2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIn WA's primary today Hillary has won all the largest counties, and is doing well
overall, too.
With more than 650,000 votes counted, she's leading by more than 7%.
In the March caucuses, about 230,000 voters participated and Bernie won about 3 to 1.
This happened in 2008, too. She lost by more than 36% to Obama in the caucuses, but a few weeks later she lost by less than 6% in the primary.
http://www.king5.com/elections
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)chascarrillo
(3,897 posts)You can't look at the result of a primary that doesn't count for anything and draw any meaningful inference from it.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)which represents voters? which is more accurate?
the rules say the caucus decides the delegates, but it doesn't sound like the primary voters feel the same way as the caucus voters.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)I was one of 3 in my family who went to a caucus here in WA, 3 of us didn't.
Every one who is a registered voter here in the state got a ballot.
Boxes are at every library or vote by mail.
So everyone had a chance to vote by ballot.
Unlike in March when many didn't have 3 hours to devote to sitting in a hot crowded room, running out of ballots
.
This is the way WA votes and will vote in November. Elections are decided in King county ( and my county Pierce)
the 2 largest. Seattle area usually puts a democrat over the top.
The last GOP governor was John Spellman a more liberal environmentalist.(80-84).
Every Gov has been Democrat since, every election since 84 has been for democrats.
Senators have been democrats since we dumped Slate Gordon in 2000.
Theres your very short history of Wa votes.
strategery blunder
(4,225 posts)I spent four days caucusing for Bernie.
I knew the primary was meaningless. As recently as yesterday I was like "my ballot isn't where I thought it was, fuckit."
Literally the ONLY reason why I bothered to dig it out of the Pile o' Junk Mail this morning is because I knew the clueless punditry would try to puff up the primary to actually have significance, especially if Hillary won (which our craven supers would then point to).
I'm probably not the only Bernie supporter who thought, "Didn't I just do this shit?"
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)CreekDog
(46,192 posts)timmymoff
(1,947 posts)Sanders gets the delegates. It's the math. It's the math.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)voted strongly to replace the caucuses with primaries, and the party went to court to retain the caucuses.
Even though they result in a very skewed outcome compared to the much more inclusive primary.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)It's the math. It's the math.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Like in Arizona.
But people who are crowing about his WA state victory don't realize how unrepresentative it is.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)It's true that in WA the caucus counts; the primary doesn't. I think that's beyond bizarre for many reasons, but there it is. Unlike Sanders, nobody is suing over it. Bernie does love his lawsuits.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)but she will combat all this later. Can I interest you in a bridge for sale?
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)When you repeat the boring, tired old memes, lobbyists, super pacs, etc. You forgot establishment third way Republican Light! Get with the program or people will mock you!
And it's "lobbyists," not "lobbyist's." At least get your spelling right. Also, super pacs.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)Very low voter turnout for the primary. Only 28%. Older people vote for Hillary and don't go to caucuses. It makes sense that they would vote in the primary, but the younger people don't bother with the primary because the earlier caucus already decided the delegate distribution.
If you only had a primary, Bernie probably would have won that, but with a smaller percentage.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)conducted here, except for the 230K vote caucus and the 660K vote primary.
And the super delegates have made it known that they would be taking the results of the primary seriously -- so any Bernie voters who didn't bother to stick their ballot in the mail made a mistake.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)I said, and I believe, based on the numbers, the low voter turnout, and the reality of your double system, that Bernie probably would have won a primary, if that's all you had.
The super delegates will vote the way they want to vote. Neither you nor I can determine how that will happen. But they've pretty much shown whose side they are on.
If it turns out at the brokered convention that Bernie is leading because super delegates switch to him in states where he won the vote but she already had the supers...well the supers usually end up going with the winner. They may not in this case, but it will be a first.
It will be an interesting brokered convention, that's for sure.
But keep your head up pnwmom...Hillary might still win. After all,
http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2016/03/29/23877594/washington-superdelegates-still-endorsing-clinton-spurning-pro-bernie-majority-of-state-voters
Yes, they sure didn't go with the popular vote in the caucus, did they? The whole damn election has been rigged from day one because of the establishment trying to block out Bernie. They don't care about the popular vote, they only care about Hillary winning. Nice!
