[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]It may save my sanity between now and Tuesday night. Seriously.

Thanks!

A Large elderly population should not vote for the guy looking to gut their medicare.

How can you vote against your best interests like that?

believe the Romney/Ryan bs that President Obama raided Medicare.

You just know there's going to be a terrible back and forth on the networks as they all want to drag it out yet they don't want to be the last to call a state.

Evidently your arithmetic in no better than Scott Rasmussen's. As of Friday there were nearly 400,000 more democratic voters who had early voted than republicans. This is nearly twice the number advantage in early voting as we saw at the same point in 2008.

I'm not saying that we have won as yet, and certainly anything can and may happen by the end of Tuesday. But we damn sure have a better chance of going blue than anyone thought possible prior to the conventions.

Why do so many people write off NC as inherently red??? The majority of governors in the last 30 years were Democrats. Honestly it amazes me just how lazy minded, biased and ignorant some allegedly informed people can be! Shame on you!

Give me a break. Public Policy Polling originated in and operates in North Carolina has NC as an even split. How is that NOT a swing state?

His analysis of the polls in this case is way off, sadly. Again this looks like a bias thing. I have lived here since 1980 and worked the in Democratic Party since that time. Those who are calling it over have never been here and need some help understanding how the "ground game" thing works. You get people to go out and vote. They aren't persuaded by polls. They don't write columns for NYT or WAPO, or MSNBC to satisfy some ingrained attitudes about "Dixie". They are voting for their lives, their neighbors, their children, their parents and they are REAL people.

Take that lame attitude out and get it retreaded.

Whoever wins NC, the margin of victory will be less than that in NM, MI, and PA. The states which will be the closest are probably FL, CO, and NC.

By the numbers and its recent previous history it has been all along, although some with limited vision have cast it otherwise.

I keep reading elsewhere that Obama is only 5 or 6 points ahead of Romney, and with the margin of error at 3 or 4%, that is still pretty close.

I might have to wait until late Tuesday afternoon before I start eating anymore popcorn.

If Obama leads a poll by 5% when the margin of error is 4%, that means there is a 97.5% chance that Obama actually leads by 1% or more, and the chance that Romney actually leads is the same as the chance that Obama leads by more than 10%. Of course there are questions about sampling error, but if you accept that the sample is random, a 4% margin of error means that there is a 95% chance that the real number is within 4% of the measured number, with the other 5% evenly split in opposite directions.

I'm thinking Indiana and NC will flip. Florida is going to be close.