2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumATTN!! if a candidate cannot win the primary / caucus they are running in
There is no way they would ever win the general election.. simple fact..
EDIT TO ADD:.. I am talking about the primary/caucus season of all 50 states.. I just assumed wrongly .. that was understood.. mea culpa.. but it is SEASON..covers all 50 states.. and territories.. soon to be ended.. season..
Kall
(615 posts)is a more electable candidate than John Kasich, then.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)Outside of Ohio what did he win? By the way.. Kasich is no bowl of cherries himself..
Kall
(615 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Just like Bernie did. Try not to be so obtuse.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)significantly than that in the primaries.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)then there is no way they can win a GE..
randome
(34,845 posts)I'm confused.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)I would hope to hell he would win..
Edit to add... who ever wins the nomination is the one the party thinks has the best option of winning the general.. if you do not win, then everything else is speculation of what might have been..
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)Not true. Whoever wins the nomination is (typically) the one who got the most votes in the primaries. It does not say anything about which candidate would have had the best chance of winning the general.
There aren't too many people who think that, of all the Republican candidates, Trump would be the one with the best chance of winning the general... but here we are.
Primaries are different contests from the generals... the candidates are different, and the voting pool is different.
When people go to the polls, they are generally voting for who they want to be president, not necessarily who they think would have the best chance of winning in November, which is a different question. *Some* people go into the voting booth with GE electability foremost in mind, but certainly not everyone.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)As of this point in time..you have three parties that will be able to be on the ballot in all 50 states.. Democratic, Republican and Libertairan.. they each have a candidate who won their respective party.. the how does someone who has not won one of those three positions.. came in second or third in their party.. win the GE?
whistler162
(11,155 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Your interpretation differs from others.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
Broward
(1,976 posts)Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)wins the GE?
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Also note that your theory is in general non-falsifiable, which makes it a very poor theory indeed.
But forgive me for butting into GDP with logic of all things.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)you have a republican candidate. and a Democratic candidate .. and a libertarian candidate.. (those are the three parties playing in all 50 states) and another person who has not won their party.. wins the GE?? how??
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)P.S. Wikipedia may help you here.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)as most third parties do .. they sink on of the two main parties.. and again how do you run someone now ..the states are closed.. they cannot pull off a bull moose..
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)The entire point of my post is that your "simple fact" has an obvious counterexample and is therefore bullshit.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)this in 2016.. all the states are pretty much closed now.. you have three parties who are viable in all 50 states.. you have three candidates.. and then how does someone who did not win one of those three parties ..end up winning the GE??
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)I see a LOT and I mean a LOT of ops blaming one side or the other for the future failure of the Democratic Party to Donald Trump.
Truth be told.. If a candidate does not win the caucus primary season of the party they are running in .. in no way will be able to win the GE.. there will be another candidate running..only three parties are on all 50 state ballots as of today May 26, 2016.. many states are closed now.. a fourth party could not get on the ballot.. so a person who does not win his or her primary season does not have a chance to win the GE.. so blaming the other side if GOD forbid we did lose makes no sense
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Primaries have a vastly different turnout model than general elections, as well as different candidates; I don't see why you think the loser of a primary couldn't win the general.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)again.. it is may 26,2016,, only three parties are on the ballot in all 50 states.. the three parties will be running who ever wins their individual primary caucus season.. (except the Libertarians .. I do not know how they do theirs)...so how does someone who has not won their respective party.. then turn around and win the GE when they are not even on the ballots??
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Lost the Democratic primary in 2006; went on to win the General.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)and territories.. not a senate election.. again how does this work in the Presidential election.. this is what this forum is about..
it is may 26,2016,, only three parties are on the ballot in all 50 states.. the three parties will be running who ever wins their individual primary caucus season.. (except the Libertarians .. I do not know how they do theirs)...so how does someone who has not won their respective party.. then turn around and win the GE when they are not even on the ballots??
Recursion
(56,582 posts)And won the general election there in 2008.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)not one state..
Recursion
(56,582 posts)What you're saying is "the loser of all the primaries will not be on the ballot", which we all know. But that's not remotely what your OP says.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)I took it for granted people understood primary/caucuses.. to be the election season..
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)Care to link the rationale for this claim? Do you have a statistical analysis from past elections and the primaries before them? Love to see that! Sounds fascinating!
Wait a minute...you just pulled that out of your Opinion Hole, didn't you....
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)it is may 26,2016,, only three parties are on the ballot in all 50 states.. the three parties will be running who ever wins their individual primary caucus season.. (except the Libertarians .. I do not know how they do theirs)...so how does someone who has not won their respective party.. then turn around and win the GE when they are not even on the ballots??
