping. riversedge May 2016 #29
Corporate owned media loves Hillary. B Calm May 2016 #33
This is the same way they handled Obama becoming the Presumptive Nominee back in 2008 n/t SFnomad May 2016 #35
So do voters which is why she's the presumptive nominee mythology May 2016 #36
So does the Oligarchy we call the DNC who crammed her down our throats B Calm May 2016 #37
Had Bernie won the most pledged delegates Demsrule86 May 2016 #60
That's how it goes when you start the race way ahead of the field. B Calm May 2016 #118
Obama was in the same place Demsrule86 May 2016 #119
You saying Hillary started the race against Obama with B Calm May 2016 #120
They will likely be right Tiggeroshii May 2016 #55
I came up this this estimate a month ago... brooklynite May 2016 #58
re: "barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign in the next few weeks" thesquanderer May 2016 #65
ONLY IF YOU ADD SUPERS nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #74
It was done in 2008 with Obama on June 3rd ... he was called the Presumptive Nominee and it required SFnomad May 2016 #76
Ok let me use even more caps nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #77
Let me use caps too then ... SFnomad May 2016 #80
NOT UNTIL ONE CONCEDES nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #81
Sorry, that's not the definition of PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE SFnomad May 2016 #84
I am sorry it is hard for you, but presumtive nominee needs to capture the nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #86
But I can PRESUME that the Superdelegates will vote the way they've announced they will... brooklynite May 2016 #87
And... pkdu May 2016 #110
Man, you people are going to be unbearable come June 8th SFnomad May 2016 #88
We hear this weekly. Logical May 2016 #82
538 is not a credible source of info Cobalt Violet May 2016 #85
PredictWise is pretty good though… fleabiscuit May 2016 #93
We'll see how good the math is in November. Cobalt Violet May 2016 #97
Yes Math is greater than Good stuff! k8conant May 2016 #111
But good stuff is still pretty good. fleabiscuit May 2016 #113
Absolutely meaningless totals (straw primary) k8conant May 2016 #116
Ya, that's what the 50 states call the election to pick all the local and down-ticket candidates. fleabiscuit May 2016 #121
You know and I know that I was referring to the presidential preference part of the primary k8conant May 2016 #124
I think you got me wrong. fleabiscuit May 2016 #125
I think most HRC supporters want to ignore the stated delegate selection process k8conant May 2016 #126
Don't matter to me one bit. HRC already has this. fleabiscuit May 2016 #127
Hillary needs to capture 612 more pledged delegates out of an available 781 Samantha May 2016 #117
Are you using a metric system? fleabiscuit May 2016 #123
yes they are like online psychics Rosa Luxemburg May 2016 #94
If you walk into a psychics business they immediately know a sucker walked in. n/t fleabiscuit May 2016 #100
538's still trying to make predictions?? opiate69 May 2016 #92
No, she won't clinch it, not even after California amborin May 2016 #114
LOL SFnomad May 2016 #115

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
52. The rules state that the first with 2,383 DELEGATES (not supers) wins
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:03 PM
May 2016

Bernie did not create those rules.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
54. You think this is the GOP system...when she win Jersey and he can not catch up
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:08 PM
May 2016

She will be declared the nominee because the supers vote with the candidate who has the most delegates. It really is not hard. He has lost...he has been behind by an insurmountable number of delegates since super Tuesday really...certainly New York finished him.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
67. Where did you see this rule? Half plus one is the required delegate count, 4765 delegates which
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:32 PM
May 2016

include pledged delegates which are 4046, the super delegates are included in the required delegate count, 719 and eight places only gets half of a delegate count so the super delegates are counted in the required of 4765 and the required 2383 to get the nomination. Hillary will have more than 2023 which is half of the pledged delegates. She will also have more than 2383 delegates, on the first vote in the convention it will be clear who the nominee is.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
70. A simple google search can give you the rules
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:37 PM
May 2016

But please keep adding the supers into the equation. Puffing up her support is the only thing HRC is good at.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
79. Did you do the math? Are you saying Sanders will need to get 2383 of the delegates to win?
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:50 PM
May 2016

Sanders has 1485 pledged delegates which means Sanders will need 898 more pledged delegates to win. There are only 761 pledged delegates left, so what does this mean, Sanders has lost by your rules. There is a problem with your rule.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
83. So you didn't use Google
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:57 PM
May 2016

That's okay. Here's a snap shot of how many delegates are left to obtain:



And even if he doesn't get it she won't either. So off to convention we go...

