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Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
Sat May 28, 2016, 12:19 PM May 2016

Dialing it Down

The primary season essentially ends in less than two weeks. Washington D.C. votes just after that which I think is a shame because they should vote right after New Hampshire, and not be last in the nation. I'm not saying what the Democratic candidates should not be discussing between now and then, or even before the Convention in July. I'm not convinced that Bernie Sanders can not still become our nominee either - though that's a real long shot. Of course he should keep competing. There are real issues that matter to America that need to be addressed more in the coming months, not less. Which issues remain front and center from here on out, and how they are framed, are still very much effected by the Democratic Primary contest that is still being waged.

What is clear to me now though are the possibilities, however one might rank their likelihood of playing out. Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. There is nothing about any real or imagined sense of self entitlement, any real or imagined recklessness regarding National Security matters, any real or imagined collusion with ruling class interests, or any real or imagined untrustworthiness about Hillary Clinton that makes her less qualified to be President of the United States of America, or more dangerous to the world in that role, than Donald Trump would be.

And there is nothing real or imagined about Bernie Sanders' "wild" prior record, real or imagined about his supposedly rigid ideological bent of mind, real or imagined about the implausibility of his platform, real or imagined about his cantankerous opposition to business as usual in either America or the Democratic Party, that would make him less qualified to be President of the United States than Donald Trump, with all that would entail.

But here is the real kicker for me. There is virtually nothing left that I or anyone else posting opinions on boards like this can do, unless it directly relates to fund raising and mobilizing partisan voters in the remaining primary states, to alter the trajectory and outcome of the Democratic Primary Contest. The only possible exception to that rule of thumb I can think of might be if you happen to be on close talking terms with one or more Democratic Super Delegates, if you honestly have their ear, and they personally value your opinions. Aside from that the forces are already in motion

I am not claiming that the future is cast in concrete. Essentially the reason why I do not rule out Bernie Sanders still winning the nomination is because there are significant balls in play and we do not know with certainty where they all will land. The Democratic Party has not been on the brink of nominating a Presidential nominee less popular than Hillary Clinton since the last time Harry Truman ran (yeah I know, he still won, but it's not a good strategy to go looking for that quality in a candidate). California happens to be the largest state in the Union, and a very influential one to boot, so any major repudiation of Hillary there (with it's large minority population and record of supporting her in the past) would leave a bad mark. But that wouldn't be enough to lose Hillary the nomination. That might only happen if the majority of Super Delegates become really fearful that the Party will go down in flames in November is she is our standard bearer.

And that could only happen if the fall out from the probes of her prior personal email server practice escalates dramatically beyond where things stand now, and if, as a result, support for Hilary in polls nationwide begins to really hemorrhage - with that reflected in the California vote and then unraveling further from there before the Democratic Convention convenes. I don't care how likely or unlikely anyone here thinks that scenario may be - our speculation doesn't matter nor, honestly, do our opinions on that anymore. That ball is now in play. It will either drift down lazily into an outfielders glove, or get picked up by an unexpected mighty gust of wind and carried outside of the ball park.

I won't be throwing any activist fuel onto that current brush fire (yup, I changed metaphors). All we tend to do here now when we get into it is get each other angry and divide us. We do not drive this story now, we only drive each other crazy by arguing over it. Either the media will aggressively pursue the email issue as a scandal now or it won't. And if they do try to either new dirt will be dug up or it won't. And even if more dirt emerges either enough of it will stick, and stick quickly enough, to make a difference on the nomination outcome, or it won't. Far as I'm concerned there isn't enough dirt in North America - nor any valid fears bout Hillary Clinton strong enough, for me not to fear a Trump Administration over hers.

Meanwhile I'll keep sending money to Bernie because, at the very least, I still want him out there discussing the issues that matter to me. And I'll stay tuned, knowing that they'll be wok to do during the Fall campaign at AND below the Presidential level.