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)It says primaries and caucuses. Those are the votes that helps decide the nominee along with Super Delegates. If you mean the candidate that wins the nomination then duh.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)that people understood primary caucus to be the season.. since I was not talking about a specific state election... but the broader election season.. perfect I ain't
larkrake
(1,674 posts)or do you think only half the dems vote in the general, none others? As close as Bernie is in this hostile party, it assures us he would win the general with the help of all other factions voting against trump. Hillary cant expect that because she is disliked, Bernie is universally loved, she is seen as the lesser of two evils
OR, if you mean he has to win the primary to be eligible for the general, you are correct;however, we voted for delegates, not the pres, so it is the Convention who alone can overturn using rules. It is not over until the convention, no matter how many delegates she has (without SGs) Given her on going, never ending problems, the unlikely could happen. I suspect the DNC will roll the dice with Hillary
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)it is may 26,2016,, only three parties are on the ballot in all 50 states.. the three parties will be running who ever wins their individual primary caucus season.. (except the Libertarians .. I do not know how they do theirs)...so how does someone who has not won their respective party.. then turn around and win the GE when they are not even on the ballots??
larkrake
(1,674 posts)Bernie could have done that as an Indie,anyone listening to Tom Hartman the last 12 yrs knew who Bernie was and his positions, so he would have gotten solid petitions in every state and probably should have- given that the DNC didnt help him in any way.( in fact tried to block him at every turn). Had Bernie done that, he would have 50 million votes by now, and both The RNC and the DNC would be chasing him down today.
Bernie didnt go indie because he didnt want to be a spoiler, He refuses to hand the nation to Republicans
Chan790
(20,176 posts)I guess we're not nominating anybody this election cycle.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)it is may 26,2016,, only three parties are on the ballot in all 50 states.. the three parties will be running who ever wins their individual primary caucus season.. (except the Libertarians .. I do not know how they do theirs)...so how does someone who has not won their respective party.. then turn around and win the GE when they are not even on the ballots??
Chan790
(20,176 posts)He's the only one of the 3 of Hillary, Trump and himself with positive approval ratings and he's the one that polls highest with independents. It's very much the irony that the primary process in our case...and possibly both cases...is going to yield the weaker GE candidate. As someone posting jokingly in my facebook feed..."Primary season combined for both parties will cost more than $3,000,000,000. There has to be a better way to find the worst people in America."
Hillary is a far worse GE candidate than Sanders...ironically because she's only popular within the Democratic party. It's the "pals with idiots" practice in effect...Hillary is supported by a majority of Democrats where that majority is wildly unpopular with the larger electorate. Likewise, Trump is supported by a majority of racist assholes where that majority is also wildly unpopular with the larger electorate. There's a near obligation for someone to run as an independent in this GE...because the person that does so, assuming they're the only major indie candidate...has a strong chance to win the GE over both of the losers nominated by the major parties.
If there was a legal and viable "None of the above" option in the GE that forced both parties to re-nominate and exclude the previous nominees...it would almost certainly win this election between Clinton and Trump.
I don't see a path to victory for Clinton that doesn't automatically cost us the WH in 2020 or destroy the electability of the party for a generation or more. That's not true of Sanders...choosing Clinton was the worst thing we could have done and her supporters should be ashamed of themselves.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)A philosophical opposition to HRC.. what I am talking about is just plain old how do you do it..
Lets say Bernie wins on the second ballot.. he is the official Democratic nominee.. now how does Hillary then go out and win the GE .. she doesn't.. there are only three parties who are on all 50 state ballots.. and many states are closed now..
It is also true if Hillary wins.. there is no way for Bernie to win the GE.. he could not get on all the state ballots.. would not have the state infrastructure.. etc etc..
larkrake
(1,674 posts)larkrake
(1,674 posts)losing does not justify silencing his supporters
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)Sec Clinton hasn't won the nomination.
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)she would ever win the GE..
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)now, who's has the larger part of the PDs, who is
also under FBI investigation.
Please, history buffs: When has that happened
before?
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)Either a loss in the GE or
a second Clinton impeachment.
WOW!
Peacetrain
(22,877 posts)Now Bernie is the official Democratic candidate.. explain to me how Hillary could then run and win the GE if she lost the primary caucus election season... and visa versa.. Hillary wins and Bernie loses..
it is may 26,2016,, only three parties are on the ballot in all 50 states.. the three parties will be running who ever wins their individual primary caucus season.. (except the Libertarians .. I do not know how they do theirs)...so how does someone who has not won their respective party.. then turn around and win the GE when they are not even on the ballots??
Chan790
(20,176 posts)The argument is that we should throw-over the candidate that looks likely to win the Democratic party (Clinton) and nominate the person that did not (Sanders) because they're the better GE candidate.
In that case...the person that won the party isn't on the ballot in any state. The person that lost the party is the actual nominee because the party gave it to them and ignored the outcomes of the primaries.
larkrake
(1,674 posts)an overturn at the convention does not void the eventual nominee. Primaries do not vote for Pres, they vote for delegates who can be overturned in extreme cases at conventions. It is a very stupid process.
We need to change to one person/ one vote but the 1% greatly fear that lack of control
We need term limits in congress to dig out the gophers who chew the roots of democracy, and play patty-cake with lobbyists
TSIAS
(14,689 posts)But it sounds like you said that a loser in the primary couldn't win the general. I believe that Hillary Clinton could have defeated John McCain in 2008, even though she was a loser in the primary.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)Generals and Primaries are very different animals with totally different rules and voters. It is totally possibly that a candidate might not win the nomination but would be stronger in the General. It's a comforting lie that the primary process always yields the most electable nominee. I am totally convinced Bernie would beat Trump. Hillary will have a much harder time. It's about matchups and who can appeal to independents.