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)with only 75% counted. The turnout in the primary was NOT low.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)Oregon primary got 36% turnout (which I still think is low), but we don't have a caucus to screw things up.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)Of course the caucus had a much lower turnout. That is to be expected. That does not negate a thing I said.
And when I looked at Washington State.gov and the voting info, when it said 28% turnout, it also said all votes had been counted except for write-ins.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)Bernie might still win the majoirty vote!
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)You don't get 73% on the votes of small counties alone.
And if there was anything exclusive about the way the caucuses were run, that was solely the fault of the party regulars. Bernie and his supporters did nothing to make those caucuses exclusive.
Sanders has won a LOT of primaries this year, and many of the losses he had in primaries were by wafer-thing margins. So it's bogus to claim that only HRC can win primaries.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Sanders won 11/13 caucuses, but Hillary won many more primaries, both open and closed.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)HRC is winning this largely because the delegates have been chosen and this primary is meaningless.
Please stop acting as if the Sanders campaign is anti-primary and pro-caucus. We didn't design the caucus structure, and you would be insisting the results of the caucuses were legitimate if your candidate had prevailed in them.
The caucuses are not a Sanders plot somehow imposed on the party.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)caucus and primary results here can be very different. Outsider candidates do much better here in caucuses.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)and a primary where nothing was at stake.
Face it, Bernie's caucus win in Washington is just as valid as HRC's in Iowa and Nevada.
And if you don't like caucuses(most Sanders supporters don't actually like them, either), blame the party regulars. The Sanders campaign didn't impose caucuses on the party against its will.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)And I do blame the party regulars. You're right about that.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)He's been running close to HRC in the national preference polls since this began.
You have no reason to treat his campaign as illegitimate. Nothing bad has come of Bernie pushing the party to actually be progressive.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)I think he should acknowledge that the caucus system has heavily benefited him. And it is "rigged" against average voters who don't have the time or inclination to spend hours in caucuses.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)This result happened because the Sanders campaign is putting more effort into contests where delegates are being chosen than in a meaningless, non-binding contest.
Probably just as many young Sanders people were excluded from caucus participation because they had to watch their kids or go to work or had classes that day(there are a lot of Saturday classes at universities in Washington state).
And probably a lot of union people(most of whom are pro-Sanders)were also excluded for the same reason.
There's no reason to hold a non-binding primary after the delegates have already been chosen.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)But he only won by less than 6%, compared to winning by 36% in the caucuses.
msongs
(67,421 posts)general this fall lol
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Your side is largely winning in WA tonight because the Sanders people are working in states where delegates are at stake.
If delegates had been in play in this primary, the Sanders campaign would have been far more active.
There really isn't any reason to have a caucus AND a preference primary in the same state. It should be on or the other.
What happened in WA tonight does not delegitimize the caucus results at all.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)msongs
(67,421 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)when the delegates have already been chosen.
If more actually preferred HRC, that would have shown up in the polling at caucus time. None of the polls taken in WA at that point showed HRC even close to Bernie...and there was no way for the Sanders campaign to rig the opinion polls.
Sad that you are so spiteful towards the ONLY progressive candidate in the race. What did Bernie ever do to you?
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)non-representative caucuses.
Where were those WA state polls you are talking about? They're not listed anywhere that i've been able to find. It's rare to have political polls conducted here because the caucus system makes it so hard to predict and we're a relatively small state, population-wise.
538 doesn't list any WA state polls.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And the caucus result in Washington is just as legitimate as the caucus result in Iowa.
It's silly to play the "our wins count, yours don't" game.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)switched to primaries long ago.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The difference in margins is stunning. Clinton really should petition for more delegates from Washington.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)Maybe you can get them to make that brilliant move. They love to do stupid things.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)It's called being democratic.
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)is equal to what the party chose. Remember it's the party, isn't that the mantra? Or did that change again this week?
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Sanders supporters always are petitioning for rules changes. I realize the the caucus rules allocate the delegates and that can't be changed, but it's still a poor system.
