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Ferd Berfel

(3,687 posts)
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:11 PM May 2016

Neck-and-Neck in California as Sanders Virtually Erases 50-Point Deficit

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/05/26/neck-and-neck-california-sanders-virtually-erases-50-point-deficit

New poll shows Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in statistical tie less than two weeks before California's Democratic primary

Less than two weeks before California's critical Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are locked in a dead heat in that state, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The same poll (pdf) shows Sanders outperforming Clinton in a hypothetical match-up against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The survey, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), shows that among Democratic primary likely voters, 46 percent support Clinton and 44 percent support Sanders. Sanders leads Clinton among those who are very liberal (64% to 35%) as well as among younger voters (66% to 27%). Latino voters are slightly more likely to support Clinton (52% to 43%), while white voters are more divided (47% Clinton, 41% Sanders).

(sinp)

As Politico notes, a Sanders victory on June 7 would create "an awkward situation for Clinton, who could be celebrating being dubbed the 'presumptive nominee' even as she loses the nation's largest state—and one of its most diverse."
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Neck-and-Neck in California as Sanders Virtually Erases 50-Point Deficit (Original Post) Ferd Berfel May 2016 OP
Yes! Bernie can Win California and the Nomination!!!!!!!! amborin May 2016 #1
No he CAN'T! bravenak May 2016 #5
define "can" Corporate666 May 2016 #26
lol nt BootinUp May 2016 #33
The race will be called for Hillary the secong the polls close bravenak May 2016 #2
If he wins, that points to serious weakness in the general election cali May 2016 #25
She beat Obama in CA last time, was Obama weak in the GE? bravenak May 2016 #27
+1 onenote May 2016 #40
You do realize that other polls yesterday had Hillary up by significant numbers, don't you? tonyt53 May 2016 #3
That explains the trolls' efforts to say "it's over" every 5 minutes. arcane1 May 2016 #4
Yes it does - You WIN! Ferd Berfel May 2016 #6
They are desperate and it is obvious nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #9
"not supposed to"???? Corporate666 May 2016 #28
You should go have that argument with DWS nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #30
Yes, it does. They live in fear of losing California RufusTFirefly May 2016 #10
CA will be fun, in an evil way nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #31
Bernie!! AzDar May 2016 #7
Even if Sanders were to win CA LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #8
It Ain't over, till it's over Ferd Berfel May 2016 #11
Non-answer LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #15
California is 46% non-white KingFlorez May 2016 #12
Here is a new poll. hrmjustin May 2016 #13
Lol, that Poll is old news from Monday. The op just told you about the latest poll gravityspy May 2016 #16
Taken in the last few days. hrmjustin May 2016 #18
The SurveyUSA poll is newer data. TwilightZone May 2016 #23
Clinton up 6 with Whites, 9 with Latinos, and only up 2 in the state? The internals don't compute. CrowCityDem May 2016 #14
There are other breakdowns and demographics in California than just those two n/t arcane1 May 2016 #17
80% of CA is white and Latino. There isn't enough left in the other 20% to get to +2. TwilightZone May 2016 #24
Those groups, along with AAs, make up nearly 90% of the state. CrowCityDem May 2016 #29
The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points. MADem May 2016 #19
Plus the polling sample is.. LenaBaby61 May 2016 #34
It's click bait, and a great "It Could Happen" lead-in for a 24 hour news station. nt MADem May 2016 #36
He will win California UNLESS... dana_b May 2016 #20
Please, by all means .... LenaBaby61 May 2016 #32
How is getting to 44% "erases 50-Point Deficit" scscholar May 2016 #21
I assume it's math. beardown May 2016 #37
So you're counting every vote who switches, twice scscholar May 2016 #38
That poll has some obvious math errors. TwilightZone May 2016 #22
I Still Predict Hillary +10 to 15 nt. BootinUp May 2016 #35
Btw - NPP voters need to ask for a Democratic ballot dana_b May 2016 #39

Corporate666

(587 posts)
26. define "can"
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:47 PM
May 2016

I can bet on double zero ten times in a row when playing roulette and win every time.

It's theoretically possible.

Does that mean it could happen in actuality? No.

