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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI Usually Look At Aggregates But A +2 Poll For O In FL And A -6 Poll At The Same Time Is Odd
That's a eight point difference. I hope the former is right.
+6, really...
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I Usually Look At Aggregates But A +2 Poll For O In FL And A -6 Poll At The Same Time Is Odd (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2012
OP
Yeah, All The Other Pollster Are Indicating A Much Tighter Race Than Mason Dixon In FL/nt
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2012
#3
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)1. Huh? The differential is -4 (+6 in OH, +2 in FL). nt
smorkingapple
(827 posts)2. He means mason Dixon and NBC/wsj polls of FL
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)3. Yeah, All The Other Pollster Are Indicating A Much Tighter Race Than Mason Dixon In FL/nt
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)6. M/D is an outlier. Has trouble polling Latinos.
Very well could be that it's actually Romney +1, which would make the NBC poll still much closer.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)4. The chief complaint about M=D +6 Mitt in FL is they under counted non-Cuban hispanics
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)5. TY
South Florida is home to many Cubans, Venezuelans, and Brazilians. Central Florida is home to many Dominicans and Puerto Ricans. That seems to be an an easy sample problem to avoid. Just ask them their nationality in addition to their racial identification. And make sure your regional sub samples are correct.
fugop
(1,828 posts)7. Someone else pointed out sample size.
Can't be sure but I think MD was 600, vs. maybe 1,200 for Marist?