TwilightZone
(25,472 posts)And after tens of thousands of them joined the wrong party?
Yeah, that was pretty stupid.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And there's no reason to see Washington's caucus result as rigged but argue that Iowa's wasn't.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)that people would be unhappy with the caucus system, once they saw it in action.
All caucuses are "rigged" to be less representative and inclusive, with more power for the state party.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Your argument here is with the party, not us.
The Washington caucus result is just as legitimate as the Iowa caucus result.
We've had caucuses for decades.
All that happened this year is that they went for the progressive candidate against the status quo candidate you prefer. That's all that occurred.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)way of choosing delegates, and I don't think ANY of the caucuses should be retained. They are a remnant of the "smoke-filled rooms" we used to have before most of the country switched to primaries.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)pnwmom
(108,980 posts)to attend our first caucus. I couldn't persuade my husband to ever try another one, till this year.
And then when they had the nerve to pass out the envelopes to get us to help pay for it . . . .
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)No more messes like this.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Nothing would be better for anyone but the rich if HRC had faced no opposition.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Can't have both at the same time.
How about we just skip the primary process altogether and go back to pre-68, where the party apparatchiks could just pick who they wanted to run? That'd suit you and yours just fine, I think.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Rigged against anyone who is working when they're going on, rigged against anyone who doesn't have transportation to get to them, etc, etc.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)is that the progressive candidate did better than the status quo candidate in most of them.
If it weren't for that, virtually none of the people who are denouncing caucuses in this cycle would be doing to.
The hypocrisy on this issue is what bothers me.
I fully agree that we shouldn't have caucuses. But I think we'd have had essentially the same results in each state if we hadn't.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)in 1989. This has nothing to do with the fact that Bernie did well in them.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)SpareribSP
(325 posts)floppyboo
(2,461 posts)downticket candidates are in play. Anyone got info on that? That would motivate me - not re-voting for a winner.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)set up a primary years ago. So now our taxes are still paying for the primary we wanted (which the Rethugs are using), but we're still stuck with caucuses.
So we vote to show the primary should go forward.
And others vote in the primary because it's much harder to vote in the caucuses, and they can have the feeling of participation by voting in the primary -- even if no delegates are assigned.
And some are newcomers to the state who don't understand that the primary here is a "beauty contest."
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)Not necessarily you, but others, is that your claim? Sounds like taking your ball and going home. Heard that somewhere before.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)and don't want to have to debate politics with their neighbors (or husbands, or employers). And the party makes it very hard to vote by affidavit.
For example, not having childcare isn't a valid reason for voting by affidavit. Neither is being an out-of-state college student. Neither is living hours away from your county caucus location.
By contrast, the primary uses a simple, mail-in ballot. And many more people participate.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And the party regulars in WA are staunchly anti-Bernie, so it's not as though they were colluding with us.
Most of us, whoever we support, would prefer primaries to caucuses.
And Bernie would have run strongly in an all-primary process too. None of his victories are illegitimate.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)But, since he got most of his wins in caucus states, why do you think he would have done as well in an all-primary system?
Hillary won most of the primaries, including all but 4 of the open primaries.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)Is that the state dem party? Who lets them continue against the will of the people? That sounds really sucky for you guys. What a waste of tax money.
How do you change that? Looks like you've done lots already with the referendum, and they aren't cheap either.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)and persuaded a judge to overrule it, arguing that the party was a private organization and could use whatever method it wanted to assign its delegates.
So now we're stuck paying for the state primary (that only the Rethugs use) but having it be only a "beauty contest."
I don't know what else we can do except continue to put pressure on the state party. When they passed out the envelopes to help defray the costs of the caucuses, I sure let them know what I thought of that.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)floppyboo
(2,461 posts)senate seats? This is truly fucked if the caucus thing was voted down in a referendum just so - I still don't get what this has to do with the republicans and their primaries if it is a democratic state party decision.
What's up with that?
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)This was held by law. The party decided they wanted an earlier date and the DNC agreed. They held a caucus in March.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)pnwmom
(108,980 posts)and make sure our ballots were included.