Can Bernie win in actuality? No.

But if you prefer to operate on practical impossibilities... then O'Malley can win the nomination.

 

bravenak

(34,648 posts)
2. The race will be called for Hillary the secong the polls close
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:16 PM
May 2016

She needs 78 delegates from June 7......
The SECOND she has them she is the presumptive nominee no matter if Bernie wins or not. He'd need to beat her with nearly 100 percent of all delegates and supers to steal the nom. Time to move on, it's ovah.

 

tonyt53

(5,737 posts)
3. You do realize that other polls yesterday had Hillary up by significant numbers, don't you?
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:16 PM
May 2016

Besides, Hillary will have the nomination sewn up when the polls close in NJ well before they close in CA. CA would just be icing on the cake. Toss in DC and PR and Bernie will be only a dot in her rearview mirror.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
9. They are desperate and it is obvious
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM
May 2016

also they are using the superdelegates added to the count, which they are not supposed to.

Neither will get it.

Corporate666

(587 posts)
28. "not supposed to"????
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:49 PM
May 2016

Where is the rulebook and where does it say what one is "supposed" to do in these cases?

It may come as a shock to some, but no delegates vote before the convention. And when they vote, the super delegates get just as much say as the rest of the delegates.

This fabricated system where super delegates shouldn't be counted is pure fantasy. I wonder if the people parroting it realize that the super delegates will be at the convention and will be voting on the first ballot?

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
30. You should go have that argument with DWS
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:51 PM
May 2016

as much as I dislike her, she was correct when she told media to cut that shit up

Here you go

<iframe width="630" height="354" src="

" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

They really do not count, until they vote... at the convention

LoverOfLiberty

(1,438 posts)
8. Even if Sanders were to win CA
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM
May 2016

How much more "awkward" would it be for Clinton than it was for Obama 8 years ago?

This place is a fantasyland.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
24. 80% of CA is white and Latino. There isn't enough left in the other 20% to get to +2.
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:41 PM
May 2016

Unless you think that Sanders is heavily winning African Americans and Asians, but losing among whites and Latinos?

Not happening.

 

CrowCityDem

(2,348 posts)
29. Those groups, along with AAs, make up nearly 90% of the state.
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:50 PM
May 2016

There aren't enough Asian Americans and other assorted demographics to overcome being behind in the largest groups. Those numbers don't add up at all.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
19. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points.
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:28 PM
May 2016

LOL!

Here's an opposing point of view:

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/

HILLARY CLINTON POISED TO DEFEAT BERNIE SANDERS IN CALIFORNIA'S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, SURVEYUSA POLL SHOWS

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)
34. Plus the polling sample is..
Thu May 26, 2016, 06:07 PM
May 2016

552.

Outlier poll with a dash of mathematical "impossibilities" thrown into the mix.

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
20. He will win California UNLESS...
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:28 PM
May 2016

it becomes another NY or Az type thing where people are disenfranchised and/or thrown off of the voter rolls.

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)
32. Please, by all means ....
Thu May 26, 2016, 06:01 PM
May 2016

Show our Secretary of State Debra Bowen your proof of voter disenfranchisement in the Golden State where it concerns Bernie Sanders. She'd sure appreciate seeing the proof of what you say.

beardown

(363 posts)
37. I assume it's math.
Thu May 26, 2016, 06:10 PM
May 2016

19 pct - 69 pct down 50 pct
25 pct swing between two candidates which leaves us with...
44 pct - 44 pct tied and made up 50 pct deficit.

When you use flawed math to insult another Democractic party presidential candidate's 'math' you can easily wind up making yourself not only look more like a candidate's reality blinded worshiper, instead of supporter , but an ignorant to boot.

Just ask the question without the BernieMath crap. You'll look less like a fool if you happen to have made a simple math mistake and it's better for party unity after the primaries are over.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
22. That poll has some obvious math errors.
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:30 PM
May 2016

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
39. Btw - NPP voters need to ask for a Democratic ballot
Thu May 26, 2016, 06:12 PM
May 2016

poll workers are being trained wrong and told to give NPP provisional ballots which is WRONG

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