19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Dialing it Down (Original Post) Tom Rinaldo May 2016 OP
Great post! K&R nt One of the 99 May 2016 #1
Thanks Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #2
Our (ahem) friends need our Love RobertEarl May 2016 #3
If Hillary steps aside, then a Sanders-Warren ticket is genius... Yurovsky May 2016 #4
Hillary will do the right thing RobertEarl May 2016 #5
I like both candidates, and I must do this ... Dem2 May 2016 #7
I thought it was very gracious and nicely said. nt Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #6
Yes, it was CorkySt.Clair May 2016 #8
It's hard to get a real discussion started on a thread like this Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #9
I will support the nominee. I've always said I would support the nominee. Warren DeMontague May 2016 #10
I'm kind of in the same place Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #11
I've been okay with voting for her in the general, the whole time. Warren DeMontague May 2016 #12
What's with this 'Hillary is OK'? RobertEarl May 2016 #13
Because the alternative is worse. Warren DeMontague May 2016 #15
I will vote but that's it....nothing more Armstead May 2016 #16
Bernie is our only alternative RobertEarl May 2016 #17
Giving up doesn't even enter into the equation Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #19
Naw -- THE BIG SHUTDOWN will come soon enough Armstead May 2016 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author silvershadow May 2016 #18

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
2. Thanks
Sat May 28, 2016, 01:04 PM
May 2016

I'm not for dialing back any passion, no matter what side any of us are on. I'm just pretty sure that we are way beyond any point now where a bunch of hard core activists going hard negative, either toward each other or toward whoever one still supports, has any useful impact whatsoever no matter how you slice it. Secretly no doubt we all still want to convert everyone but the trolls to our side (and maybe even some of them) - and anger is a disincentive toward any even tepid conversions. Our current battle lines are drawn and it's unlikely they're gonna change much before the convention. I'm sticking to my side but that doesn't mean I have to do so while glaring with my bayonet drawn.

I think we have reached full circle. The doubts that there are to be sown have already been sown and harvesting is on us. A little more fertilizer now ain't gonna make much difference. The final pitch is almost always best made as a positive one. If you have any hope of winning then you need to start laying the groundwork for those who weren't with you to begin to start to come around.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
3. Our (ahem) friends need our Love
Sat May 28, 2016, 03:23 PM
May 2016

Their Heroine is about to bow out of the race and it will be a crushing blow to their sensibilities as the man left standing will be the one they have been smearing all this time.

We should stand ready to forgive them for they knew not what they were doing.

Of course they shall repent and become Berned or they may never show their monikers on DU again. When they do repent and asked to be forgiven, we Berners shall exude the greatest Love we can muster and allow them some space.

But the days ahead will be hard for them from the top down for their dream is crushed and put off until someone like Warren is able to take up their banner 4 or 8 years from now.

Yurovsky

(2,064 posts)
4. If Hillary steps aside, then a Sanders-Warren ticket is genius...
Sat May 28, 2016, 03:34 PM
May 2016

And then Sen Warren could run in 2020 or 2024.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
5. Hillary will do the right thing
Sat May 28, 2016, 03:38 PM
May 2016

She will retire to spend more time with her family. And do it for the good of the party. Her last patriotic act.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
7. I like both candidates, and I must do this ...
Sat May 28, 2016, 03:59 PM
May 2016
Their Hero is about to bow out of the race and it will be a crushing blow to their sensibilities as the woman left standing will be the one they have been smearing all this time.


Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
9. It's hard to get a real discussion started on a thread like this
Sat May 28, 2016, 09:03 PM
May 2016

It doesn't fit neatly into any candidate dual box. it's not hopeful enough of his chances for most Bernie supporters nor concessionary enough for most Hillary supporters - and it doesn't really advance anyone's talking points. It has to be posted here in GD-P because of the subject matter, but there isn't very much common ground around here lately.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
10. I will support the nominee. I've always said I would support the nominee.
Sat May 28, 2016, 09:08 PM
May 2016

Here's the thing, though- if it turns out she has irreparably damaged herself with this email thing, in a totally avoidable fashion, due to her reflexive paranoia about privacy or trying to avoid disclosure requirements for whatever reason, she's fucked all of us, the party, the country, shit, the planet.

I think we have the right to be pissed, because we all know she pulled strings to make sure that the party by and large cleared the runway for her this cycle- does anyone honestly believe that short of O'Malley (Sanders, of course, was not beholden to entrenched party interests) there was NO ONE we could have put up in the primary process except maybe Jim Fucking Webb?

No, she wanted to take as few chances as possible, and that involved getting the entire party apparatus lined up ASAP with her as the "presumptive" nominee.

So now we're sort of stuck with her, and if it turns out she has a genuine problem due to the email situation, what then?