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
96. Actually I used a calculator, 2383 is the required number of delegates needed, Sanders has 1485
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:17 PM
May 2016

pledged delegates, he needs 898 more pledged delegates according to the rules of needing all required delegates to get the nomination. In your post #52 you stated

The rules state that the first with 2,383 DELEGATES (not supers) wins

There are only 761 pledged delegates left, how is Sanders going to get 898 pledged delegates when there are only 761 pledged delegates left?
How is this going to happen?

 

TimPlo

(443 posts)
78. Well of coarse there are simple low information people
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:49 PM
May 2016

How else would Clinton be getting so many "votes" Yet have 2nd lowest favorable rating of anyone ever running for POTUS. And #1 is Trump by only a few points.

LonePirate

(13,424 posts)
26. Check back on June 15, possibly June 8.
Tue May 24, 2016, 05:17 PM
May 2016

A concession speech on June 7 after the polls close in CA seems likely. Events change people's minds.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
40. No one is winning the nomination with delegates alone
Tue May 24, 2016, 07:52 PM
May 2016

and the supers only count during the convention. Till then no one is going nowhere.

LonePirate

(13,424 posts)
45. Again, let me refer you to 2008 where exactly that happened. The same will happen this year.
Tue May 24, 2016, 08:12 PM
May 2016

Bernie will concede before the convention regardless of what he says today. I'm sure Cruz was going all the way to the convention in Cleveland until Trump won in Indiana. June 7 will hold a similar fate for Bernie.

peggysue2

(10,831 posts)
38. You're right
Tue May 24, 2016, 06:32 PM
May 2016

Sanders didn't quit. He lost. As in he will not be the nominee because Hillary Clinton won more votes and pledged delegates.

I know that's still a bone of contention around here but the math is the math. And yes, my native state of New Jersey will officially tip Hillary Clinton into the presumptive nominee category. Though we've known the state of the race since mid-March.

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)
46. Good thing we don't live in a Democracy.
Tue May 24, 2016, 08:17 PM
May 2016

If we did, the Bible would still be required reading for grade-schoolers.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
63. You're right. We live in an Oligarchy
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:23 PM
May 2016

Children are being forced to read confederate speeches, revised history, and the exploits of right wing heroes like Reagan.

Buzz cook

(2,472 posts)
61. Democracy does rely on math.
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:17 PM
May 2016

Most organized endeavors rely on math in some way, but democracy relies on it completely.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
64. It sure does
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:26 PM
May 2016

If part of the populous can't vote for their best interest then the powers that be remain in charge. That's math for ya!

Corporate666

(587 posts)
99. Ironically, it does
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:23 PM
May 2016

We don't live in a democracy but a representative republic, but democracies do rely on math. Pretty much solely on math.

The same math which shows Bernie - by your own metric - has been mathematically eliminated from contention.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
56. He will have no choice
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:09 PM
May 2016

She will be the nominee whether he quits or not...and he will look like a fool and have no influence...of course he brought in Fox guy West so...what use is he anyway.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
53. You guys want to make this commplicated
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:04 PM
May 2016

Obama had less votes than Clinton does now...she only lost by about 100...and the supers committed yote for Obama and told Hillary no...yes she asked...after all she had the popular vote, lost by less than 100 votes, had polls better than Bernie's and MIchigan and Florida were not seated...but the supers said no...just as they will to Bernie...and she was a team player and had him nominate by acclamation...who knows what Bernie will do...kind of a sore loser.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
19. On the first ballot easy.
Tue May 24, 2016, 05:05 PM
May 2016

Bernie lies through his teeth when he says it will be a contested convention

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
5. Yeah ... unless, of course, it is someone you follow and like and constantly says ...
Tue May 24, 2016, 04:38 PM
May 2016

what you want to hear about something you follow and support/oppose.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
21. As soon as Hillary clinches in NJ
Tue May 24, 2016, 05:06 PM
May 2016

the celebration will start on DU.

I hope Skinner finally calls it then!

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
43. Doubt Skinner is that irresponsible
Tue May 24, 2016, 08:02 PM
May 2016

But I know it'll be riot in the HRC echo chamber. Knock yerselves out!

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
59. It will be called when the voting is done
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:12 PM
May 2016

If you check out ask Administrators, you will see that...if she crushes Bernie I have no idea if Skinner will wait untiil DC.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
34. Oh bullshit!
Tue May 24, 2016, 06:19 PM
May 2016

Barack Obama would not have had the required 2117 without Super Delegates in 2008 and he was declared the nominee and Hillary graciously conceded after he reached that threshhold, so your entire line of argument is complete bullshit.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
49. You mean she quit
Tue May 24, 2016, 08:58 PM
May 2016

Obama was declared the "winner" by the media but she quit and gave him the nomination. Sanders is taking this to convention so we'll see how this pans out.

