He's likely to win without Ohio if he wins either Colorado, Virginia, or Florida, and other states that are not so "toss-uppy" fall as expected.

Shameless self-promotion:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251206141

Assuming that Obama gets New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Iowa

that Obama takes New Hampshire. Silver has this probability at 80%.

But he'd need all of them

Assuming NH, IA, WI

(2) Florida

(3) Colorado + Iowa + New Hampshire


Scenarios (1) and (3) assume he also wins Nevada and Wisconsin

The other Swing states have been seen as VA, NV, CO, IA, WI,and NH which account for 48 EVs. FL and OH represent 47 EVs...
Those in bold are all leaning Obama's way...

Eliminate Ohio from RCP's no toss ups map, and you still get 272 EV's.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Thanks for posting it!

Which is still possible, but the least likely of those on this list.

IA, NH, NV, CO, VA, WI are all winnable and showing leads for Obama.

FL is the one that remains up in the air.

I don't want those scummy republican governors and sec of state fucking with this anymore than they already have. And it would be a big middle finger to them if we could say, "look, we won despite all your corrupt efforts."

but there are SO many screw ups happening in Ohio right now with the voting/ballots that will continue through election day, it seems ripe for the repubs to contest all sorts of things.

I told my husband that I wouldn't be worried the least - everything shows Obama should win easily come Tues. It's just the corrupt shit the repub governors and their sec of states that are the only unknown for the outcome. That's why if Obama could be declared a winner Tuesday despite Ohio, would be a relief and gratifying that the rethugs efforts had been thwarted.

was a pretty sure thing but with all the vote stealing and vote destroying of ballots...one get worried..I think the same about Fl..

that many of us who went through the Kerry/Ohio debacle, know how it can be stolen, suppressed, and taken away.

You see it doesn't have to be one BIG theft or suppression. That's too obvious. What they do is pick a State, like Ohio or Florida, and launch 200 little schemes that take away a few thousand here or there, until it makes a difference. Remember Florida 2000? It was 3k votes difference? How many votes were lost because of the various County-based schemes that they employed?

They only caught ONE guy in Virginia throwing away Dem registrations. How many have been thrown away or destroyed in Ohio? In Florida? Colorado? that's their M.Om. A thousand small thefts, and Ohio seems like the epicenter this time.