We could end up losing what ought to otherwise be an easy election victory over trump, because of her fuckup.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
11. I'm kind of in the same place
Sat May 28, 2016, 09:25 PM
May 2016

Lately my favorite phrase has been "It is what it is". For a long time, even while backing Bernie, I was emotionally inclined to support Hillary on this matter thinking "Yeah she screwed up this one, but not that badly. Sure she should have known better but hind sight is 20/20 and the Republicans are always out to get her trying to twist everything into the worst light possible." You see I remember how they viciously went after both her and Bill from day one also, and this entire "controversy" sure looked hyper partisan once again.

Now that we keep getting more details coming from less partisan sources it does look worse to me, and I'm someone who wanted to dismiss all this crap and just focus on policy differences instead. Some of the wounds Hilary is dealing with now are the result of cheap pot shots fired at her, but many are clearly self inflicted also, and a lot of those include ones suffered because of how she has managed it all after the fact. It didn't have to be this way, and if we end up with a President Trump in November in no small part because of this, yeah I'll be pissed to. But I believe she would make a far far better president than Trump for any number of reasons, and I'll work to convince others of that if she's our nominee no matter what happens next in this email saga.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
12. I've been okay with voting for her in the general, the whole time.
Sat May 28, 2016, 09:45 PM
May 2016

Even with the nasty, disappointingly lowbrow campaign she has waged through surrogates like Brock.

It's why I genuinely hope there isn't a big FBI shoe drop coming- I want her to win, and I also don't want her to enter the WH under a cloud.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
13. What's with this 'Hillary is OK'?
Sat May 28, 2016, 11:11 PM
May 2016

Look, the Clintons saw what bush got away with and they decided to cash in themselves. Hidden behind the obstruction of using a private server used to communicate with others outside of government, and hacked by foreigners, the Clintons did private business that brought in untold dollars.

And you two old time DUers sit there and say Hillary is fine to continue as the president? Have you no clues as to the truths?

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
15. Because the alternative is worse.
Sat May 28, 2016, 11:27 PM
May 2016

I don't pretend to want to tell other people what to do, but for me, I'm gonna vote for the Democratic nominee, like I do every 4 years.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
17. Bernie is our only alternative
Sat May 28, 2016, 11:31 PM
May 2016

Why some of you have given up, I know not why.

Hillary has broken the law and she must retire.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
19. Giving up doesn't even enter into the equation
Sun May 29, 2016, 03:48 AM
May 2016

I continue to urge any and all eligible voters to vote for Bernie before the convention if they still have an opportunity to do so (I already have). I continue to send what money I can to the Sanders campaign. I still expect all unpledged delegates (and that means Super Delegates) to take their responsibilities seriously - which means under ordinary circumstance that they should support selecting the candidate who leads in overall pledged delegates. However should we leave the realm of ordinary circumstances, they should not hand over the nomination to any candidate who is sinking fast due to serious real (not just speculated upon) liabilities that will, with a high degree of certainty, drag our party down to defeat in November. I am both a small and large D Democrat. If Hillary enters the convention with a lead in pledged delegates the nomination should be hers unless there is a majority of delegates that believe that her actions have disqualified her for that position

You can say Hillary must retire. I can say Leonard Peltier must be freed. It is important to say what we believe, but saying something, by itself, doesn't make it happen. We should work toward our beliefs both in the long and short term but success is never guaranteed. You know this all as well as I do . If Hillary enters the Convention without a lead in pledged delegates, or if it becomes clear to the Super Delegates before the Convention that Hillary has self inflicted mortal political wounds, she should not get the nomination. That's the whole ball game and the unpledged delegates, under Party rules, are the ones who will make that final determination in a mere matter of weeks; not me, not you. Until then let all the voters speak and Bernie should/will press forward with his message and his case into the Party Convention, and in the case of his message at least, well beyond that.

I will support either Bernie or Hillary against Trump in the fall, he is a very dangerous and unstable demagogue. I honestly admit though that I will be unable to fight with anything approaching the same degree of conviction should our nominee be Hillary rather than Bernie, and I make no apology for that reality.

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
14. Naw -- THE BIG SHUTDOWN will come soon enough
Sat May 28, 2016, 11:25 PM
May 2016

Once the primary is over issues will be a thing of the past.. It will be Only Clinton can save us from the Big Bad Trump now.....24/7

IT is HER Democratic Party Now......SO sit down, shut up and don't criticize because....you know, the Big Bad Trump.

Nah I'm not wanting to see that any sooner than necessary. And then I'm tuning this gawdawful "election" out.

(pLease note my obligatory disclaimer below)


Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

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