So no, its not utter bullshit.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
89. So Sanders is going to NAder Hillary.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:07 PM
May 2016

Gotcha.

He'll lose every committee assignment next year, then.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
91. Sanders lost the race on MArch 15.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:12 PM
May 2016

Now he's just running as a spoiler.

If Hillary loses, Sanders gets the blame, rightly so.

Cobalt Violet

(9,905 posts)
98. If she loses it's her and her supporters who get the blame.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:22 PM
May 2016

You can't expect to win when you run and support a candidate 60% of the people can't fucking stand.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
102. Nope, after the shit he's pulled here in the past two weeks, it's ALL on Sanders
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:33 PM
May 2016

If Hillary loses it will only be because Sanders Nadered her.

HE will be reviled by all true liberals for all time.

Cobalt Violet

(9,905 posts)
104. Sanders hasn't nadered anyone.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:43 PM
May 2016

Nader ran in a third party in the general.


You hillary supporters need to take responsibility for nominating a terrible, out of touch, status quo, un-electable, under investigation, unlikable candidate.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
108. Please spare me from your wishful thinking
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:51 PM
May 2016

Until the convention is done with the primaries will continue. I can't help you if it pisses you off.

Cobalt Violet

(9,905 posts)
106. Lol! They don't make a shred of sense.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:47 PM
May 2016

They just keep spewing shit and talking about things they don't know anything about.


d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
109. Oh they know!
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:55 PM
May 2016

They just don't give a shit about the rules as long as their candidate wins, which is why they've put up with the disenfranchisement until now. What they don't know is that the same mechanisms that earned their victory could be used against them should Trump get his ducks in a row with the establishment.

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
51. Stick a fork in him
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:02 PM
May 2016

He is done. At the convention...she goes in first ballot...I think he will concede well before the convention.

CorporatistNation

(2,546 posts)
75. EXACTLY1 TOTAL PROPAGANDA LYING HOGWASH! RIGHT NOW SHE NEEDS 612 PLEDGED DELEGATES TO WIN
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:46 PM
May 2016

IMPOSSIBLE! THIS WILL BE A CONTESTED EFFING CONVENTION WHETHER THE HILL FOLKS LIKE IT OR NOT! FUCKING CONTESTED! THEN ... WE'LL SEE HOW THE SUPERS WANT TO EXECUTE THEIR VOTES? PLENTY OF "NEWS" TO COME OUT IN THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS! SHE'S TOAST!

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
101. You are new
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:31 PM
May 2016

To the whole political thing? Sure sounds like it.

She will win on the first ballot.

I can't wait till Bernie concedes and endorses Clinton and gets thrown under his own bus.

Fla Dem

(23,690 posts)
122. HRC will go into the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates.
Wed May 25, 2016, 11:09 AM
May 2016

On the first ballot with the super delegates she will be declared the winner and the Democratic nominee. There is no other scenario as much as you wish and hope for it.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
4. This is how you do it - it's not that hard.
Tue May 24, 2016, 04:38 PM
May 2016


In the spirit of unity, with the goal of victory....

She is a class act.
 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
7. We will be finding out
Tue May 24, 2016, 04:40 PM
May 2016

what Sen Sanders is made of soon enough. I'm starting to doubt he has half the grace Hillary had.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
47. Hillary will never get a super majority of pledged delagates
Tue May 24, 2016, 08:20 PM
May 2016

And if we are lucky she will never get the nomination.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
10. I hate supers but if they didn't do it like they did Obama...
Tue May 24, 2016, 04:45 PM
May 2016

...it would be bullshit. At least she will get the pledged delegate majority later in the night.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
22. Yeah, delegate majority with NJ.
Tue May 24, 2016, 05:07 PM
May 2016

Pledged delegate majority with CA.

But they should call it with the delegate (including supers) majority like they did Obama.

 

B Calm

(28,762 posts)
37. So does the Oligarchy we call the DNC who crammed her down our throats
Tue May 24, 2016, 06:29 PM
May 2016

with over a 500 Super Delegate lead before the first vote was cast in Iowa!

Demsrule86

(68,586 posts)
60. Had Bernie won the most pledged delegates
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:14 PM
May 2016

They would have switched to him as they did to Obama in 08. Fact it Bernie has as good a shot maybe better than Obama...and he lost. That is how it goes.

 

B Calm

(28,762 posts)
120. You saying Hillary started the race against Obama with
Wed May 25, 2016, 07:32 AM
May 2016

over a 500 super delegate lead before the first vote was cast in Iowa? Prove it!

