As much as I would like to believe otherwise, it seems to me Clinton can coast to the finish line and secure enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination.

the last 40 years.

which is possible, but highly unlikely. That be a 86-14 drubbing

and until one drops, err suspends, we go to the convention, This is process

MSNBC's Kornacki agrees with Sanders: Clinton will NOT go to convention with a lock on delegates:

https://www.facebook.com/susan.sanders.35325/videos/636912853123585/

I support Bernie, but this is silly.

primaries:

MSNBC's Kornacki agrees with Sanders: Clinton will NOT go to convention with a lock on delegates:

https://www.facebook.com/susan.sanders.35325/videos/636912853123585/

Last edited Tue May 24, 2016, 11:22 PM - Edit history (1)

deserve our utmost respect. While the campaign lasted, it was almost heroic in many ways.

If you hadn't signed up here two days ago, I would never have gotten the chance to be so enlightened.

I can see now how that might have seemed a bit insensitive, especially at this time. Sorry.

Surely you can figure out how.

Now what were you saying about a million dollars?

who you're responding to.

This whole internettin' thing is hard, huh?

¿Son ciegas, o sólo analfabetas?

Your analogy is apt, even if it is jarring to those who do not have a first-row seat to human tragedy day after day. We've seen these plays of life and death repeat themselves with different plots and players but common threads.

Bargaining is a real thing. Sometimes it's harmless. Sometimes the patient would be ready to go, but feels obligated to undergo all manner of painful and pointless therapy because it's the kin who are in the bargaining stage. I think the Sanders' campaign kin of DU are deeply and tightly mired in the bargaining stage. This too shall pass.

I hope you will not let bullies scare you away. Welcome to DU. Hop on over to the Hillary group for more friendly conversation if you like. All this will pass soon. California will be the end of it, and DU will improve dramatically. I hope you will stay and enjoy it here. We need more Democrats on Democratic Underground.

I won't be bullied. I edited my post only to assure a critic that I understand that it has become unimportant what any of us say about this situation now. I would have allowed him to write for me just about anything reasonable had he wanted. No me importa.

I just hope that everyone can get back together for what appears to be significant challenge in the fall. It's going to get so ugly that we all need to practice smiling - if only to preserve our sanity.

Thanks again for the warm welcome.

...and switched to the candidate who was winning.

See the difference?

What is this claim based on?

Congrats on this revelation!

180% sure they wont.

before the convention, she will get the number of required delegates before the primaries are over. Even if she only got half of he pledged delegates it will be enough either way. Soon and very soon the rest of the SD's will endorse and Hillary will have plenty of lagniappe .

Left for Sanders to get the nomination. It's over for Sanders.

Last edited Wed May 25, 2016, 01:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Hillary became the presumptive nominee in April. Her pledged delegate advantage is insurmountable. At this point we're are all going through the motions, until the last state has voted. The super delegates have never gone against the will of the people and they are not about to start doing so this year. Besides, Hillary is their first choice anyway.

Remember, many super delegates have already pledged to Hillary, therefore they are no longer unpledged delegates, which is why the major networks feel that they can call the race at that time. You are right that it will not be official until the convention, but for all intents and purposes, she will be the nominee at that time.

Well....keep hope alive.

Clinton will almost certainly take Puerto Rico, and unless something truly radical happens between now and June 10th, she'll take enough just from New Jersey to put her over the top. Both NJ and CA are proportional allocation states - even if, by some fluke Sanders does win in California, he'll still only see about 50% of the delegates, and I'm guessing that Orange County and environs will clearly swing Clinton's way, even if San Francisco and points north go to Sanders.

There are several other data points to consider. First, Sanders' numbers have been dropping pretty steadily since New York. He has less than $5 million in the bank, making a big ad buy in California difficult. Clinton has $30M, and her numbers are picking up. She's also shifting her focus to Trump. What's happening now between Sanders and Clinton is horse trading - he's getting concessions about committee membership from the DNC, locking in what gains he can, but I would be willing to bet that he will formally concede on the 10th or 11th of June.

After that, things get interesting. I expect that about 50% of the Sanders voters will vote, reluctantly, for Hillary. Of the remaining 40%, I think you're going to see them split between Trump and Gary Johnson. Those numbers may change if Hillary selects a clear progressive for VP - Elizabeth Warren would push that number up to 70%, but I think Warren'd be unlikely to do so. However, there are a few others who would tilt the balance. In a way, going with a more conservative VP would prove counterproductive - despite being fairly liberal herself, Clinton's perception has made her into the centrist candidate already. At the same time, I see a fair number of Republicans voting for Clinton because they dislike both Trump and are nervous about Gary Johnson. Clinton has held back against Sanders because she doesn't want to alienate his followers, but once she faces Trump with a secure nomination she can go for the jugular.

Superdelegates switched in 2008 because Obama ended up with more pledged delegates. This year, Clinton will end up with more pledged delegates (by a margin greater than Obama's margin in 2008).

But, yes, the convention could meet the definition of "contested" simply by virtue of Sanders not conceding. However, the convention definitely won't be brokered (i.e., Clinton will easily top 2383 on the first vote). So, what would contesting the convention accomplish?

And superdelegates: please do what is riught for the party, and support the one candidate who is sure to win from Trump: nominate Bernie Sanders. The establishment tried to stop Bernie, and couldn't. That should tell you how much potential Sanders has. That same establishment tried to coronate Clinton, and couldn't. That's how weak a candidate she is.

Feel the Bern.

Right?

...will likely win in an electoral college landslide.

Clinton supporters always expect a big fight. Since the 90's. We will fight and fight the opposition until we prevail.