2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNeck-and-Neck in California as Sanders Virtually Erases 50-Point Deficit
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/05/26/neck-and-neck-california-sanders-virtually-erases-50-point-deficitNew poll shows Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in statistical tie less than two weeks before California's Democratic primary
Less than two weeks before California's critical Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are locked in a dead heat in that state, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The same poll (pdf) shows Sanders outperforming Clinton in a hypothetical match-up against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
The survey, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), shows that among Democratic primary likely voters, 46 percent support Clinton and 44 percent support Sanders. Sanders leads Clinton among those who are very liberal (64% to 35%) as well as among younger voters (66% to 27%). Latino voters are slightly more likely to support Clinton (52% to 43%), while white voters are more divided (47% Clinton, 41% Sanders).
(sinp)
As Politico notes, a Sanders victory on June 7 would create "an awkward situation for Clinton, who could be celebrating being dubbed the 'presumptive nominee' even as she loses the nation's largest stateand one of its most diverse."
amborin
(16,631 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)How? How can he stop her from getting 78 delegates? How? This is pure fantasy.
Corporate666
(587 posts)I can bet on double zero ten times in a row when playing roulette and win every time.
It's theoretically possible.
Does that mean it could happen in actuality? No.
Can Bernie win in actuality? No.
But if you prefer to operate on practical impossibilities... then O'Malley can win the nomination.
BootinUp
(47,156 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)She needs 78 delegates from June 7......
The SECOND she has them she is the presumptive nominee no matter if Bernie wins or not. He'd need to beat her with nearly 100 percent of all delegates and supers to steal the nom. Time to move on, it's ovah.
cali
(114,904 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)No, he was not.
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Besides, Hillary will have the nomination sewn up when the polls close in NJ well before they close in CA. CA would just be icing on the cake. Toss in DC and PR and Bernie will be only a dot in her rearview mirror.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)also they are using the superdelegates added to the count, which they are not supposed to.
Neither will get it.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Where is the rulebook and where does it say what one is "supposed" to do in these cases?
It may come as a shock to some, but no delegates vote before the convention. And when they vote, the super delegates get just as much say as the rest of the delegates.
This fabricated system where super delegates shouldn't be counted is pure fantasy. I wonder if the people parroting it realize that the super delegates will be at the convention and will be voting on the first ballot?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)as much as I dislike her, she was correct when she told media to cut that shit up
Here you go
<iframe width="630" height="354" src="
They really do not count, until they vote... at the convention
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)Almost as scary as the FBI.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)How much more "awkward" would it be for Clinton than it was for Obama 8 years ago?
This place is a fantasyland.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)about as informational as your post.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Not Sanders country to say the least. Sorry.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)gravityspy
(28 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)They ended at the same time. This one started a week earlier.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Unless you think that Sanders is heavily winning African Americans and Asians, but losing among whites and Latinos?
Not happening.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)There aren't enough Asian Americans and other assorted demographics to overcome being behind in the largest groups. Those numbers don't add up at all.
MADem
(135,425 posts)LOL!
Here's an opposing point of view:
http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/
HILLARY CLINTON POISED TO DEFEAT BERNIE SANDERS IN CALIFORNIA'S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, SURVEYUSA POLL SHOWS
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)552.
Outlier poll with a dash of mathematical "impossibilities" thrown into the mix.
MADem
(135,425 posts)dana_b
(11,546 posts)it becomes another NY or Az type thing where people are disenfranchised and/or thrown off of the voter rolls.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Show our Secretary of State Debra Bowen your proof of voter disenfranchisement in the Golden State where it concerns Bernie Sanders. She'd sure appreciate seeing the proof of what you say.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)BernieMath(tm)
beardown
(363 posts)19 pct - 69 pct down 50 pct
25 pct swing between two candidates which leaves us with...
44 pct - 44 pct tied and made up 50 pct deficit.
When you use flawed math to insult another Democractic party presidential candidate's 'math' you can easily wind up making yourself not only look more like a candidate's reality blinded worshiper, instead of supporter , but an ignorant to boot.
Just ask the question without the BernieMath crap. You'll look less like a fool if you happen to have made a simple math mistake and it's better for party unity after the primaries are over.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)That's disingenuous.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total
Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9
"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.
The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.
538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.
Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf
BootinUp
(47,156 posts)dana_b
(11,546 posts)poll workers are being trained wrong and told to give NPP provisional ballots which is WRONG