 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
55. They will likely be right
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:08 PM
May 2016

... But if she fails to get 2026 delegates they will likely take it back.

brooklynite

(94,596 posts)
58. I came up this this estimate a month ago...
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:11 PM
May 2016

Sanders people can complain all they want; Party people, superdelegates, the media and most aware voters will see the Primary fight as over.

thesquanderer

(11,989 posts)
65. re: "barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign in the next few weeks"
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:28 PM
May 2016

code for the an FBI/email bombshell. Nobody other than Sanders supporters is willing to say it out loud, but everyone knows it's out there hanging over her head. And that, in a nutshell, is why it makes no sense for Bernie to step aside prematurely.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
74. ONLY IF YOU ADD SUPERS
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:45 PM
May 2016

<iframe width="630" height="354" src="

" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Shame on 538, they know better...
 

SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
76. It was done in 2008 with Obama on June 3rd ... he was called the Presumptive Nominee and it required
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:47 PM
May 2016

adding Superdelegates to get that.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
77. Ok let me use even more caps
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:48 PM
May 2016

IT IS NOT OVER UNTIL ONE OF THE TWO CONCEDES SINCE NEITHER WILL REACH THE DELEGATE COUNT.

That is what happened in 2008.

 

SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
80. Let me use caps too then ...
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:51 PM
May 2016

SECRETARY CLINTON WILL BE THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE ON JUNE 7TH.

It doesn't matter if you believe she is or not. Calling someone the PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE, even if it requires Superdelegates to justify it has historical precedent ... namely Obama in 2008. But you can pretend she isn't ... nobody is going to stop you from your fantasy life.

 

SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
84. Sorry, that's not the definition of PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:57 PM
May 2016

You can live in your own fantasy world, but you can't make up your own definitions of words and expect the rest of us to agree with you.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
86. I am sorry it is hard for you, but presumtive nominee needs to capture the
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:03 PM
May 2016

PDs, not with the help of SDs, go argue with DWS...

brooklynite

(94,596 posts)
87. But I can PRESUME that the Superdelegates will vote the way they've announced they will...
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:06 PM
May 2016

...you on the other hand can presume that an unprecedented shift that thwarts the will of the Democratic electorate will occur.

I wonder which one is more likely?

 

SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
88. Man, you people are going to be unbearable come June 8th
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:07 PM
May 2016

when all the media is calling Secretary Clinton the PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE. I can just see all the hissy fits, stomping of feet and poo flinging now. Y'all are going to need a serious time out.

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
93. PredictWise is pretty good though…
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:15 PM
May 2016

2016 President – Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton
97 %
Bernie Sanders
3 %

Math > Good stuff!

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
113. But good stuff is still pretty good.
Tue May 24, 2016, 11:39 PM
May 2016

Washington State
Last updated on 05/24/2016 8:20 PM

President Democratic Party County Results

Candidate
Vote / Vote %
Hillary Clinton
351,761 / 53.68%
Bernie Sanders
303,475 / 46.32%

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
121. Ya, that's what the 50 states call the election to pick all the local and down-ticket candidates.
Wed May 25, 2016, 11:01 AM
May 2016

Primary "straw polls."

k8conant

(3,030 posts)
124. You know and I know that I was referring to the presidential preference part of the primary
Wed May 25, 2016, 04:03 PM
May 2016

which was non-binding.

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
125. I think you got me wrong.
Wed May 25, 2016, 06:53 PM
May 2016

I assumed most BS adherents would rather ignore the significance of tens of thousands of voters preferring HRC over BS in a democratically held statewide vote.

k8conant

(3,030 posts)
126. I think most HRC supporters want to ignore the stated delegate selection process
Wed May 25, 2016, 07:51 PM
May 2016

in the state of Washington.

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
127. Don't matter to me one bit. HRC already has this.
Wed May 25, 2016, 08:29 PM
May 2016

And the Washington State SD's stated they are going to vote for HRC.

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
117. Hillary needs to capture 612 more pledged delegates out of an available 781
Wed May 25, 2016, 03:34 AM
May 2016

That is why she will not have enough pledged delegates before the convention in July. Neither will.

Sam

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
123. Are you using a metric system?
Wed May 25, 2016, 11:09 AM
May 2016

Because 2026 majority - 1,771 Clinton pledged delegates won = 255 delegates to go for majority in the english system.

Rosa Luxemburg

(28,627 posts)
94. yes they are like online psychics
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:15 PM
May 2016

the ones that look into crystal balls and predict that Huckabee will win the 2016 presidential election!

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