it either happens or it doesn't

You think that makes your odds 50/50?

just way less likely but either it happens or it doesn't

50/50 is a specific probability distribution, it is not mere shorthand for "it either happens or it doesn't".

right now the odds that I will continue to discuss this nerdy topic stand at around 2%

So there's a chance! I either will post again about it or I won't. I'll keep you updated. Or maybe I won't. Who knows!

...but there are plenty of real people out there in the world who just don't get the idea of probability and statistics. Confusing will/will not happen with 50/50 is a common hallmark of that lack of understanding.

I just like saying that and the response is always the same from the math geeks. Fun times.
Pretty much know all about odds. By the way that 2% just happened.

get the bottom line, anyway.

Like you, I'm anxious for Tuesday ... (or Wednesday - god hope not!)

But as said above we are not at 100% (not going to get their either due to statistics) so... GOTV.

oh wait...never mind.

100 years from now people will be dressing up and refighting Benghazi on Fox News. The grandchildren will hear the stories while gathered around the fireplace.