Laser102
(816 posts)pnwmom
(108,980 posts)with time on their hands -- because participation in a caucus requires at least a few hours of time, unless you're someone chosen to go to the next level (in which you could find your participation turning into days. )
It is not a representative group of voters.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Did you vote today or did you mail it in?
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)NWCorona
(8,541 posts)My partner mailed hers in but I can procrastinate a bit!
Congratulations on the win!
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/07/washington-state-will-have-2016.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Even though it isn't binding.
What does that tell you about those voters?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)I would not have bothered in a beauty contest
But they will be targeted for the GE
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)MANY people had circumstances that prevented their voting in the caucuses, and it's very difficult to vote by affadavit here. For example, if you live in a rural area a few hours away from your caucus -- tough. No absentee voting allowed. Or if you want a secret ballot. Or if you're an out of state college student. Or if you don't have childcare and don't want to bring your children with you for a few hours of caucusing.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)TwilightZone
(25,472 posts)The hundreds of thousands of Clinton supporters who voted?
Or the hundreds of thousands of Sanders supporters who voted?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)so I do guess people did get the memo
It is confusing as hell. But it is what it is. For the record I prefer primaries
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)and that showing up to vote for her tonight would somehow help her.
If HRC had won the caucuses(as she did narrowly in Iowa and Nevada)her supporters would all be shouting "the people have spoken".
You can't question one caucus result without questioning them all.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)replace the antiquated, messy, unrepresentative caucuses with a primary system. But the party went to court and got a judge to rule it could continue to assign delegates through the caucuses.
Then, to add insult to injury? We have to pay for the primary with our taxes -- but in the caucuses they pass out envelopes and ask for donations to defray the costs of the caucuses that we voted to END.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)IMO, caucuses reflect active voters who are informed. Bless caucus activists.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)They didn't do polls in WA so the only information we have is that the primary with almost 3 times as many participants yielded a different result.
So the super delegates are free to decide which of the contests they think better represents the will of the voters. And they will be on solid ground if they choose the primary.
That doesnt include the states 17 Democratic superdelegates, who are not bound by the primary vote. Most of the superdelegates, including Gov. Jay Inslee and U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, have endorsed Clinton, angering many Sanders backers, who say the superdelegates should back the caucus winner.
Todd Donovan, a professor of political science at Western Washington University, said the results could lead to more talk of whether caucuses are the best way to pick presidential favorites in the state. They really kind of distort reality, he said, adding that primaries are probably a better snapshot.
About 230,000 Democrats participated in the March precinct caucuses. As of Tuesday, more than 660,000 Democratic votes had been counted in the primary.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/wash-primary1/
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Imagine how many people didn't vote by paper and stamp. I didn't. Many I hang with didn't. Why should we?
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)and it is likely other supers felt that way, too, anyone who cared about the outcome of the 17 super delegate votes should have voted in the primary.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)The primary is less meaningful than spending a half hour at dinnertime with a telephone pollster.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)that they were waiting for the outcome of the primary to make final decisions on who they would vote for in the convention.
And since three times as many Dems voted in the primary as in the caucuses, those results are a much better reflection of the views of WA state voters.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)pnwmom
(108,980 posts)they would decide after the primary.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)Only 3 in March. This is the way to vote.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)It's positively archaic that they still exist. If Sanders is soooo concerned about voter suppression, he should call for the elimination of caucuses. They are undemocratic.
Here's more proof why caucuses disenfranchise far too many people.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)Her vote very slim given the delegate race over in WA. But think about all the so-called blue leaders we have that are going Clinton anyway. Too bad Sawant isn't an SD.
Buzz cook
(2,473 posts)Still don't have a problem with caucus, even though I didn't get to be a delegate this time.
UtahLib
(3,179 posts)lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)I voted Sanders during the caucus so I didn't return my primary ballot since it's meaningless.
I have no doubt that the party apparatchiks will change the system next time 'round to guarantee that the voters support the person that the superdelegates have chosen.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)before making their final decisions on who to vote for.
And those primary voters will be listened to.